..TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 10, 2024..

 

Still seeing a heavy rain and flooding potential for this week with a shift into the Gulf of Mexico into early next week.  The only problem with this are the model inconsistencies when forecasting this rainfall event.  There has been to much flip flopping from the western Gulf to the eastern Gulf and over Florida.  

So far indications at this time are that Florida will see deep tropical moisture streaming northward from the Caribbean which will interact with a stationary front to the north. This will enhance the rain and storms that will be slow moving cells with heavy downpours and gusty winds. These slow moving thunderstorms will produce periodic heavy rainfall that can produce localized flooding in flood prone areas.

The Weather Prediction Center shows a (Slight) risk for excessive rainfall over a portion of Florida during the next 4 days.  See below maps!

Day 1-5 rainfall probabilities

7 day accumulated rainfall. 

That is impressive rainfall in the yellows 10-15 inches along the gulf coast.

EURO Total Precipitable Water.

The Dark shades of blue is the heaviest of the rains.

GFS TPW model

National Forecast Maps

As for the Storm Prediction Center they only show (General) Thunderstorms for the state of Florida but you can't rule out strong to maybe severe storms with gusty winds.  See maps below!

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101712
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

-----------------------------------------------------------------

718 
ACCA62 KNHC 101713
TWOSAT

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
200 PM EDT lunes 10 de junio de 2024

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar del Caribe y el Golfo de México:

No se espera la formación de ciclones tropicales durante los
próximos 7 días.

$$
Pronosticador Cangialosi

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 101643
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jun 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1632 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and SE Gulf of Mexico: 
Abundant tropical moisture surging northward combined with mid 
to upper level diffluent flow continue to generate showers and 
thunderstorms across parts of the NW Caribbean, and portions of 
the SW Caribbean. Dangerous lightning, strong gusty winds, rough 
seas and low visibility are likely ongoing within this 
convective activity over these areas, including the offshore 
waters of E Honduras and Nicaragua. This convection will amplify 
while it shifts towards the SE Gulf of Mexico and the Florida 
Straits through at least Thu. Mariners should exercise caution. 
Please refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather 
forecast offices for detailed information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic has been relocated and 
is extending from 01N to 17N with axis near 20W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 05N to 07N between 17.5W and 22W. 

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic has been relocate and is 
extending S of 11N to inland Suriname with axis near 56.5W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 11N 
between 53W and 59W. 

A tropical wave is in the south-central Caribbean Sea S of 12N to
inland W Venezuela with axis near 71W, moving westward at 10-15 
kt. No deep convection is evident in the Caribbean waters in 
association with this wave.

A tropical wave in the SW Caribbean Sea has been relocated with 
axis extending S of 15N across Panama and into E Pac waters near 
81W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 10N to 20N 
between 75.5W and 83.5W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues 
southwestward to 07N19W. The ITCZ extends from 07N22W to 04N41W 
and to 08N55W. Aside from the convection associated with the 
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 02.5N to 
09N between 24W and 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient persists across the Gulf of Mexico,
resulting in primarily moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. 
A dry airmass continues to suppress the development of showers 
and thunderstorms. Light concentration of smoke continue over 
the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche, due to ongoing 
agricultural fires, creating hazy conditions.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly 
gentle to moderate winds most of the forecast period. Moderate 
to fresh S to SE winds will develop over the E half of the basin 
toward the end of the week. Otherwise, hazy conditions due to 
agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue 
for at least the next couple of days, reducing visibility to 
around 3 nm at times, mainly over the SW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about 
heavy rainfall in the NW Caribbean. 

Broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic 
extends into the E Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly tranquil 
weather conditions outside of the NW and SW Caribbean. The 
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in 
northern South America results in fresh to strong easterly trade 
winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-
7 ft. Moderate to fresh E to SE breezes and moderate seas are 
occurring in the north-central, eastern and NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
expected across the NW Caribbean through Tue. Moderate to fresh 
trades will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean 
through the forecast period, pulsing to locally strong winds at 
night. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds are forecast for 
the NW Caribbean most of the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters our area near 31N26W then continues 
southwestward to 24N47W where it begins to dissipate to 21N56W. 
Isolated light showers are found along this front. Broad ridging 
continues to dominate much of the subtropical Atlantic, 
sustaining moderate to locally fresh SW winds and seas of 3-5 ft 
north of 27N and west of 65W, with the highest winds and seas 
occurring off NE Florida. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are 
also noted across the offshore waters of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola 
and southern Bahamas along with moderate seas to 5 ft. Farther 
east, moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft are 
noted N of 15N off the coast of W Africa to 27W. Over the 
tropical Atlantic, trades are moderate to fresh between 27W and 
the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface high pressure and associated 
ridging will prevail across the region through Thu, then 
gradually shift northward through the end of the week. Moderate 
to fresh S to SW winds over the NE Florida offshore waters will 
continue through Tue night, briefly reaching strong speeds N of 
29N between 74W and 80W tonight and Tue evening. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate winds are expected on either side of the 
ridge, with light to gentle winds along the ridge axis.

$$
KRV

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-110900-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.A.0002.240611T0400Z-240613T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Glades-Hendry-Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward
County-Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-Metropolitan
Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-Coastal
Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-Dade
County-
Including the cities of East Naples, Davie, Lion Country Safari
Park, Muse, Miramar, Royal Palm Beach, Boca Raton, Clewiston,
Hialeah, Miami, Sunniland, Greenacres City, Pembroke Pines, Lake
Worth, Pompano Beach, Golden Gate, Fortymile Bend, Felda, Royal
Palm Hammock, Miles City, Pa-Hay Okee Overlook, Ortona, Coral
Springs, Redland, Palm Beach Gardens, Kendall, Riviera Beach,
Marco Island Airport, The Acreage, Buckhead Ridge, Hendry
Correctional, Palmdale, Sawgrass Mills Mal, Shark Valley Obs
Tower, Royal Palm Ranger, Mahogany Hammock, Sandalfoot Cove,
Orange Tree, Jupiter, Caloosa, Lakeport, Florida City, Brighton
Seminole, Bonita Shores, Florida Gardens, North Blocks Golde,
Hollywood, Sunrise, Delray Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Boynton Beach,
Carol City, Naples, Moore Haven, North Naples, Belle Glade,
Kendale Lakes, Immokalee, Northwest Cape Sable, Wellington,
Miccosukee Indian Reservation, West Palm Beach, Deerfield Beach,
Bunker Hill, and Marco Island
209 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast, southern, and southwest Florida,
including the following areas, in southeast Florida, Coastal
Broward County, Coastal Miami Dade County, Coastal Palm Beach
County, Far South Miami-Dade County, Inland Broward County, Inland
Miami-Dade County, Inland Palm Beach County, Metro Broward County,
Metro Palm Beach County and Metropolitan Miami Dade. In southern
Florida, Glades and Hendry. In southwest Florida, Coastal Collier
County, Inland Collier County and Mainland Monroe.

* WHEN...From midnight EDT tonight through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Enhanced tropical moisture is expected to pool across South
Florida beginning on Tuesday. This will result in periods of
heavy rain. High rainfall rates and slow moving storms will
result in flooding concerns, especially in urban and poor
drainage locations. Rainfall totals from Tuesday morning
through Wednesday evening are forecast to be 5-8 inches
across Southwest Florida and the Lake Okeechobee region, and
2-5 inches over the east coast metro, with locally higher
amounts possible. Additional heavy rain is possible later in
the week.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.