TROPICAL UPDATE INVEST 91L AND TROPICAL WAVE OUTLOOK MAY 19, 2019 1009 PM EDT

The Atlantic still remains tropical wave free, however, off the southwest coast of Africa along the ITCZ (Inter-tropical convergence zone) there is a strong disturbance that has emerged off the coast between 20°-10° West.  This could be our first strong wave even though its to early for the Cavo Verde season begin.

I will watch it as I am still monitoring the East Pacific and the Southern Caribbean.  GFS continues to insist on development and could be a problem for either the Yucatan or Southern Mexico.

As for the models suggesting development from the African disturbance or area of showers and storms there are no indications of development from this system at this time.

NHC has up the chance for development for invest 90L east of the Bahamas.  Models are still suggesting a short lived storm at this time as it merges with other weather systems in the coming week.
RTW

National Hurricane Center 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 192328
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
southwest of Bermuda by Monday. This system could develop into a
short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone late tomorrow or
Tuesday while moving northward or northeastward. By Wednesday,
however, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further
development, and the system should become rapidly absorbed by a
cold front.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance Monday afternoon, if
necessary. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this
system. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by
Monday 2 AM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

 Courtesy of Tropical Tibits.com