STORM INVESTIGATION 97E OCT 5, 2018

The Caribbean needs to monitor Storm Invest 97E which models hint that this low will cross over from the East Pacific into the Caribbean.  That would be after Invest 91L or Michael tracks north across northeast Gulf coast.  This system could follow a similar path.  However,  its Still to early to tell, but Euro model shows this system in the Northwest Caribbean...RTW

WEATHER UPDATE INVEST 91L OCT 5, 2018...0339 PM EDT

STORM INVESTIGATION 91L
Disturbance in the Caribbean probabilities are now Medium chance 40% within 48 hours and a High chance 70% within 5 days.

Latest satellite shows less organization than earlier, lack of colder cloud tops. This is mainly due to the proximity to land and a West-Southwest wind shear over the disturbance.

As this disturbance begins to track away from the land area and moves over northwest Caribbean waters some organization could begin.  As it moves over the southern Gulf waters the sea surface temps are warmer and wind shear will be less.

Depending on the track and evolution of this system, will determine how much of the weather associated with this system will affect the Florida Keys.

Interest in the Yucatan, Western Cuba, Florida Keys, Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend should closely monitor the progress of Storm Invest 91L over the weekend and coming week...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 5, 2018... 1111 AM EDT

Leslie still stuck in a blocked environment.  Leslie swells will now be reaching as far as the Eastern seaboard. 

Caribbean disturbance gradually becoming better organized and could become a depression or tropical storm this weekend or early next week.

Model tracks flip flopping,  now a track northward.  These tracks will continue doing this so they remain questionable.

High pressure in the Atlantic over a portion of Florida helps to slowly steer this system around the peripheral of he high pressure ridge.  Leslie in the Atlantic sandwiched between high pressure is not allowing Bermuda high to move much Eastward so this keeps a buffer over a portion of Florida. 

However, on a track like models suggest at this time, the cyclone would make landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.  That seems to have been the tracks for Gulf storms this season. 

I say anyone who lives from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance...RTW