Friday, May 17, 2019

TODAYS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAY 17, 2019


Today's Updated Thunderstorm Outlook.



EAST PACIFIC STORM INVESTIGATION 91E

Its odd to see disturbances tracking east in the east Pacific instead of west.  Invest 91E is doing just that.  See below NHC post.
RTW

National Hurricane Center 
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri May 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico are associated with a weak and
elongated area of low pressure.  Gradual development of this system
is possible during the early and middle part of next week while the
disturbance moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 

NEW 5-DAY LOW PROBABILITY OF SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT

NHC is monitoring an area south-southwest of Bermuda for sub-tropical or tropical cyclone formation.  (NOT A THREAT FOR THE U.S.)  See below post by NHC.

National Hurricane Center
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south or southwest of Bermuda late this weekend or early next week.
Gradual development of this system into a tropical or subtropical
cyclone is possible during the early and middle part of next week
while it moves northward or northeastward. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 AM EDT Saturday, or sooner if
conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
 

TROPICAL OUTLOOK FOR MAY 17, 2019 1121 AM EDT

Tropical Atlantic remains wave free.

I am still monitoring the East Pacific and Caribbean for tropical cyclone formation by next week.

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW 


 

Thursday, May 16, 2019

TROPICAL UPDATE MAY 16, 2018 1236 PM EDT

Tropical Waves:
At this time there are no tropical waves in the Atlantic.


East Pacific and Northwest Caribbean:
I am still monitoring the East Pacific and Northwest Caribbean for low pressure development into next.  GFS model continues to insist that low pressure or a tropical system will develop in the East Pacific and traverse over Central American into the Caribbean.   

East Caribbean:
GFS is now suggesting low pressure development south of Puerto Rico next week as well.  I find this to be highly uncertain at this time. 
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW






Wednesday, May 15, 2019

AFTERNOON TROPICAL UPDATE BY RTW

Still no signs of tropical waves at this time in the Atlantic.  However, I am still monitoring the South and Northwest Caribbean for tropical cyclone formation for by the end of next coming week.  At this time there is nothing showing, but GFS continues to insist on low pressure developing or traversing over from the East Pacific into the Caribbean.  It could be nothing at all, but I will keep you posted.
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW


TROPICAL OUTLOOK STARTS TODAY HERE AT RTW BLOG

Today is the beginning of the East Pacific Hurricane Season and I begin tracking waves across the Atlantic that could develop in the Caribbean before the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season June 1st, 2019. 

At this time the tropical Atlantic remains quiet with no tropical waves at this time.  There is an area of the Southern Caribbean which is not showing anything at this time, but the GFS model has been hinting on development in this area for the past week.  Although nothing may occur in this area because long range forecast are not very accurate, I will watch the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the Bahamas for any signs of early development.

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW
 Courtesy of Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW


Tuesday, May 7, 2019

FLOOD ADVISORY LOWER KEYS

FLC087-071830-
/O.NEW.KKEY.FA.Y.0004.190507T1730Z-190507T1830Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lower Keys in Monroe FL-
130 PM EDT Tue May 7 2019

The National Weather Service in Key West has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Lower Keys in Monroe County in Florida...

* Until 230 PM EDT..

* At 126 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in
the advisory area. Up to one and a half inches of rain has already
fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Key West, Boca Chica Channel Bridge, Boca Chica, Fleming Key, Key
Haven and Sunset Key.

This includes US 1 between mile markers 0 and 7.

Additional rainfall amounts of one inch are possible in the advisory
area.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause significant ponding
of water in urban areas, highways, and streets as well as other poor
drainage areas and low lying spots.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely.

LAT...LON 2454 8184 2459 8184 2462 8182 2464 8169
2453 8170 2453 8171 2452 8182

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY

FLZ073-074-173-071745-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
115 PM EDT Tue May 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM EDT...

* At 115 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking a strong thunderstorm over Miami International Airport, or
near South Miami. This storm was nearly stationary.

* Small hail and winds in excess of 45 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
Miami, Hialeah, Coral Gables, South Miami, Kendall, Doral, Hialeah
Gardens, Miami Springs, Sweetwater, West Miami, Medley,
Westchester, Gladeview, Glenvar Heights, Fountainbleau, University
Of Miami, Coconut Grove, Coral Terrace, West Little River and
Olympia Heights.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON

FLZ073-173-174-071800-
Far South Miami-Dade County FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
111 PM EDT Tue May 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

* At 111 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Princeton
to 9 miles south of Florida City. Movement was south at 10 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with these
storms.

* Locations impacted include...
Homestead, Homestead Miami Speedway, The Redland, Florida City,
Homestead Base, Naranja, Princeton, Leisure City and Homestead
Bayfront Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. If
you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck! Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY-1

SPC AC 071218

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0718 AM CDT Tue May 07 2019

   Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE
   CENTRAL/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND EXTREME WESTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO EARLY TONIGHT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Numerous severe storms are expected this afternoon into early
   tonight across the Texas Panhandle into extreme western Oklahoma.  A
   couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds will
   all be possible.

   ...Southern High Plains and vicinity through tonight...
   The synoptic front extends from northern MO to the northern TX
   Panhandle, though the effective front is located farther south into
   northern OK, as a result of outflow from overnight convection that
   has mostly weakened.  Cyclogenesis is expected today along the
   boundary into northeast NM in advance of a midlevel trough crossing
   AZ/NM, with a sharpening dryline to the south near the TX/NM border.
   Mass response to the cyclogenesis will draw boundary-layer dewpoints
   in the 60s northwestward into west TX and the TX Panhandle, beneath
   a plume of steep (8-9 C/km) midlevel lapse rates.  This will drive
   moderate-strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg) in the warm
   sector east of the dryline, with weakening convective inhibition by
   early-mid afternoon.

   Some consolidation of the residual outflows and the synoptic front
   is expected today into KS.  This front and the dryline will focus
   severe storm development today, with the earlier development
   expected near the front across the northern TX and OK Panhandles
   into southwest KS.  An increase in ascent from west-to-east during
   the afternoon and daytime heating/mixing in cloud breaks will weaken
   the cap such that storm initiation is likely by mid afternoon along
   and east of the dryline.  The initial convection will remain
   semi-discrete for a few hours into this evening, in an environment
   increasingly favorable for right-moving supercells capable of
   producing very large hail as deep-layer vertical shear increases. 
   An increase in low-level shear is also expected later this
   afternoon/evening in the warm sector, with effective SRH likely in
   excess of 200 m2/s2.  The semi-discrete storm mode with increasing
   low-level shear in a sufficiently moist environment will support
   tornadic supercells, with the potential for a couple of strong
   tornadoes.

   Upscale growth into clusters and eventually a more extensive QLCS is
   expected by late evening into the overnight hours from northwest TX
   into western/central OK and southern KS.  Damaging winds will become
   a more substantial threat will embedded supercells/bowing segments
   tonight, though large hail will remain possible.  A couple of
   tornadoes and/or severe gusts may also occur with circulations
   embedded within the QLCS.

   ..Thompson/Smith.. 05/07/2019





Monday, May 6, 2019

FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUED BY NWS MIAMI

FLC086-062245-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0011.190506T1941Z-190506T2245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Miami-Dade FL-
341 PM EDT Mon May 6 2019

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Central Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 645 PM EDT.

* At 340 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the advisory area.
Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Coral Gables, Key Biscayne, South Miami, Black Point and Kendall.

Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected over the area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY NWS MIAMI

FLZ067-071-061815-
Inland Broward County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
142 PM EDT Mon May 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BROWARD AND SOUTHWESTERN
PALM BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

* At 141 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
Rotenberger Wildlife Refuge to Miccosukee Service Plaza. Movement
was east at 25 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
West Broward Rec. Area On Alligator Alley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED BY NWS MIAMI

FLZ066-067-070-071-061800-
Inland Broward County FL-Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-
134 PM EDT Mon May 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL COLLIER...
SOUTHEASTERN HENDRY...NORTHERN BROWARD AND SOUTHWESTERN PALM BEACH
COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

* At 134 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
Rotenberger Wildlife Refuge to near Miccosukee Indian Reservation.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

* Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and funnel clouds possible with these
storms.

* Locations impacted include...
Miccosukee Indian Reservation and Miccosukee Service Plaza.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. If
you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck! Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

MONDAY SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

There is a marginal chance for strong to severe storms for a portion of the east coast of Florida.

You can expect heavy downpours with localized flooding in those areas prone to street flooding.

There is chance for strong  damaging Gusty winds up 60 mph, hail and frequent lightning strikes this afternoon.

Slower moving cells could produce urban street flooding in those areas already saturated by last night's heavy downpours.

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and local media for updates this afternoon and early evening.
RTW
Maps courtesy of Storm Prediction Center






Radar courtesy of  
WDT Radar Scope

Sunday, May 5, 2019

FLOOD ADVISORY EXTENDED

FLC086-060230-
/O.EXT.KMFL.FA.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-190506T0230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Miami-Dade FL-
820 PM EDT Sun May 5 2019

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Northern Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 1030 PM EDT.

* At 818 PM EDT, the public reported heavy rain causing urban and
small stream flooding in portions of Miami including Little
Havana, Allapattah, Little Haiti, Edgewater, and Wynwood. Over
three to five inches of rain have already fallen in most of these
areas.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Miami, Hialeah, Miami Beach, Surfside and North Miami.

Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is possible over the area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of canals
and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well
as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

NEW FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUED BY NWS MIAMI

FLC086-060200-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0009.190506T0000Z-190506T0200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Miami-Dade FL-
800 PM EDT Sun May 5 2019

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Central Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 1000 PM EDT.

* At 759 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in
the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Coral Gables, South Miami, Black Point, Kendall and The Redland.

Additional rainfall is expected over the area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of canals
and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well
as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED BY NWS MIAMI

FLZ073-074-173-060045-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
739 PM EDT Sun May 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL
845 PM EDT...

* At 739 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking a strong thunderstorm over Pinecrest, or over South Miami,
moving east at 5 mph.

* Small hail, excessive cloud-to-ground lightning, and winds in
excess of 45 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
Miami, Hialeah, Miami Beach, Coral Gables, Key Biscayne, South
Miami, Black Point, Virginia Key, Kendall, The Redland, Doral,
Pinecrest, Miami Springs, Sweetwater, North Bay Village, West
Miami, Westchester, Glenvar Heights, Palmetto Bay and University Of
Miami.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

NEW FLOOD ADVISORY BY NWS MIAMI

FLC086-060100-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0008.190505T2258Z-190506T0100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Miami-Dade FL-
658 PM EDT Sun May 5 2019

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Central Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 900 PM EDT.

* At 658 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Miami, Coral Gables, South Miami, Kendall and Pinecrest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.