..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 18, 2024..

 

1. An upper-level trough of low pressure east of the Bahamas has more thunderstorm activity associated with this weather system. 

This low is presently in a favorable to neutral upper-level environment; in other words, it is in a marginally favorable area for gradual development as it tracks west-to-northwest during the next few days. However, north of the Bahamas, it remains unfavorable at this time. 

Also, ahead of this low water vapor, the satellite shows dry air ahead of this low, which could hinder development as well.

NHC is giving this low a 10/20% chance for formation during the next 48 hours to 7 days. I will keep you posted.

RTW

Potential Tropical Cyclone One

2. As for PTC One, it is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday, according to the NHC. This system is forecast to bring excessive rains to northern Mexico and Texas by Thursday and Friday and produce flash floods in Texas and mudslides in mountainous areas of Mexico.

Gale winds will also be on the increase across the Gulf waters, with a 40–50 mph gust, according to the Windy Euro model along the Texas coast and the Northern Mexican coast.

RTW

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT31 KNHC 181757
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012024
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...DISTURBANCE REMAINS LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED OVER THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF 
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 92.6W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.0 North, longitude 92.6 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A turn toward the northwest 
and west with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and 
on Wednesday, and the system is forecast to reach the Gulf coast of
Mexico by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is likely during the next 36 hours,
and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. 

The disturbance is quite large, and satellite-derived wind data 
indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 
miles (665 km) north of the center.

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde 
data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South
Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher
terrain across northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by tonight or Wednesday.

TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes may occur across parts of Deep
South Texas on Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance will affect the coast of
Texas and northeastern Mexico through Wednesday night.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg