Tuesday, May 21, 2019

TOMORROWS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

14 minutes ago
Tomorrow's Severe Thunderstorm Outlook.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 21, 2019 0134 PM EDT

 CORRECTION MADE TO SURFACE MAP BELOW. I ADDED ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES

Atlantic Tropical Waves:

1. A westward moving tropical wave near 21°West and 22° West is not showing signs of organization.  However, there is plenty of thunderstorm activity present south of 10° North from 53° West to 10° West.  These storms are not associated with the wave.

2.  I am still monitoring the East Pacific and the Southern Caribbean for development as the GFS model continues to insist that low pressure will for somewhere in the circled area and could develop either Sub-tropical or tropical.  I will keep you posted.

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW


Courtesy of tropical Tidbits.com



ANDREA DOWNGRADED TO A SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO DISSPATE TODAY

ANDREA WEAKER AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AS IT TRACKS NORTH AND NORTHEAST. 
RTW




National Hurricane Center 
704 
WTNT31 KNHC 211434
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Depression Andrea Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012019
1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019

...ANDREA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 69.2W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.  Interests in
Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression
Andrea was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 69.2 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
a turn toward the northeast and east is expected tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Continued weakening is forecast, and Andrea is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low by this evening.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
Courtesy of Tropical Tibits.com

 

Monday, May 20, 2019

HIGH TORNADO RISK FOR TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

HERE IS THE STORM PREDICTIONS OUTLOOK.  IT IS RARE TO SEE THIS EXTREMELY HIGH LEVEL 5 RISK, IN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS IN MAY.  SCHOOLS AND BUSINESS ARE CLOSED DUE TO THIS HIGH LEVEL 5 RISK. 


TROPICAL UPDATE MAY 20, 2019 0404 PM EDT

Tropical Update:
1. First wave of the Atlantic I spoke of last night is now on the surface map. The wave is located between 16°W and 17°W   There are no signs of organization at this time.

2. Invest 90L continues to show some signs of organization but is still has not acquired a closed low level circulation and is looking more like a hybrid system or as they call it a Sub-Tropical system.  NHC has now raised the chances of development to HIGH 70% within 48 hours or 70% within 5-days.

Bermuda should monitor the system even though it will be a short lived storm as it merges with a frontal boundary in the coming days.

3. I continue to monitor the East Pacific and the Southern Caribbean as GFS continues to flip flop between developing a low in the East Pacific then tracking it into the Caribbean. Still highly questionable.

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW





Courtesy of National Hurricane Center

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201730
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda are
showing signs of organization.  Although recent satellite wind data
suggest that the system currently lacks a well-defined center of
circulation, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for the formation of a short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone
later today or tonight.  Conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for further development by late Tuesday, and the
disturbance is expected to merge with a cold front on Wednesday.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route
to investigate the disturbance.  Interests in Bermuda should
monitor the progress of this system.  The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Courtesy of Tropical Tibits.com 



 

Sunday, May 19, 2019

TROPICAL UPDATE INVEST 91L AND TROPICAL WAVE OUTLOOK MAY 19, 2019 1009 PM EDT

The Atlantic still remains tropical wave free, however, off the southwest coast of Africa along the ITCZ (Inter-tropical convergence zone) there is a strong disturbance that has emerged off the coast between 20°-10° West.  This could be our first strong wave even though its to early for the Cavo Verde season begin.

I will watch it as I am still monitoring the East Pacific and the Southern Caribbean.  GFS continues to insist on development and could be a problem for either the Yucatan or Southern Mexico.

As for the models suggesting development from the African disturbance or area of showers and storms there are no indications of development from this system at this time.

NHC has up the chance for development for invest 90L east of the Bahamas.  Models are still suggesting a short lived storm at this time as it merges with other weather systems in the coming week.
RTW



National Hurricane Center 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 192328
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
southwest of Bermuda by Monday. This system could develop into a
short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone late tomorrow or
Tuesday while moving northward or northeastward. By Wednesday,
however, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further
development, and the system should become rapidly absorbed by a
cold front.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance Monday afternoon, if
necessary. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this
system. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by
Monday 2 AM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


DISTURBANCE EAST IF THE BAHAMAS IS NOW INVEST 90L

NHC is now calling the disturbance east of the Eastern Bahamas Storm investigation 90L.  This disturbance is not a threat for the U.S.
Most of the models suggest a short lived storm system.
RTW

National Hurricane Center
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form by Monday several
hundred miles southwest of Bermuda. This system could develop into a
short-lived tropical or subtropical cyclone late Monday or Tuesday
while moving northward or northeastward. Environmental conditions
are expected to become unfavorable for further development by
Wednesday.  The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued
by 2 PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Blake
















TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 19, 2019 0311 AM EDT

The Atlantic remains tropical wave free at this time.  NHC is still monitoring between 70°-65° West for low pressure development by the middle of next week.  If it does develop the track should be north and northeastward.

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW



National Hurricane Center 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 190502
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to form within a region of
disturbed weather located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda
during the next couple of days. This system could gradually develop
into a tropical or subtropical cyclone while it moves northward or
northeastward through Tuesday. Environmental conditions are forecast
to become unfavorable for further development by the middle of the
week. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by
2 PM EDT Sunday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 

 

Saturday, May 18, 2019

TROPICAL OUTLOOK MAY 18, 2018 0854 PM EDT

There are no tropical waves in the Atlantic at this time.  NHC is still monitoring an elongated areas of showers and storms, where low pressure could develop by mid next week.  This system if it does develop should not be a threat to the U.S.

I am still watching the East Pacific and Caribbean into next week as well since GFS still insist on development.

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW


 
National Hurricane Center 
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
125 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large and elongated area of cloudiness and disorganized
thunderstorms has developed well to the east of the Bahamas.
An area of low pressure is expected to form within this area of
disturbed weather several hundred miles south or southwest of
Bermuda by early next week. Gradual development of this system
into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is possible during the
early and middle part of next week while it moves northward or
northeastward. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 2 AM EDT Sunday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart