..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 21, 2026..

 

The tropics remain quiet for now. There are currently two tropical waves in the Atlantic. One tropical wave is located over the Atlantic Ocean, while the other wave axis extends partially over South America, with its northern portion stretching into the central Caribbean. Neither of these waves is showing signs of organization at this time.

I am still monitoring a persistent upper-level trough near the Bahamas that continues to produce an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. At this time, forecast models are not indicating any development in this area, but I will continue to watch it closely.

For the latest updates on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center website.

RTW

Spanish version:

Los trópicos permanecen tranquilos por ahora. Actualmente hay dos ondas tropicales en el Atlántico. Una onda tropical se encuentra sobre el océano Atlántico, mientras que el eje de la otra onda tropical se extiende parcialmente sobre Sudamérica, con su porción norte alcanzando el Caribe central. Ninguna de estas ondas muestra señales de organización en este momento.

También continúo monitoreando una persistente vaguada en niveles altos cerca de las Bahamas, la cual sigue produciendo un área de lluvias y tormentas desorganizadas. Por el momento, los modelos meteorológicos no indican desarrollo en esta zona, pero continuaré observándola de cerca.

Para las últimas actualizaciones sobre el trópico, visite el sitio web del Centro Nacional de Huracanes.

RTW

..TROPICAL OUTLOOK MAY 20, 2026..

 

The tropics remain quiet for now, but forecast models suggest conditions could become more favorable for tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean during the last week of May and into the first week of June. I will continue monitoring the situation as we approach the start of hurricane season.

At this time, there is only one tropical wave moving through the eastern Caribbean. Continue to monitor for the latest tropical weather updates from the National Hurricane Center.

RTW

Spanish version:

Los trópicos permanecen tranquilos por ahora, pero los modelos de pronóstico sugieren que las condiciones podrían volverse más favorables para el desarrollo tropical en el noroeste del Caribe durante la última semana de mayo y la primera semana de junio. Continuaré monitoreando la situación a medida que nos acercamos al inicio de la temporada de huracanes.

En este momento, solo hay una onda tropical moviéndose a través del Caribe oriental. Continúe atento a las últimas actualizaciones sobre el clima tropical del National Hurricane Center.

RTW

..TROPICAL OUTLOOK MAY 19, 2026..

 

The tropics remain quiet at this time, with no signs of tropical organization or development. Currently, there are three tropical waves being monitored: one over the Caribbean near the eastern coast of Nicaragua, another approaching the eastern coast of South America, and a third over the eastern Atlantic. None of these systems are showing indications of development at this time.

A swirl of unsettled weather near the Bahamas is primarily associated with a trough of low pressure located in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. This feature is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms, with some of the stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds. However, current forecast models are not indicating any tropical development associated with this system.

We will continue to monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center.

RTW

Spanish version:

Los trópicos permanecen tranquilos en este momento, sin señales de organización o desarrollo tropical. Actualmente, se monitorean tres ondas tropicales: una sobre el Caribe cerca de la costa oriental de Nicaragua, otra acercándose a la costa oriental de Sudamérica y una tercera sobre el Atlántico oriental. Ninguno de estos sistemas muestra indicios de desarrollo por ahora.

Un área de inestabilidad cerca de las Bahamas está asociada principalmente con una vaguada de baja presión ubicada en los niveles medios y altos de la atmósfera. Este sistema está generando aguaceros y tormentas eléctricas dispersas, algunas de las cuales podrían producir ráfagas de viento fuertes. Sin embargo, los modelos de pronóstico actuales no indican desarrollo tropical asociado con este sistema.

Continuaremos monitoreando las actualizaciones del National Hurricane Center.

RTW

..TROPICAL OUTLOOK MAY 16, 2026..

The tropics remain quiet, and the majority of ensemble guidance is in agreement with this outlook. I will continue monitoring conditions closely and will provide updates if any development becomes possible.

At this time, the only notable features are two tropical waves, neither of which is currently showing signs of organization or development.

Spanish translation:

Los trópicos permanecen tranquilos, y la mayoría de los modelos de conjunto coinciden con esta perspectiva. Continuaré monitoreando las condiciones de cerca y proporcionaré actualizaciones si surge alguna posibilidad de desarrollo.

En este momento, las únicas características destacables son dos ondas tropicales, ninguna de las cuales muestra actualmente señales de organización o desarrollo.

RTW

..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BEGINS TODAY.. ..CHECK BACK DAILY FOR UPDATES..

Well, here we go again — tracking tropical waves across the Atlantic as the Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially begins today. The Atlantic hurricane season is also just around the corner, and as the National Hurricane Center begins monitoring tropical waves and disturbances, so will I.

I will do my best to provide daily updates here on the blog and on Facebook at “Ralph’s Tropical Weather (RTW).” Weekends can be busy for me with family activities and church on Sundays, but I plan to post regular updates throughout the week.

The National Hurricane Center issues Tropical Weather Outlooks three times daily — morning, afternoon, and evening — and I will continue sharing updates and analysis as conditions warrant.

As for today’s tropical outlook, aside from monsoonal rains and thunderstorms off the southwest coast of Africa, there are currently two tropical waves in the Atlantic. At this time, neither wave is showing signs of organization, and tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next seven days.

RTW

ENSEMBLE MODELS

2026 Forecasted Numbers

• Named Storms: 11–16

• Hurricanes: 4–7

• Major Hurricanes (Cat 3+): 2–4

• Context: While overall activity may be lower, forecasters warn that quiet seasons can still produce significant, dangerous, or record-setting storms. 

2026 Atlantic Storm Names 

The World Meteorological Organization has released the 2026 Atlantic list, which is a reuse of the 2020 list (minus the name Laura, which was replaced by Leah). 

• Arthur

• Bertha

• Cristobal

• Dolly

• Edouard

• Fay

• Gonzalo

• Hanna

• Isaias

• Josephine

• Kyle

• Leah (replacing retired 2020 name Laura)

• Marco

• Nana

• Omar

• Paulette

• Rene

• Sally

• Teddy

• Vicky

• Wilfred