Tuesday, May 7, 2019

FLOOD ADVISORY LOWER KEYS

FLC087-071830-
/O.NEW.KKEY.FA.Y.0004.190507T1730Z-190507T1830Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lower Keys in Monroe FL-
130 PM EDT Tue May 7 2019

The National Weather Service in Key West has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Lower Keys in Monroe County in Florida...

* Until 230 PM EDT..

* At 126 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in
the advisory area. Up to one and a half inches of rain has already
fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Key West, Boca Chica Channel Bridge, Boca Chica, Fleming Key, Key
Haven and Sunset Key.

This includes US 1 between mile markers 0 and 7.

Additional rainfall amounts of one inch are possible in the advisory
area.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause significant ponding
of water in urban areas, highways, and streets as well as other poor
drainage areas and low lying spots.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely.

LAT...LON 2454 8184 2459 8184 2462 8182 2464 8169
2453 8170 2453 8171 2452 8182

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY

FLZ073-074-173-071745-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
115 PM EDT Tue May 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM EDT...

* At 115 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking a strong thunderstorm over Miami International Airport, or
near South Miami. This storm was nearly stationary.

* Small hail and winds in excess of 45 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
Miami, Hialeah, Coral Gables, South Miami, Kendall, Doral, Hialeah
Gardens, Miami Springs, Sweetwater, West Miami, Medley,
Westchester, Gladeview, Glenvar Heights, Fountainbleau, University
Of Miami, Coconut Grove, Coral Terrace, West Little River and
Olympia Heights.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON

FLZ073-173-174-071800-
Far South Miami-Dade County FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
111 PM EDT Tue May 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

* At 111 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Princeton
to 9 miles south of Florida City. Movement was south at 10 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with these
storms.

* Locations impacted include...
Homestead, Homestead Miami Speedway, The Redland, Florida City,
Homestead Base, Naranja, Princeton, Leisure City and Homestead
Bayfront Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. If
you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck! Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY-1

SPC AC 071218

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0718 AM CDT Tue May 07 2019

   Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE
   CENTRAL/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND EXTREME WESTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO EARLY TONIGHT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Numerous severe storms are expected this afternoon into early
   tonight across the Texas Panhandle into extreme western Oklahoma.  A
   couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds will
   all be possible.

   ...Southern High Plains and vicinity through tonight...
   The synoptic front extends from northern MO to the northern TX
   Panhandle, though the effective front is located farther south into
   northern OK, as a result of outflow from overnight convection that
   has mostly weakened.  Cyclogenesis is expected today along the
   boundary into northeast NM in advance of a midlevel trough crossing
   AZ/NM, with a sharpening dryline to the south near the TX/NM border.
   Mass response to the cyclogenesis will draw boundary-layer dewpoints
   in the 60s northwestward into west TX and the TX Panhandle, beneath
   a plume of steep (8-9 C/km) midlevel lapse rates.  This will drive
   moderate-strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg) in the warm
   sector east of the dryline, with weakening convective inhibition by
   early-mid afternoon.

   Some consolidation of the residual outflows and the synoptic front
   is expected today into KS.  This front and the dryline will focus
   severe storm development today, with the earlier development
   expected near the front across the northern TX and OK Panhandles
   into southwest KS.  An increase in ascent from west-to-east during
   the afternoon and daytime heating/mixing in cloud breaks will weaken
   the cap such that storm initiation is likely by mid afternoon along
   and east of the dryline.  The initial convection will remain
   semi-discrete for a few hours into this evening, in an environment
   increasingly favorable for right-moving supercells capable of
   producing very large hail as deep-layer vertical shear increases. 
   An increase in low-level shear is also expected later this
   afternoon/evening in the warm sector, with effective SRH likely in
   excess of 200 m2/s2.  The semi-discrete storm mode with increasing
   low-level shear in a sufficiently moist environment will support
   tornadic supercells, with the potential for a couple of strong
   tornadoes.

   Upscale growth into clusters and eventually a more extensive QLCS is
   expected by late evening into the overnight hours from northwest TX
   into western/central OK and southern KS.  Damaging winds will become
   a more substantial threat will embedded supercells/bowing segments
   tonight, though large hail will remain possible.  A couple of
   tornadoes and/or severe gusts may also occur with circulations
   embedded within the QLCS.

   ..Thompson/Smith.. 05/07/2019