National Hurricane Center
469 AXNT20 KNHC 141759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 159 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A low pressure system centered near 37N47W is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms east of the center. Environmental conditions may become conducive for some development by Wednesday. The system is forecast to move NE over colder waters Thursday and Friday. There is medium potential for this low to become a subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W, from 08N to 20N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered rain showers are in the monsoon trough area from 07N to 10N between 26W and 33W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W from 08N to 21N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the monsoon trough area from 07N to 09N between 46W and 55W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 10N to 22N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of N Hispaniola from 18N to 22N between 68W and 72W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W from 10N to 22N, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection along the monsoon trough south of 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 10N30W to 09N42W. The ITCZ continues from 09N42W to 08N450W to the coast of South America near 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 37W and 41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation is over southern Mexico near 18N100W. Isolated showers are over the area. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico south of 24N and west of 90W. A broad upper level anticyclonic circulation centered near 28N94W spans the rest of the area. Widely scattered moderate rain showers are over the NE Gulf from 26N to 31N between 82W and 87W. On the surface a surface trough is over the NE Gulf from 31N86W to 28N90W. Another surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 20N95W to 17N94W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough axis. A nocturnal trough will develop during the evening hours in the Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will accompany this trough. The trough will become weaker by the middle of the week, allowing the winds to diminish. A surface ridge will support light to moderate E to SE winds across the remainder of the basin through Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation is along the coast of N Cuba near 23N78W. Upper level diffluence is over Hispaniola enhancing convection. Another upper level cyclonic circulation is over the NW Caribbean near 19N85W. Upper level diffluence is over Honduras and Nicaragua enhancing convection. The monsoon trough is along 09N between 73W and 85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of 12N between 74W and 84W, to include N Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. Surface high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through tonight. Winds along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, have begun to subside, and continue during the middle of the week as western Atlantic Ocean high pressure slowly weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is off the coast of N Florida. Scattered showers are over the W Atlantic N of the N Bahamas and W of 77W. A large upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N59W. Upper level diffluence E of the center is enhancing convection near 29N50W. A surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high pressure center near 30N67W to N Florida. The tail end of a surface trough extends from 32N50W to 26N55W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the trough. Another 1025 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 38N25W producing fair weather. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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STORM INVEST 98L
179 ABNT20 KNHC 141725 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A non-tropical low appears to be forming to the east of the larger complex low pressure system centered several hundred miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland. This new low could acquire some subtropical characteristics by Wednesday. However, after that time the low should be moving northeastward over colder waters and be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
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