HIGH TORNADO RISK FOR TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

HERE IS THE STORM PREDICTIONS OUTLOOK.  IT IS RARE TO SEE THIS EXTREMELY HIGH LEVEL 5 RISK, IN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS IN MAY.  SCHOOLS AND BUSINESS ARE CLOSED DUE TO THIS HIGH LEVEL 5 RISK. 

TROPICAL UPDATE MAY 20, 2019 0404 PM EDT

Tropical Update:
1. First wave of the Atlantic I spoke of last night is now on the surface map. The wave is located between 16°W and 17°W   There are no signs of organization at this time.

2. Invest 90L continues to show some signs of organization but is still has not acquired a closed low level circulation and is looking more like a hybrid system or as they call it a Sub-Tropical system.  NHC has now raised the chances of development to HIGH 70% within 48 hours or 70% within 5-days.

Bermuda should monitor the system even though it will be a short lived storm as it merges with a frontal boundary in the coming days.

3. I continue to monitor the East Pacific and the Southern Caribbean as GFS continues to flip flop between developing a low in the East Pacific then tracking it into the Caribbean. Still highly questionable.

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

Courtesy of National Hurricane Center

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201730
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda are
showing signs of organization.  Although recent satellite wind data
suggest that the system currently lacks a well-defined center of
circulation, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for the formation of a short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone
later today or tonight.  Conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for further development by late Tuesday, and the
disturbance is expected to merge with a cold front on Wednesday.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route
to investigate the disturbance.  Interests in Bermuda should
monitor the progress of this system.  The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Courtesy of Tropical Tibits.com