Wednesday, July 5, 2017



The center of circulation of 94L is remains exposed to the right of the convection (thunderstorms) ahead of the low level circulation.  Most of the models keep this system weak and some even show it diminishing as it nears the Eastern Bahamas.  This system has its own moisture surrounding the low but there is a wide area of dry air that this system has to track through and moderate easterly shear is also affecting the low/wave.  It still has a chance for development before it runs into a more unfavorable environment.  As for the track a weak system will tend to track west-to a west-northwest.  However, this system has been generally tracking toward the northwest per model and past position/track issued for this invest during each model run.  Some models still have that left bias and once again this could be that the Atlantic high will build westward in time or we will be dealing with a weak disorganized system that will not be influenced by any troughs moving off the east coast... Stay tuned here daily for the latest update on 94L.

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

No comments:

Post a Comment