HURRICANE LANE CONTINUES TO MOVE ON TRACK AUG 18, 2018

Replaced forecast map with
Correct latest track.

WTPA32 PHFO 222048
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number  33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 22 2018
 
...HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REMAIN VULNERABLE AS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
LANE PASSES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 155.9W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
 
Interests in the the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 155.9 West. Lane is moving
toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn
toward the northwest is expected today followed by a more northward
motion on Thursday. A turn back toward the west is expected on
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lane will move very
close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands from Thursday through
Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Lane is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. A steady weakening trend is forecast to begin
today, but Lane is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it
approaches the islands.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb (27.61 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning late tonight into early Thursday morning,
with hurricane conditions expected somewhere within the warning area
on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
Hurricane Watch area beginning Thursday into Thursday night, with
hurricane conditions possible late Thursday night into Friday.
 
RAINFALL: Rainbands from Hurricane Lane are moving ashore on
the Puna and Kau districts. Excessive rainfall associated with Lane
is expected to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from late
today into the weekend. This could lead to major flash flooding and
landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches with localized amounts in excess of 20 inches over
the Hawaiian Islands.
 
SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands, spreading across the island chain today and tonight. 
These swells will produce very large and potentially damaging surf
along exposed west, south and east facing shorelines.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster R Ballard

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?product=5day_cone_with_line&stormid=EP142018

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 22, 2018... 0429 PM EDT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION BY NHC

093 
AXNT20 KNHC 221805
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Wed Aug 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W/26W 
from 05N-20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is embedded 
within a very dry and stable environment inhibiting convection at 
this time. Only isolated weak showers and thunderstorms are seen
within 120-180 nm east of the wave from 10N to 11N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending along 45W
from 05N-19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is also 
embedded within a very dry and stable environment caused by 
Saharan Air Layer outbreak of the past several days that is 
spreading westward across the central and eastern Atlantic. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm east of the wave 
from 08N to 10N. Isolated showers are within 180 nm east of
the wave from 14N to 19N.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 66W
south of 19N to well inland Venezuela. It is moving westward near
10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
increasing east of the wave from 21N to 16N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 76W/77W from 
09N to 20N, moving westward near 15 kt. Previous deep convection 
with this wave has dissipated. Only isolated showers and
thunderstorms are see within 120 nm east of the wave from 18N 
to 20N.

The tropical wave previously along 92W has moved into the eastern 
Pacific. Please refer to the eastern Pacific Tropical Weather
Discussion for details on this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near 
14N16W to 10N23W to 09N35W to 09N44W. The ITCZ axis begins at 
08N46W and continues to 10N55W to 10N61W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ axis between 45W 
and 55W, and north of the monsoon trough within 30 nm of 11N39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1020 mb is analyzed near 26N94w as of 15Z, while 
a surface trough extends from southeastern Georgia southwestward
to the northeastern gulf and continues to near 27N91W. The 
nocturnal Yucatan Peninsula trough has moved across the 
southwestern gulf during the late night and early morning hours, 
and is analyzed from near 21N96W to 18N94W as of 15Z. The present 
pressure gradient across the gulf generally supports light to 
gentle winds throughout, except for gentle to moderate winds south
of 26N and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft. Scattered showers 
and thunderstorms are observed over the far southwest section of 
the gulf south of 21N and west of 94W in association with the 
nocturnal trough that moved offshore the Yucatan Peninsula during 
the overnight hours. Other scattered showers and thunderstorm 
activity continues to increase over the north-central gulf in 
association with the aforementioned surface trough, with further 
support from an upper-level trough that is dropping southward 
across the norther gulf section. The activity over the far 
southwest is expected to weaken during the afternoon. It should 
then re-develop  tonight and Thu night as the surface trough 
again moves across those same waters. The activity over the north-
central gulf should continue to increase through this afternoon 
and into the evening hours. Otherwise, relatively weak high 
pressure ridging will remain across the northern gulf waters, with
the associated gradient producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. An upper level trough extends from
eastern Cuba southwestward to just east of northeastern Honduras.
Water vapor imagery indicates plentiful deep layer moisture along
and to the northwest of this trough, and it is where isolated 
showers and thunderstorms are occurring. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection has increased over the far southwestern
Caribbean south of 11N between 77W and 82W mainly due to low-level
wind speed convergence, with the added factor of the eastern 
segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough that stretches east-
northeastward to the far southwestern Caribbean along 09N and to 
the typical climatological low found over northwestern Colombia 
presently located just offshore that coast at 09N76W.

A slighter tighter pressure gradient behind the tropical wave 
along 77W will help induce strong to near gale force northeast to 
east trade winds over the south-central Caribbean waters off the 
coast of Colombia and across the Gulf of Venezuela tonight. The 
strong trades are forecast to reach northward to 15N. Moderate to 
fresh trades will continue elsewhere through Fri as little overall
changes are expected with the present synoptic set-up through 
Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the 
section above for details. A surface trough is analyzed from 
29N61W to 21N68W. A shear axis is evident by model and satellite 
winds to be situated northwest of the trough from 32N65W to 25N70W
to east-central Cuba. Satellite imagery shows increasing scattered 
showers and thunderstorms within 180 nm to the northwest of the 
trough between 65W and 69W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms 
are seen over the western portion of the basin west of about 75W.
This activity as well as that to the northwest of the surface
trough are expected to last through tonight and into Thu. Another
trough moving westward around 15 kt is along 52W from 17N to 30N.
No deep convection is noted with this trough, only isolated 
showers within 120 nm east of the trough from 21N to 26N. A 1025 
mb high center is analyzed north of 31N and extends a ridge across
the remainder of the basin. Saharan dust and associated dry air, 
although not as dense as in previous days, is noted mainly east of
about 60W on GOES-16 GEO color dust imagery. The dust is keeping 
convection rather limited, to non-existent, outside across the 
eastern and central Atlantic waters, except as described above 
near the the ITCZ region.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

------------------------------------------------------------------

NHC is now also monitoring a future wave that is forecast to move

off the the African coast by tomorrow then track west over the 

central Atlantic where conditions could become more favorable for

tropical cyclone formation by next week...RTW 

https://ralphstropicalweather.com/

 

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 22, 2018... 1205 PM EDT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION BY NHC

391 
AXNT20 KNHC 221205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed Aug 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 24W/25W 
from 05N-20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is embedded 
within a very dry and stable environment inhibiting convection at 
this time. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending along 44W
from 05N-19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is also 
embedded within a very dry and stable environment caused by 
Saharan Air Layer outbreak migrating westward across the central 
and eastern Atlantic. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
within 120 nm either side of the wave from 09N to 11N.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 64W 
from 07N-19N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are east of the wave from 11N to 13N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 74W/75W from
09N to 20N, moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is between eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and over some 
sections of northern Colombia.

The tropical wave that move inland the Yucatan Peninsula yesterday
is approaching 92W, with its northern extent reaching near 20N. It 
is moving westward near 15 kt. Previous numerous showers and
thunderstorms observed over the western Yucatan Peninsula have 
diminished to isolated showers and thunderstorms.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near 
17N16W to 11N24W to 10N34W to 06N42W. The ITCZ axis begins at 
06N45W to 08N53W to 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 180 nm north of the ITCZ axis between 46W and 53W. Isolated
moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the monsoon trough 
axis between 29W and 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico along  
26N anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 26N92W. This is 
maintaining light to gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas. Gentle to 
moderate easterly flow is noted elsewhere south of the ridge. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed over the far 
southwest section of the gulf south of 21N and west of 94W in 
association with a trough that moved offshore the Yucatan 
Peninsula during the overnight hours. This activity is expected
to remain active during the morning before weakening during 
the afternoon. It should then reform tonight and Thu night 
as the surface trough again moves across those same waters.
Relatively weak high pressure ridging will remain across the 
northern gulf waters, with the associated gradient producing 
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. An upper level trough extends across
the west Caribbean enhancing convection across Cuba and adjacent
waters north of 18N and west of 75W. The pressure gradient across
the area will maintain fresh to strong winds over the south 
central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia and across the Gulf of
Venezuela through Thursday. Moderate to fresh trades will 
continue elsewhere through this period also. Little change is 
expected with the present synoptic set-up through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Over the western Atlantic, a surface trough is analyzed from near
28N78W to 25N79W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted 
near this trough affecting the northern Bahamas. Two tropical 
waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for 
details. Another trough extends along 51W from 21N to 30N. No deep
convection is noted with this trough. A 1025 mb high center is 
analyzed north of 31N and extends a ridge across the remainder of 
the basin. The trough extending across the central Bahamas will 
continue westward during today. Another trough extends from 28N61W
to 21N67W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 24N
to 28N between 62W and 70W. Expect foe this activity to continue 
through tonight. Saharan dust and associated dry air, as also 
mentioned above under Tropical Waves, is noted mainly east of 
about 60W on GOES-16 Saharan Air Layer animation is inhibiting 
convection from developing across the eastern and central Atlantic
waters.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

-------------------------------------------------------------------

...Although  nothing is showing at this time. I am monitoring 40°- 30° West 

for tropical cyclone formation in the coming days All remains quiet for now!...

RTW 

https://ralphstropicalweather.com/ 

HURRICAN LANE SLOWLY MAKING THAT TURN TOWARD THE HAWAIIN ISLAND AUG 22, 2018

POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS

WTPA32 PHFO 221155
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
200 AM HST Wed Aug 22 2018
 
...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 155.0W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Oahu
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
 
Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Tropical Storm or
Hurricane Watches or Warnings may be issued tonight or Wednesday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 155.0 West. Lane is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest is
expected later today, followed by a turn to the north-northwest on
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Lane will move very
close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands from Thursday through
Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Lane is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, but Lane is forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane as it
draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb (27.61 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
Hurricane Warning area beginning late tonight into
early Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions expected
somewhere within the warning area on Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area beginning
Thursday into Thursday night, with hurricane conditions possible
late Thursday night into Friday.
 
RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected
to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from late today
into the weekend, leading to flash flooding and landslides. Lane is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with
isolated amounts greater than 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.
 
SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands, beginning this morning on the Big Island, spreading
across the remainder of the island chain on today. These
swells will produce large and potentially damaging surf along
exposed west, south and east facing shorelines.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Powell

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Lane 

-------------------------------------------------------------------