Tuesday, August 21, 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 21, 2018...0327 PM EDT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION BY NHC
116 
AXNT20 KNHC 211803
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 PM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is just inland to just offshore the coast of 
Africa with its axis near 17W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The 
wave is embedded within a very dry and stable environment. Only 
isolated moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm east of 
the wave axis from 11N to 14N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from 
05N37W to 13N38W to 19N37W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave 
is also embedded within a very dry and stable environment caused
by Saharan Air Layer outbreak migrating westward across the
central and eastern Atlantic. Only isolated moderate convection 
is noted within 60 nm either side of the wave axis from 10N to
11.5N.

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean has its axis from 
well inland Venezuela north-northeastward to 15N65W and to the
proximity of the Virgin Islands. It is moving westward near 
16 kt. Scattered moderate convection trails the wave from 09N
to 11N east to near 58W. 

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis extending along 
85W/86W and south of 21N, moving westward near 15 kt. Only 
isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm east of 
the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from coast of Senegal near 14N16W
to 10N23W to 09N31W and to 09N41W, where latest scatterometer data 
indicates that the  ITCZ axis begins and continues to 09N50W to 
09N60W. No significant convection is noted. Only isolated showers 
and thunderstorms are seen within 120 nm north of axis between 43W
and 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging reaches across the northern Gulf of Mexico along
roughly 27N, maintaining light to gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft
seas. Gentle to moderate easterly flow is noted elsewhere south 
of the ridge. Latest NWS mosaic radar display shows isolated
showers and thunderstorms across much of the eastern part of the 
gulf, mainly due to a weak trough over that area. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are observed over the far southwest 
section of the gulf in association with the Yucatan Peninsula 
trough that typically moves offshore across the southwestern gulf
late at night and into the morning hours, with the added factor 
of an upper-level low located just east of the coast of Mexico at 
22N97W. Expect for this convective activity to remain active 
through tonight. Otherwise, high pressure ridging will remain 
across the northern gulf waters, with the associated gradient 
producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient across the area will maintain fresh to 
strong winds over the south central Caribbean off the coast of 
Colombia and across the Gulf of Venezuela through Thu. Moderate
to fresh trades will continue elsewhere through Thu. 

The tropical wave along 85W/86W will move across the rest of the 
western Caribbean this evening before moving inland Central
America. The tropical wave along 65W will move across the rest
of the eastern Caribbean  through Wed night and enter the eastern
part of the central Caribbean Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Over the western Atlantic, a surface trough is analyzed from near
30N74W to the central Bahamas. An upper-level trough extends from
an upper-level low at 31N66W to the central Bahamas, and to 
central Cuba as a shear axis. Another trough extends from 32N59W 
to 27N68W, and another one extends from near 32N45W to 28N50W. A 
small surface trough extends from near 31N54W to 28N56W. With
these features in place along with a moist and unstable
environment, the result is scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity over the waters north of 24N between 60W and 75W, with 
the most concentrated activity observed north of 27N and 
between 70W and 76W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are 
elsewhere west of 58W. A 1025 mb high center is analyzed north of
these troughs at 32.5N59W, with a ridge extending westward to
Bermuda, and southwestward from there to east-central Florida 
High pressure ridging will continue over the basin through the 
next several days. The trough extending across the central Bahamas
will continue westward through this evening. The aforementioned 
shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to persist through 
Wed.

Over the eastern part of the basin, a 1028 mb high is centered 
near 34N42W, supporting generally moderate north to northeast 
winds north of 20N. Saharan dust and associated dry air, as also
mentioned above under Tropical Waves, is noted mainly east of 
about 56W on GOES-16 Saharan Air Layer animation is inhibiting 
convection from developing across the eastern and central Atlantic
waters.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
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QUIET....QUIET TROPICAL ATLANTIC!
 
 

MAJOR HURRICANE LANE IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AUG 21, 2018

CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE LANE
WTPA32 PHFO 211757
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
800 AM HST Tue Aug 21 2018
 
...MAJOR HURRICANE LANE MOVING WEST...EXPECTED TO TURN 
TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 152.6W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
*Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
*Hawaii County
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
 
Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Tropical Storm or
Hurricane Watches will likely be issued later today or tonight.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located by
U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 14.1
North, longitude 152.6 West. Lane is moving toward the west near 
9 mph (14 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue
through tonight, with a slight decrease in forward speed. A turn
toward the northwest is expected Wednesday into Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Lane will pass close to Hawaii and
Maui Counties on Thursday and Thursday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250
km/h) with higher gusts.  Lane remains a powerful Category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slight
weakening is expected during the next couple of days, but Lane is
forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane as it draws closer to the
Hawaiian Islands.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).
 
The minimum central pressure as recently measured by the hurricane
hunter aircraft is 940 mb (27.76 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area on Thursday.
 
RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected
to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from Wednesday into the
weekend, leading to flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected
to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.
 
SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands this week. These swells will produce large and potentially
damaging surf along exposed south and west facing shorelines.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Jacobson
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Lane 
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 21, 2018... 1006 AM EDT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION BY NHC
452 
AXNT20 KNHC 211205
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from 
05N36W to 13N36W to 19N54W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 25W
and 32W.

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean has its axis along
63W/64W south of 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection trails the wave within 30 nm of a line from 
11N59W to 11N62W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis extending along 83W 
and south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Only isolated
showers and thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm east of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from coast of Senegal near 14N16W
to 10N20W, then to 08N40W. The intertropical convergence zone
continues westward to the mouth of the Orinoco River near 09N61W.
No significant convection is noted.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging reaches across the northern Gulf of Mexico along
roughly 27N, maintaining light to gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft
seas. Gentle to moderate easterly flow is noted elsewhere south 
of the ridge. Latest NWS mosaic radar display shows isolated
showers and thunderstorms across much of the eastern part of the 
gulf, mainly due to a weak trough over that area. Scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms are active along the coast of 
Mexico in the far southwest Gulf, related to the normal 
evening/overnight trough that sets up off Yucatan and moves 
westward, but also largely enhanced by an upper low centered over 
the southwest Gulf.

The Yucatan surface trough will persist each afternoon, then 
drift westward across the southwest gulf waters during the 
overnight hours accompanied by a fresh east to southeast wind 
shift with the trough dissipating along 96W during the late 
mornings. Otherwise, high pressure ridging will remain 
across the northern gulf waters, with the associated gradient
producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient across the area will maintain fresh to 
strong winds over the south central Caribbean off the coast of 
Colombia and across the Gulf of Venezuela through Thu. Moderate
to fresh trades will continue elsewhere through Thu. 

The tropical wave along 83W will move across the rest of 
the western Caribbean tonight. The tropical wave along 63W/64W
will move across the central Caribbean late Tue through Wed night
and enter the eastern part of the central Caribbean Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Over the western Atlantic, a surface trough is analyzed from near
30N72W to 24N76W in the central Bahamas, supported in part by an 
upper trough over the same area. Another trough extends from 
32N57W to 27N67W, and another one from near 32N42W to 24N51W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 23N
between 59W and 75W. The subtropical ridge is displaced slightly 
north to along 31N, north of the troughs. 

High pressure ridging will continue over the basin through the
next several days. The trough extending across the central 
Bahamas will continue westward through this evening. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms along and near the trough will 
affect mainly the western and northwestern sections of the Bahamas
through tonight.

Farther east, 1027 mb ridging is centered near 34N41W, supporting
generally moderate north to northeast winds north of 20N. Saharan
dust and associated dry air noted mainly east of 50W is 
inhibiting convection from developing across the eastern and 
central Atlantic.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
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The tropical Atlantic remains quiet!