Sunday, May 19, 2019

TROPICAL UPDATE INVEST 91L AND TROPICAL WAVE OUTLOOK MAY 19, 2019 1009 PM EDT

The Atlantic still remains tropical wave free, however, off the southwest coast of Africa along the ITCZ (Inter-tropical convergence zone) there is a strong disturbance that has emerged off the coast between 20°-10° West.  This could be our first strong wave even though its to early for the Cavo Verde season begin.

I will watch it as I am still monitoring the East Pacific and the Southern Caribbean.  GFS continues to insist on development and could be a problem for either the Yucatan or Southern Mexico.

As for the models suggesting development from the African disturbance or area of showers and storms there are no indications of development from this system at this time.

NHC has up the chance for development for invest 90L east of the Bahamas.  Models are still suggesting a short lived storm at this time as it merges with other weather systems in the coming week.
RTW



National Hurricane Center 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 192328
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
southwest of Bermuda by Monday. This system could develop into a
short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone late tomorrow or
Tuesday while moving northward or northeastward. By Wednesday,
however, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further
development, and the system should become rapidly absorbed by a
cold front.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance Monday afternoon, if
necessary. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this
system. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by
Monday 2 AM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


DISTURBANCE EAST IF THE BAHAMAS IS NOW INVEST 90L

NHC is now calling the disturbance east of the Eastern Bahamas Storm investigation 90L.  This disturbance is not a threat for the U.S.
Most of the models suggest a short lived storm system.
RTW

National Hurricane Center
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form by Monday several
hundred miles southwest of Bermuda. This system could develop into a
short-lived tropical or subtropical cyclone late Monday or Tuesday
while moving northward or northeastward. Environmental conditions
are expected to become unfavorable for further development by
Wednesday.  The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued
by 2 PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Blake
















TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 19, 2019 0311 AM EDT

The Atlantic remains tropical wave free at this time.  NHC is still monitoring between 70°-65° West for low pressure development by the middle of next week.  If it does develop the track should be north and northeastward.

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW



National Hurricane Center 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 190502
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to form within a region of
disturbed weather located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda
during the next couple of days. This system could gradually develop
into a tropical or subtropical cyclone while it moves northward or
northeastward through Tuesday. Environmental conditions are forecast
to become unfavorable for further development by the middle of the
week. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by
2 PM EDT Sunday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky