Sunday, September 9, 2018

FLORENCE GRADUALLY STRENGTHING AS IT HAS IN SIGHTS ON THE EAST COAST SEPT 9, 2018... 0506 PM EDT

FLORENCE UPDATE BY NHC
203 
WTNT31 KNHC 092045
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS FLORENCE STRENGTHENING...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 57.0W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 57.0 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue today.  A west-northwestward motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected by Monday, and that motion is
forecast to continue through mid-week.  On the forecast track, the
center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean
between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach
the southeastern coast of the United States on Thursday.

Aircraft and satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence
is forecast to rapidly strengthen to a major hurricane by Monday,
and is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane
through Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).  Florence is forecast to become larger over the next few
days.

The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
and satellite data is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete ad
visory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
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ISAAC UPDATE SEPT 9,2018. 0443 PM EDT

ISAAC UPDATE BY NHC
974 
WTNT33 KNHC 092032
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

...HELENE BECOMES A HURRICANE SOUTHWEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 26.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cabo Verde Islands has discontinued the
Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for the Cabo Verde
islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 26.0 West. Helene is moving
toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a turn toward the
west-northwest is expected on Monday, with a continued
west-northwestward motion through Tuesday.  On the forecast track,
the center of Helene will continue to move away from the Cabo Verde
Islands.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over the southern Cabo Verde Islands through today,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.  This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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FLORENCE TRACKS AND MODELS

FLORENCE UPDATE
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Florence poised to make landfall or side swipe the Carolinas.
 Models suggesting  possible landfall anywhere from South or N.Carolina to the Outer banks.
 Previous model run had a wider spread but still suggesting from South or N. Carolina to Outer banks.
 Candian CMC model also suggesting about the same.
 H-Models also suggest South or N. Carolina.
 United Kingdom model and National Hurricane Center model are some what in agreement in this model run.  Pointing to north Carolina.
 Intensity models suggesting a cat 4 Hurricane approaching the Carolina next week.