TROPICAL UPDATE SEPT 27, 2018... 0406 PM EDT

Exposed center of Kirk approaching the islands and the thunderstorms are right behind it.

We can call this the calm before the storm in a weird way since most tropical systems you experience the outer bands ahead of the center.  In this case the center is exposed so the islands will feel a calm until the center passes then a rapid change in the weather with heavy rains, squally conditions with strong gust to tropical storm force will occur.

I been noticing in the latest color satellite imagery that the thunderstorms east and northeast of center have caught up to center and are trying to rap around the northeast side of the center. 

This could be due to a slowing of the forward speed of the storm on approach to the islands or the wind shear relaxed a bit allowing for the thunderstorms to catch up with the center.  Regardless of this, the upper level conditions are still forecast to be strong in the Caribbean and weakening and possible dissipation of this system is possible...RTW

 

TROPICAL UPDATE SEPT 27, 2018...1014 AM EDT

Kirk has not changed much over night since it is moving through a shear environment.

Strong westely and southwesterly wind shear continues to separate the thunderstorms from Kirk's enter of circulation.  In fact you can see that on this mornings visible satellite as daylight shines down on Earth.  

The center is totally exposed while all the thunderstorms are pushed off to the east of the center.  Kirk is forecast to weaken to a depression or an open wave as it moves across the islands if not sooner. Remember a healthy storm system has thunderstorms surrounding the center and this is not happening with Kirk.

However, those colder cloud tops east of center if they don't warm and weaken, will pass over the islands and bring strong Gusty winds to tropical storm force.

Localized heavy rains and squally conditions will spread across the islands later today...RTW