Friday, December 14, 2018
Pre-front trough moving in over Florida today could produce strong to maybe severe thunderstorms. So far I don't see any signs of water spouts off shore that could turn into a tornado on shore. RTW
Thursday, December 13, 2018
Another storm system will drag a cold front across the southeast enhancing a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms across a portion of northern and Central Florida on Friday and a possibly on Saturday. RTW
Sunday, December 9, 2018
Saturday, December 8, 2018
Monday, December 3, 2018
Friday, November 30, 2018
The tropical Atlantic, Carbbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico remains quiet!
The end of the 2018 hurricane Season comes to a close today Nov 30, 2018, and predictions
we're slightly off.
It was first thought to be slightly below average season, but as August and September the peak of hurricane season came around they started popping like popcorn across the Atlantic. This made it an average to slightly above average season but not by much.
However, as we say, "all it takes is one" or in this case two to turn you life upside down, and those were Florence and Michael our only two Major hurricanes this season.
Between both hurricanes their we're 154 death and an approximate total of destruction cost of $33.27 billion in 2018 US Dollars.
I think the death total was kind of high for living in this generation of technology/ weather forecasting tools and awareness of the danger storm surge and rainfall in a hurricane can cause. I believe this is due to ignorance, and those that think experts are hyping the warnings.
We have seen this happen where they say it's going to be bad storm and it ends up being nothing like they said it was going to be, so people become complacent and because it was not bad they think I survive this storm I can survive others. That to me is a bad assumption on those who think that way!
We can't really blame the experts because every hurricane does not behave the same as the other, and this is due to uncertain, and complex atmospheric conditions that are constantly changing.
Yes forecast are becoming better and more accurate every year but there are still those variables in the weather that I call monkey wrenches that can through off a forecast.
Remember no matter how accurate forecast becomes throughout the years it will never be a perfect science.
So this is why you must not become complacent and ignore evacuation and preparation advice given by those that are there to warn you from impending landfall threat.
Always enter every hurricane season prepared and with a plan of action, and always heed the advice, and leave if told to evcuate.
Lets keep those death toll numbers down and not become a statistic. Never under estimate the power of one of these storms big or small.
Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)
|Total fatalities||154 total|
|Total damage||> $33.27 billion (2018 USD)|
Thursday, November 29, 2018
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
Friday, November 23, 2018
The tropics remains quiet, however, models are still suggesting low pressure developing in the Western Gulf of Mexico and tracking toward the west-northwest and across Florida. NHC is monitoring an area near the for low chance for development with five day. Probably associated with gulf low. See below models and NHC potential development map...RTW
Wednesday, November 21, 2018
I don't see any signs of development at this time.
However, the EURO model is hinting at the development of a small low pressure coming out of the Bay of Campeche or Southern Gulf of Mexico.
If this low were to develop and stay on this forecast track, it would take a path across Southern Florida.
None of the models are hinting on the development of this low.
Since it is the EURO model hinting on development I will monitor it as we near the end of this destructive hurricane season...RTW
Tuesday, November 20, 2018
There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation not expected through Thursday...RTW
Maps courtesy of Intellicast WSI