Friday, September 7, 2018

FLORENCE, STORM INVEST 92L, T.D. EIGHT AND INVEST 94L UPDATE SEPT 7, 2018

Since there are to many weather systems I will ask you to click on NHC link so you can read text advisory.  I will post graphics for now and add my remarks on top of my graphic maps...RTW

FLORENCE UPDATE BY NHC
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Carolina's northward should prepared for the possibility of a major hurricane landfall if tracks verify
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/ 








POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT SEPT 7, 2018... 1249 PM EDT

PTC EIGHT UPDATE BY NHC
548 
WTNT33 KNHC 071434
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE
ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 17.8W
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cabo Verde Islands has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for the southern islands of Santiago, Fogo and
Brava.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 13.1 North, longitude 17.8 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward to west-
northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is
expected during the next 72 hours. On the forecast track, the
disturbance is expected to move near the southern Cabo Verde Islands
on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the
system is expected to become a tropical depression or tropical storm
later today.

Conditions are conducive for the disturbance to become a tropical
depression or tropical storm later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area on Sunday.

RAINFALL:  The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches
across the southern Cabo Verde Islands.  This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
-------------------------------------------------------------------


FLORENCE UPDATE SEPT 7 2018...1122 AM EDT

FLORENCE UPDATE BY NHC
632 
WTNT31 KNHC 071442
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

...FLORENCE'S WEAKENING APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED FOR THE MOMENT...
...RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 51.8W
ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 51.8 West.  Florence is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Sunday.  A west-northwestward
motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in intensity is expected during the next day
or so, but restrengthening is forecast over the weekend.  Florence
could become a hurricane again by Saturday night or Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Florence will begin to affect Bermuda
later today and will reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the
weekend.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
--------------------------------------------------------------------



 NHC official forecast track a tad to the left of previous forecast.  This seems to
have been the trend.  RTW
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/ 
Latest Guidance still a bit spread out but the focus seems to be the Carolinas
and points north of there.  RTW
 CMC model runs have been pretty consistent on a track toward Cape Hatteras.  RTW
 The NHC H-Models seems to be trending left of previous model run as well.  RTW
 UKMET has been consistent with a west to a west-northwest track while the
Hurricane Center models to the right of the UKMET and a track toward the 
Carolina's.  RTW


 

RUNNING BEHIND ON WEBSITE UPDATE! SEPT 7, 2018...1055 AM EDT


Sorry I been running behind this morning on my website update.  I been adding sections for the new invest 93L and I still have a few things to add.  I will stop this now and begin Florence forecast map and post that then go on to the tropical weather map.  Bare with me and will try to have it all done within an hour or so.

Thanks for your patience
RTW