Monday, October 29, 2018

OSCAR UPDATE OCT 29, 2018...EDT


Hurricane Oscar:


000
WTNT31 KNHC 291434
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 29 2018

...OSCAR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
...NO THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 58.4W
ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 58.4 West.  Oscar is moving
toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn toward the
northwest at a slower forward speed is expected later today,
followed by a motion toward the north tonight.  On Tuesday, Oscar is
forecast to begin moving toward the north-northeast with an increase
in forward speed.  The hurricane is then expected to accelerate
quickly toward the northeast through the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast through
Tuesday, followed by gradual weakening thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 29, 2018...1123 AM EDT


Tropical waves:
1.  A westward moving tropical between 35 and 30 degrees west is producing strong showers and storms south of the ITCZ or Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.  I will monitor it closely however, upper level winds ahead of this wave are hostile at this time.

2.  Another westward wave is between 54 and 50 degrees west and this wave is not showing any signs of organization...RTW