Wednesday, November 7, 2018

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 7, 2018...1137 AM EST


Monzoon Trough:

A strong area of showers and storms off the southwest African coast is rather unusual for this time of the season.  However, conditions south of the 10 degree north is where the monzoon Trough is located and that has been one of the fuel source this season that has enhanced storms in this region.  There are no signs of development, but I will monitor it as it tracks westward.

Tropical Waves:

1.  A westward moving tropical wave located near 43 degrees west is not showing signs of tropical cyclone formation.

2. A westward moving tropical wave near 68-67 degrees west is also not showing signs of formation.

3.  A westward moving tropical wave near 82 degrees west is also not showing signs of organization.

Surface Trough:

There is a surface trough near 57 degrees west that is firing up showers and storms to the southeast of the troughs axis.  Southwesterly shear over the Southern Windward islands will prevent any organization at this time.
RTW