Friday, August 24, 2018

HURRICANE LANE UPDATE AUG 24, 2018...0800 AM HST

WTPA32 PHFO 241807
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 40A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
800 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018
 
...HURRICANE LANE LURKING JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TO SOME AREAS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 158.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...274 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...3 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should already be complete.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was
estimated by radar and satellite to be near latitude 18.8 North,
longitude 158.0 West. Lane is moving toward the north near 2 mph (3
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
tonight. A turn toward the west is anticipated on Saturday, with an
increase in forward speed. On the latest forecast track, the center
of Lane will move dangerously close to portions of the central
Hawaiian islands later today and tonight.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (170 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast later today and
tonight, but Lane is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it
approaches the islands. Further weakening is expected on Saturday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

A weather station near Waimea on the Big Island recently reported
sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) with gusts to 51 mph (82 km/h). 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are already occurring on the Big
Island, Maui County and Oahu. These conditions will likely persist
today. Hurricane conditions are expected over some areas of Maui
County and Oahu starting tonight. Tropical storm or hurricane
conditions are possible on Kauai starting tonight or Saturday.
 
RAINFALL: Rain bands will continue to overspread the Hawaiian
Islands well ahead of Lane. Excessive rainfall associated with this
slow moving hurricane will continue to impact the Hawaiian Islands
into the weekend, leading to catastrophic and life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts up to 40
inches possible over portions of the Hawaiian Islands. Over 30
inches of rain has already fallen at a couple locations on the
windward side of the Big Island.
 
SURF: Very large swells generated by the slow moving hurricane will
severely impact the Hawaiian Islands into this weekend. These swells
will produce life-threatening and damaging surf along exposed
shorelines, particularly today through Saturday. In addition, a
prolonged period of extreme surf will also likely lead to
significant coastal erosion.
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster R Ballard
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Lane



5day Wind Field Radius
Present Wind field Radius
Radar below are from different islands


Satellite and radar combined
Satellite no radar overlay
Water vapor satellite
Latest guidance models
Late or previous model run
GFS Ensemble
 Video looping through different overlays and animation combined

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 24, 2018...0345 PM EDT

Tropical Weather Discussion by NHC
249 
AXNT20 KNHC 241706
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
106 PM EDT Fri Aug 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa along 18W from 04N- 
20N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is in a moist environment 
and has 700 mb support. Scattered showers are from 11N-21N between
16W-26W. 



A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W from 02N-
17N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is embedded within a very
dry and stable environment which is inhibiting significant 
convection at this time. Scattered showers are noted where the 
wave meets the monsoon trough along and south of 10N. 

An E Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 63W from 02N- 
20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is also embedded 
within a very dry and stable environment caused by Saharan Air 
Layer that is spreading westward. Scattered moderate convection 
is near Trinidad from 09N-11N between 60W-64W.

A W Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 82W south of 20N 
to 03N81W. The wave is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is over the southern portion of the 
wave from 08N-13N between 75W-84W. 

A tropical wave has its axis along 96W south of 20N, moving 
westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are over the Bay of 
Campeche S of 20N. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N16W to 
08N26W to 09N39W. The ITCZ begins W of a tropical wave from 
07N43W to 04N51W. A 1012 mb low is centered on the monsoon trough 
near 09N39W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the
low center. Isolated moderate convection is along the monsoon
trough from 03N-06N between 10W-40W. Scattered showers are along
the ITCZ from 02N-06N between 40W-48W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends across N Florida from 30N80W
to 28N83W. Scattered showers are over the Florida Peninsula. An 
approaching tropical wave is advecting scattered showers oveer W 
Cuba and the Straits of Florida. The Bay of Campeche has similar 
showers due to another tropical wave. The remainder of the Gulf 
has fair weather. The pressure gradient across the Gulf supports 
light winds throughout, with a wind shift along the frontal 
system. In the upper levels, an upper level high centered over 
southern Texas near 30N98W is producing NE upper level winds over
the Gulf with upper level moisture. Expect the front to fully 
dissipate during the next six hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the 
section above for details. An upper-level low is centered near the
Gulf of Honduras at 17N85W. The low is enhancing scattered 
showers near the upper-low center, and is enhancing convection
over the SW Caribbean with upper level diffluence. 

Expect strong nocturnal pulses of wind through the upcoming 
weekend along the coast of Colombia and Venezuela with seas 
building to 9 ft. A new tropical wave will reach 55W on Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the 
section above for details. A stationary front is off the coast of
northern Florida from 32N76W to 30N80W. Scattered moderate 
convection is north of 26N and west of 70W. An upper level low 
is centeredE of the Bahamas near 24N71W enhancing convection. A 
surface trough extends over the central Atlantic from 31N38W to 
24N40W. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm of the trough. 
Saharan dust and associated dry air is noted mainly east of 60W 
on GOES-16 GEO color dust imagery. The dust is suppressing 
convection across most of the tropical Atlantic waters from 15N-
30N. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
----------------------------------------------------------------
Tropics remain quiet!  RTW 


HURRICANE LANE STILL A SERIOUS FLOOD PROBLEM FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AUG 24, 2018

HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY
WTPA32 PHFO 241452
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number  40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
500 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018
 
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 158.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 158.0 West. Lane is moving
toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west is
anticipated on Saturday, with an increase in forward speed. On the
latest forecast track, the center of Lane will move dangerously
close to portions of the central Hawaiian islands later today and
tonight. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is now category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional weakening is forecast later
today and tonight, but Lane is expected to remain a dangerous
hurricane as it approaches the islands. Further weakening is
expected on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are already occurring on the Big
Island, Maui County and Oahu. These conditions will likely persist
today. Hurricane conditions are expected over some areas of Maui
County and Oahu starting tonight. Tropical storm or hurricane
conditions are possible on Kauai starting tonight or Saturday.
 
RAINFALL: Rain bands will continue to overspread the Hawaiian
Islands well ahead of Lane. Excessive rainfall associated with this
slow moving hurricane will continue to impact the Hawaiian Islands
into the weekend, leading to catastrophic and life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts up to 40
inches possible over portions of the Hawaiian Islands. Over 30
inches of rain has already fallen at a couple locations on the
windward side of the Big Island.
 
SURF: Very large swells generated by the slow moving hurricane will
severely impact the Hawaiian Islands into this weekend. These swells
will produce life-threatening and damaging surf along exposed
shorelines, particularly today through Saturday. In addition, a
prolonged period of extreme surf will also likely lead to
significant coastal erosion.
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Houston
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Lane 
 











 


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 24, 2018... 1114 AM EDT

Tropical Weather Discussion by NHC
311 
AXNT20 KNHC 241204
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Fri Aug 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along the coast of W Africa along 16W from
04N-20N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is in a moist
environment and has 700 mb support. Scattered showers are from
11N-21N between 14W-24W.  

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 39W from 02N-
17N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is embedded within a very
dry and stable environment which is inhibiting significant 
convection at this time. Scattered showers are noted where the 
wave meets the monsoon trough along and south of 10N. 

An E Caribbean tropical wave has its axis extending along 61W 
from 02N-20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is also 
embedded within a very dry and stable environment caused by 
Saharan Air Layer that is spreading westward across the Atlantic. 
Scattered moderate convection is near Trinidad from 09N-11N
between 60W-64W.

A W Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 80W south of 20N 
to 03N79W. The wave is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is over the southern portion of the
wave from 08N-13N between 75W-84W. 

A tropical wave has its axis along 94W south of 20N, moving 
westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are over the Bay of 
Campeche S of 20N.  

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N16W to 
08N26W to 07N39W. The ITCZ beginsW of a tropical wave from 07N41W
to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-08N between
10W-32W. Scattered showers are from 02N-08N between 38W-45W. 


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends across N Florida from 30N80W
to 28N83W. A pre- frontal trough extends over central Florida and
the E Gulf of Mexico from 27N80W to 26N86W. Scattered showers are
over the Florida Peninsula. An approaching tropical wave is
advecting scattered showers oveer W Cuba and the Straits of
Florida. The Bay of Campeche has similar showers due to another
tropical wave. The remainder of the Gulf has fair weather. The 
pressure gradient across the Gulf supports light winds throughout,
with a wind shift along the frontal system. In the upper levels, 
an upper level high centered over southern Texas is producing NE 
upper level winds over the Gulf with upper level moisture. Expect 
the front to fully dissipate during the next 12 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the 
section above for details. An upper-level low is centered near the
Cayman Islands at 18N82W. The low is enhancing scattered 
showers near the upper-low center, together with a tropical wave 
along 80W. 

Expect strong nocturnal pulses of wind through the upcoming 
weekend along the coast of Colombia and Venezuela with seas 
building to 9 ft. The next tropical wave will enter the eastern
portion of the basin during the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the 
section above for details. A stationary front is off the coast of
northern Florida from 32N76W to 30N80W. Scattered moderate 
convection is north of 28N and west of 76W. To the east, scattered
showers are over the west Atlantic from 25N-30N between 67W-74W 
due to an upper-level low centered near 25N72W. A surface trough 
extends over the central Atlantic from 24N57W to 21N60W. Scattered
showers are noted along the trough. Another trough extends from 
32N34W to 26N37W. Saharan dust and associated dry air, although 
not as dense as in previous days, is noted mainly east of 60W on 
GOES-16 GEO color dust imagery. The dust is keeping convection 
limited to non-existent across most of the Atlantic waters.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Monday!  The 
storm invest off the African coast which is another wave with a low 
chance for development as it moves swiftly across the Atlantic.
Some models suggest maybe some development when it slows 
down as it tracks either north of the Islands or as it enters the eastern 
Caribbean by the end of this month... RTW