Monday, June 17, 2024

..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE 0349 PM JUNE 17, 2024..

 


1. The Bay of Campeche storm system, the Central American Gyre 91L, is producing heavy rains and storms over the north Yucatan peninsula, with the potential for deadly flash floods and mudslides. 
 
As this storm system crosses the BOC and heads toward north Mexico and southern Texas, gusty winds and heavy rain will spread over Texas and Mexico, with additional potential for flash flooding. 
 
NHC is giving this system an equal chance for development—70% within 48 hours and seven days. 
 
Gale winds will spread across the west as this system moves toward the coast. Most of the stronger wind gusts seem to be north of the center.
 
2. An upper-level low pressure and a decaying frontal boundary/surface trough east of the Bahamas are forecast to track west or northwest toward the southeast U.S. So far, models are not showing anything significant, but they will be monitored.
 
NHC is giving this system a 10/30% formation chance within 48 hours and seven days.
 
For a more complete update, check out the out the NHC tropical update below.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171742
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Satellite and surface observations indicate that a broad area of 
low pressure is located over the Bay of Campeche with winds of 
35-40 mph occurring in an area well to the northeast of the center 
over the southern Gulf of Mexico.  Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression or 
tropical storm is likely to form by midweek while the low moves 
slowly west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast. 

Regardless of development, several more days of heavy rainfall are 
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and 
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash 
flooding.  Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over 
portions of Texas and Louisiana by the middle of the week.  In 
addition, gale warnings have been issued for portions of the Gulf of 
Mexico, and more information on those warnings is available in High 
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  Interests 
along the western and northwestern Gulf coasts should monitor the 
progress of this system, as tropical storm watches and warnings may 
be required for portions of this area later this afternoon or 
tonight.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
currently en route to investigate the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located several hundred 
miles east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and 
an upper-level area of low pressure.  Environmental conditions 
could be conducive for some development of this system during the 
next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward.  The 
system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeast United 
States on Thursday or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$ 
Forecaster Beven




 









Excessive rainfall outlook Moderate Risk for Texas through Thursday


All the heavy moisture is over the Gulf in association with this storm system.



Upper level condition are not favorable in the Gulf.  
Small area east of the Bahamas is marginally favorable .


Increasing shear seen below in the Gulf at this present time.  Decreasing shear over the Atlantic.















..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE

 


    000
ABNT20 KNHC 171133
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a broad 
area of low pressure is forming over the Bay of Campeche. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional gradual 
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely 
to form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or 
west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast. 

Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are 
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and 
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash 
flooding.  Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over 
portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the 
middle of the week.  In addition, gale warnings have been issued for 
portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on those 
warnings is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service.  Interests along the western and northwestern Gulf 
coasts should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the 
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located several hundred 
miles east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and 
an upper-level area of low pressure.  Environmental conditions 
could be conducive for some development of this system during the 
next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward.  The 
system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeast United 
States on Thursday or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Beven









Friday, June 14, 2024

..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 14, 2024..

 


1. As 90L moves further northeast, the moisture tail or trough attached to this low pressure will break away, losing the pull from the deep Caribbean moisture by Sunday into Monday. Models are showing less precipitation over Florida, so Sunday is looking much dryer.
  • 90L has a low chance of formation: 20% within 48 hours and 20% within 7 days. 
  • Upper-level winds remain unfavorable in the Atlantic for development. This system will more than likely merge with a cold front.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
2. As for the no-number storm investigation in the southern Gulf of Mexico, there is a medium formation chance of 50% within 7 days. As this system begins its process of development, the circulation from this low will begin to pull in the deep tropical moisture into the Gulf of Mexico and away from Florida. 
 
  • This system is forecast to track slowly west to a west-northwest toward Mexico or Southern Texas.
  • Upper-level winds are favorable in the southern Bay of Campeche, but north of the BOC off the Texas coast, upper-level winds are unfavorable.
RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141739
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Offshore of the Southeastern U.S. (AL90):
Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the low 
pressure area offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast is moving 
northeastward into the open Atlantic.  This system is expected to 
merge with with a front over the weekend, and the chances of 
tropical cyclone development are decreasing.  Regardless of 
development, heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across portions 
of the Florida peninsula through Saturday. For more information, 
see products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and local 
National Weather Service Forecast Offices.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of 
this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early 
or middle part of next week while it moves slowly westward or 
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

Weather Prediction Center products can be found at 
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and National Weather Service forecast 
information can be found at www.weather.gov

$$
Forecaster Beven
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
103 
ACCA62 KNHC 141740
TWOSAT

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
200 PM EDT viernes 14 de junio de 2024

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar del Caribe y el Golfo de México:

Mar adentro del Sureste de los Estados Unidos (AL90): Los datos de
satélite y las observaciones de superficie indican que el área de
baja presión en alta mar de la costa sureste de los Estados Unidos
se está moviendo hacia el noreste al Atlántico abierto. Se espera
que este sistema se fusione con un frente durante el fin de semana,
y las probabilidades de desarrollo de ciclones tropicales están
disminuyendo. Independientemente del desarrollo, se pronostica que
las fuertes lluvias continuarán a través de porciones de la
península de Florida hasta el sábado. Para más información, vea los
productos emitidos por el Centro de Predicción del Tiempo y las
Oficinas de Pronóstico del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología
locales.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...10 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...baja...10 por ciento.

Suroeste del Golfo de México: Se pronostica que se formará una
amplia área de baja presión sobre el suroeste del Golfo de México
tarde este fin de semana o principios de la próxima semana. Las
condiciones ambientales parecen propicias para el desarrollo gradual
de este sistema, y una depresión tropical podría formarse durante la
parte temprano o a mediados de la próxima semana mientras se mueve
lentamente hacia el oeste o hacia el oeste-noroeste.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...cerca del 0 por
ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...media...50 por ciento.

&&

Los productos del Centro de Predicción del Tiempo se pueden
encontrar en www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov y la información del pronóstico
del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología se puede encontrar en
www.weather.gov

$$
Pronosticador Beven

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***








Total Precipitable Water


Upper Level Conditions






AXNT20 KNHC 140900


TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jun 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, portions of 
the Florida Peninsula, and the western Atlantic west of 72W: 
Ample deep tropical moisture continues to advect northeastward
across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico to over South Florida as
well as to over sections of central Florida and to across the
western Atlantic waters, reaching eastward to near 72W. The
persistent pattern of a surface trough that trails southwestward
from low pressure N of the area (Invest Al90) that is now near
32N75W to across central Florida and to the northern Yucatan
Peninsula combined with a broad mid to upper- level trough that is
to the northwest of the surface trough will continue to sustain 
numerous showers and thunderstorms to the southeast of the surface
trough impacting the aforementioned areas through at least 
tonight. This activity will be accompanied by cloud to surface 
lightning, strong gusty winds, rough seas and low visibility. 
Mariners transiting these regions should exercise caution. Please 
refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather forecast 
offices for specific local information.

Heavy Rainfall over Central America and Mexico: 
A Central American Gyre (CAG) continues to develop. Observations
are indicating that heavy rainfall is already occurring before the
main event that is forecast to begin this weekend through the
morning of Friday June 21. The persistent moist onshore flow in 
the Pacific basins of Guatemala, Chiapas, Honduras and in El 
Salvador will favor 3-4 days of intermittent rounds of heavy 
precipitation. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts from your 
local weather forecast offices for specific local information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The tropical wave analyzed over western Africa on the 00 UTC map
has been removed from the 06 UTC surface analysis and will be re-
introduced once the tropical wave has fully emerged into the far 
eastern Atlantic. Active convection associated with this wave is 
impacting portions of western Africa, extending offshore to near 
20W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 39W from 02N 
to 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection
is occurring with this wave as it is moving through a dry and 
stable environment.

The Atlantic tropical wave analyzed near 55W on the 00 UTC 
surface analysis has been removed from the 06 UTC analysis as it 
has become unidentifiable.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 67W south of 15N to 
inland central Venezuela. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. No 
deep convection is noted with this wave over the Caribbean. This 
wave is expected to become absorbed into the CAG (discussed in the
Special Features section above) this weekend.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has been removed from the
surface analysis as it has started to get absorbed into the
developing CAG described under Special Features.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14N17W to
05N23W. The ITCZ continues from 05N23W to 07N38W and resumes from
07N40W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 10W and 20W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 44W and 51W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information 
about the ongoing heavy rainfall over the southeastern Gulf of 
Mexico and on an upcoming heavy rainfall event to impact some 
areas of southeastern Mexico.

A surface trough extends from central Florida to the Yucatan
peninsula. Active convection continues ahead of this trough over
the SE Gulf. Light to gentle winds are over the NE Gulf, withe
gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-3
ft range across the Gulf. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned trough will gradually weaken
through late today. A Central American Gyre is forecast to 
develop over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for a tropical cyclone to develop from this broad
area of low pressure, and a tropical depression could form over 
the southwestern Gulf during the early or middle part of next 
week. Active convection, along with increasing winds and building 
seas are expected with this system. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more 
information about the upcoming heavy rainfall event over Central 
America.

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds are over the north central Caribbean as
well as the western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are over
the eastern Caribbean. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range over the
central Caribbean, 4-5 ft over the western Caribbean, and 2-4 ft
over the eastern Caribbean. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across
the south- central Caribbean today. Moderate to fresh southeast 
winds are expected over the northwestern Caribbean today. 
Otherwise, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across
portions of the western and northwestern Caribbean over the next 
few days as a Central American Gyre develops. Expect increasing 
winds and building seas over the western Caribbean, including the 
Gulf of Honduras, over the upcoming weekend as the gyre develops. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for more 
information about the heavy rainfall over the western Atlantic
and over portions of the Florida peninsula.

A trough extends southwestward from low pressure N of the area to
inland central Florida. Deep atmospheric is present to the 
southeast trough. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted 
west of about 72W, with this activity extending over the Straits 
of Florida and to sections of central Cuba. Fresh to strong winds
and 6 to 8 ft seas are east of the trough to near 72W and N of 
29N. To the east of the surface trough, broad troughing prevails
to near 45W, while high pressure prevails E of 45W. Gentle to 
moderate winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft seas dominate the basin west 
of 35W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail east of 35W, except for 
fresh to strong northeast winds from the Cabo Verde Islands to the
Canary Islands, including along the coast of Africa. Seas are 5 
to 7 ft across this area. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the showers and thunderstorms 
associated with the system discussed above will impact the waters
W of 70W over the next day or so. Gusty winds, higher seas and 
frequent lightning will be possible with this convective activity.
Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the western 
Atlantic ahead of this system through tonight. As the low center 
moves further from the area, high pressure will build southward 
over the western Atlantic this weekend into early next week.

$$
AL






Thursday, June 13, 2024

..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE STORM INVEST 90L JUNE 13, 2024..

 


Well, this tropical pain called Invest 90L is once again going to enhance the deep tropical moisture for another round of excessive rainfall over southern Florida today. 
 
The Weather Prediction Center has raised the risk for a portion of Miami Dade and Southern Broward from moderate to high for widespread flash flooding to occur. So we all need to be ready, as storms are tracking east from the Gulf, and some are already developing over land as the sun heats the surface and helps to seed the clouds with more moisture.






SPC also has a marginal risk for severe storms, and you can't rule out a severe storm spinning off an isolated tornado or two.


Saturday and Sunday are looking a bit better with no excessive rainfall outlook, and some models show less of a rain chance. 

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring both systems for tropical cyclone formation. See the maps below.
RTW