STORM INVESTIGATION MAY 31, 2019 0424 PM EDT

NHC IS MONITORING THE YUCATAN AND SOUTHERN GULF FOR POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE COMING DAYS AND WEEK.  SOME OF THE MODELS LIKE THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODEL ARE SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AND A TRACK NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF THE WESTERN GULF.  I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND.

RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER RTW

National Hurricane Center

000
ABNT20 KNHC 311820
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure accompanied by cloudiness and showers
centered over the Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to move westward
over the southern Bay of Campeche during the weekend.  Some gradual
development of this system is possible through early next week as
long as it remains over water.  Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southern Mexico during the next few days.  Regular issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will begin at 2 AM EDT tonight with the
beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila/Zelinsky

Tropical Tidbits.com 

TODAYS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAY 31, 2019

Hail Point®‏ @HailPoint 13m13 minutes ago

Today's Updated Thunderstorm Outlook. #Hail #PDR #Roofing #Insurance #Hailpoint

LOCAL NEWS 10 MET BRYAN NORCROSS TROPICAL UPDATE MAY 31, 2019

Bryan Norcross‏ @bnorcrossWPLG 4h4 hours ago

#HurricaneSeason2019 is upon us. Blocking high pressure is keeping tropical weather south for now. In South Florida, the WPLG Local10 hurricane special with me, @MaxMayfield10, @BettyDavisWPLG and the team airs tonight. http://bit.ly/2wqClj3

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 31, 2019...1146 AM EDT

Tropical Wave:

#1 A westward moving tropical wave near 36°/37° West is not showing any signs of development.

Southern African coast south of 10° North: 

Strong monsoonal thunderstorms moving off the coast.  Conditions are not favorable in the Atlantic at this time.  Could be the next tropical wave.

Gulf Coast:

I will be monitoring the Southern and Gulf for low pressure development.  Two models suggest coastal low and possible heavy rains and maybe severe storms as it tracks north and northeast.  This is not for sure so it remains highly questionable.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected at this time.

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

STRONG TORNADO HAVE DECREASED THROUGH OUT THE YEARS

Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 23m23 minutes ago

Its not cherry picking to note that as the planet has warmed no matter what your pet cause, strong tornadoes have decreased, Tornadoes and heavy rains are not a sign of global warming, but instead enough cold both in the horizontal and vertical to cause the clash needed!

HURRICANE SUPPLY TAX FREE WEEK FOR FLORIDIANS

https:/https://twitter.com/wsvn/status/1134165640644 WSVN 7 News‏Verified account @wsvn 6m6 minutes ago

WSVN 7

TAX-FREE WEEK - With hurricane season officially starting Saturday, Floridians will have the chance to buy supplies tax-free for a full week starting tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/wsvn/status/1134165640644878340 

878340/twitter.com/wsvn/status/1134165640644878340

TROPICAL UPDATE MAY 30, 2019 1254 PM EDT

Tropical Wave:

1. A westward moving tropical wave near 33°/34° West is interacting with the Iner-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) south of 10° North.  There are no signs of organization.

Strong showers and storms off the Coast of Africa south of 10° North is mostly related with the Manzoonal Trough.  This could be the next tropical wave..

Elsewhere the tropics remain quiet.

RTW

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 29, 2019 1213 PM EDT

Tropical Waves:

1.  A westward moving tropical wave near 32°/31° West is not showing sign of organization at this time.

2. A westward moving tropical wave with the southern axis over Columbia is near 67°/66° West is also not showing signs of organization at this time.

Mazoon trough across Panama and Central America and 1011 mb low is enhancing rain and storms over this region producing flash flood potential for Southern Central America.

Numerous clouds, showers and storms over the central Caribbean maybe associated with a mid to upper level trough in the area.  I will monitor it for development although non of the models suggest development in the region at this time.

 Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

 Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.com

INVEST 91E UPDATE

Courtesy of
National Hurricane Center

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu May 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure over Central America have become less organized since
yesterday. Any development of this system during the next few
days should be slow to occur while the large circulation interacts
with land.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
likely to continue over portions of Central America as this system
remains nearly stationary through the weekend.  These rains could
cause flash flooding and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Brown

 Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.com

NOAA FORECAST CALLS FOR A NEAR NORMAL ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

Vivian Gonzalez‏Verified account @VivianGonzalez7 2h2 hours ago

NOAA forecasting a near-normal 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Ongoing El Niño to persist. @wsvn @7weather #flwx #StormStation

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 23, 2019 1135 AM EDT

TROPICAL WAVES:

1. A westward moving tropical wave near 33°-34° West is not showing any signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time.  Thunderstorms between 40°-10° West and South of 5° North are mainly associated with the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).  The southern axis of this wave seems to be enhancing thunderstorms along this area.

2.  I'm still monitoring the East Pacific and Caribbean for tropical cyclone formation the first week of June.  NHC is monitoring a low INVEST 91E inland over Central America that could move into the southern or northwest Caribbean and develop.

NOTE TO MY FOLLOWERS!
I WILL BE OUT ON VACATION WITH THE FAMILY MAY 25-28.  I WILL NOT BE DOING MY GRAPHIC DURING THOSE DAYS SINCE I WON'T HAVE MY LAP TOP WITH ME, SO I WILL USE THIRD PARTY MAPS AND POST QUICK UPDATES FROM MY PHONE WHEN POSSIBLE.  I WILL RESUME REGULAR UPDATES MAY 29, 2019.  I APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.

RTW

National Hurricane Center 

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu May 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms along portions of the west
coast of Central America and the far eastern North Pacific are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Earlier satellite wind
data indicated that the large circulation has moved inland over
Central America and the chance for development has decreased.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are likely to
continue over portions of Central America as this system remains
nearly stationary during the next few days. These rains could cause
flash flooding and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Brown

 Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.com

SEVERE WEATHER PROABILITY MORE TORNADO

Tornado Quest‏ @TornadoQuest 15m15 minutes ago

ICYMI: Public Severe Weather Outlook from @NWSSPC for parts of IL/KS/MO/OK. An active day forecast with all hazards, including tornadoes, possible. Stay weather aware regardless of what risk area you’re in: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html … #ilwx #kswx #mowx #okwx #WeatherReady

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 22, 2019 1206 PM EDT

TROPICAL OUTLOOK:

1. A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL NEAR 27°-26° WEST IS NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.  THERE ARE SCATER TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 5° NORTH BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ASSOCIATED  WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.

2.  I AM STILL MONITORING THE EAST PACIFIC AND CARIBBEAN FOR DEVELOPMENT SINCE THE GFS CONTINUES TO INSIST OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS ALL REMAINS QUIET.

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

Courtesy of tropical Tidbits.com

TOMORROWS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

Hail Point®‏ @HailPoint 14m14 minutes ago

Tomorrow's Severe Thunderstorm Outlook. #Hail #PDR #Roofing #Insurance #HailPoint

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 21, 2019 0134 PM EDT

 CORRECTION MADE TO SURFACE MAP BELOW. I ADDED ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES

Atlantic Tropical Waves:

1. A westward moving tropical wave near 21°West and 22° West is not showing signs of organization.  However, there is plenty of thunderstorm activity present south of 10° North from 53° West to 10° West.  These storms are not associated with the wave.

2.  I am still monitoring the East Pacific and the Southern Caribbean for development as the GFS model continues to insist that low pressure will for somewhere in the circled area and could develop either Sub-tropical or tropical.  I will keep you posted.

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

Courtesy of tropical Tidbits.com