190 AXNT20 KNHC 131753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 153 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 20N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the monsoon trough area, from 07N to 10N between 26W and 34W. It is possible that any precipitation may be more related to the monsoon trough than to just the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W from 21N southward, moving west 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 10N to 13N between 40W and 44W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 21N southward. It is possible that any precipitation may be more related to the ITCZ than to just the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from 22N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are between Jamaica and SE Cuba. It is possible that this precipitation may be more related to the current upper level cyclonic wind flow than to just the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 15N17W, to 10N24W 09N29W and 10N41W. The ITCZ is along 08N46W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 09N to 11N between 60W and 62W, near Venezuela and Trinidad. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 08N to 12N between 58W and 64W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 07N to 11N between 46W and 56W. Other isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 44W eastward. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, for Trinidad, that is listed for the period that ended at 13/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.81. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 24N southward from 90W westward. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the area. A surface trough extends from the Florida Big Bend to 25N85W in the SE part of the Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 26N to 29N between Florida and 91W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N northward from 92W eastward. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 27N89W. A nocturnal trough will develop during the evening hours in the Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will accompany this trough. The trough will become weaker by the middle of the week, and it will allow the wind speeds to subside. A surface ridge generally will support light to moderate E to SE winds in the remainder of the basin through Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow across the Caribbean Sea from 14N northward from the Windward Passage westward, including to 90W in the Yucatan Peninsula and in Central America. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 15N northward between 75W and 90W. The areas of the comparatively greatest concentration of precipitation are: from the coast of Honduras to 20N in the Yucatan Peninsula between 84W and 90W, and between Jamaica and SE Cuba. Broken low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the areas that are from 17N to 21N between 58W and the Windward Passage, and from 12N to 18N between 65W and 74W. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N between 73W in Colombia and 85W in Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 45 nm on either side of the line that runs from 09N80W at the coast of Panama, to 12N85W in south central Nicaragua. Surface high pressure, that is to the north of the area, will maintain fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday. Earlier strong to minimal gale force winds, that were being experienced along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, have begun to subside. The wind speeds and the sea heights in the Caribbean Sea will subside during the middle of the week, as the western Atlantic Ocean high pressure center gradually weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, from an upper level trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba and Hispaniola northward from 70W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 22N northward between 35W and 60W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 28N northward between 45W and 56W. A low pressure center and a surface trough are to the north of the area, along 50W. A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center that is near 33N34W, to 28N50W, to a second 1024 mb high pressure center that is near 30N63W, to the NW Bahamas. The surface ridge will remain in place during the next several days. This ridge will help to maintain fresh to locally strong winds along the northern coast of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage, during the evening and nighttime hours. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow will continue N of 23N, while mainly moderate easterly wind flow will prevail S of 23N. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT
049 ABNT20 KNHC 131713 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad non-tropical area of low pressure located a little more than 600 miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Some development could occur within this complex low pressure area while it moves toward the northeast during the next 2 to 3 days before it reaches the colder waters of the North Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila