Monday, August 13, 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 13, 2018...0318 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
190 
AXNT20 KNHC 131753
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
153 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 20N 
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are in the monsoon trough area, from 07N to 10N 
between 26W and 34W. It is possible that any precipitation may be 
more related to the monsoon trough than to just the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W from 21N 
southward, moving west 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate to locally 
strong rainshowers are from 10N to 13N between 40W and 44W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 21N 
southward. It is possible that any precipitation may be more 
related to the ITCZ than to just the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from 22N 
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong 
rainshowers are between Jamaica and SE Cuba. It is possible that 
this precipitation may be more related to the current upper level 
cyclonic wind flow than to just the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 15N17W, to 10N24W 09N29W and 10N41W. The ITCZ is along 08N46W 
to 09N59W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 09N 
to 11N between 60W and 62W, near Venezuela and Trinidad. Widely 
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere 
from 08N to 12N between 58W and 64W. Isolated moderate to locally 
strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 07N to 11N between 46W and 
56W. Other isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 44W 
eastward. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, for Trinidad, that
is listed for the period that ended at 13/1200 UTC...according to
the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... 
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.81. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 24N southward from 90W
westward. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest
of the area. 

A surface trough extends from the Florida Big Bend to 25N85W in
the SE part of the Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 26N to 29N between Florida
and 91W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N
northward from 92W eastward.

A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 27N89W.

A nocturnal trough will develop during the evening hours in the 
Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each 
night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will 
accompany this trough. The trough will become weaker by the middle
of the week, and it will allow the wind speeds to subside. A
surface ridge generally will support light to moderate E to SE 
winds in the remainder of the basin through Friday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow across the
Caribbean Sea from 14N northward from the Windward Passage
westward, including to 90W in the Yucatan Peninsula and in Central
America. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover 
the area that is from 15N northward between 75W and 90W. The areas
of the comparatively greatest concentration of precipitation are:
from the coast of Honduras to 20N in the Yucatan Peninsula between
84W and 90W, and between Jamaica and SE Cuba.

Broken low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover
the areas that are from 17N to 21N between 58W and the Windward
Passage, and from 12N to 18N between 65W and 74W.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N between 73W in Colombia and
85W in Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are within 45 nm on either side of the line that runs
from 09N80W at the coast of Panama, to 12N85W in south central
Nicaragua. 

Surface high pressure, that is to the north of the area, will 
maintain fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea 
through Tuesday. Earlier strong to minimal gale force winds, that
were being experienced along the coast of Colombia and in the 
Gulf of Venezuela, have begun to subside. The wind speeds and the 
sea heights in the Caribbean Sea will subside during the middle of
the week, as the western Atlantic Ocean high pressure center 
gradually weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, from an upper level trough, covers
the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba and Hispaniola northward from 70W
westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in
the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 22N northward between 35W and 60W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 28N
northward between 45W and 56W. A low pressure center and a surface
trough are to the north of the area, along 50W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N34W, to 28N50W, to a second 1024 mb high pressure
center that is near 30N63W, to the NW Bahamas.

The surface ridge will remain in place during the next several 
days. This ridge will help to maintain fresh to locally strong 
winds along the northern coast of Hispaniola and in the 
approaches to the Windward Passage, during the evening and 
nighttime hours. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow will 
continue N of 23N, while mainly moderate easterly wind flow will 
prevail S of 23N.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
-----------------------------------------------------------------
STORM INVESTIGATION
049 
ABNT20 KNHC 131713
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad
non-tropical area of low pressure located a little more than 600
miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Some development
could occur within this complex low pressure area while it moves
toward the northeast during the next 2 to 3 days before it reaches
the colder waters of the North Atlantic. 
 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila
------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL OUTLOOK AUG 13, 2018... 1053 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center
617 
AXNT20 KNHC 131204
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W/24W, from 20N 
southward, moving west 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
in the monsoon trough area. It is possible that any precipitation
may be more related to the monsoon trough than to just the 
tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W from 21N 
southward, moving west 10-15 kt. This wave is depicted in model 
diagnostics and 700 mb streamline analysis, and TPW imagery shows 
moderate moisture in its vicinity. Isolated moderate to locally 
strong rainshowers are from 10N to 13N between 40W and 43W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W from 21N 
southward, moving west 15-20 kt. This wave is also depicted in 
model diagnostics. It is possible that any precipitation may be
more related to the monsoon trough than to just the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W from 22N 
southward, moving west 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are between Jamaica and SE Cuba. It is possible that
this precipitation may be more related to the current upper level
cyclonic wind flow than to just the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of NW
Mauritania near 21N17W, to 16N21W 10N26W and 10N40W. The ITCZ is 
along 08N between 45W and 55W. Widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong rainshowers are from 07N to 11N between land and 
22W, and from 04N to 10N between 26W and 38W, and from 07N to 11N 
between 47W and 63W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb
high centered near 28N88W. With this, a gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic flow prevails across the area. To the southwest, a 
surface trough extends over the Bay of Campeche from 23N93W to 
19N92W. 

A nocturnal trough will develop during the evening hours in the 
Yucatan Peninsula before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each 
night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will 
accompany this trough. It will become weaker by mid-week. High
pressure, elsewhere, generally will support light to moderate E 
to SE winds in the remainder of the basin through Friday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is centered near 21N80W. This feature is 
enhancing convection across the northwest Caribbean waters mainly 
north of 18W and west of 79W, including western Cuba. A tropical 
wave is along 72W. The monsoon trough extends along 10N between 
76W- 82W. Scattered showers are in Panama and Costa Rica.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong 
winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday. Strong 
to minimal gale force winds are expected along the coast of 
Colombia and Gulf of Venezuela through early this morning. Winds 
and seas in the Caribbean Sea will subside during mid-week as the
western Atlantic Ocean high pressure weakens slightly.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level low is centered in the northwestern Caribbean Sea 
near 21N80W. This feature is also enhancing convection across the 
western Atlantic Ocean, mainly across the Bahamas. Three tropical
waves are moving across the basin. The remainder of the basin is 
under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1026 mb high
centered near 31N61W and another 1026 mb high near 34N35W. 

The surface ridge will remain in place during the next several 
days. This ridge will help to maintain fresh to locally strong 
winds along the northern coast of Hispaniola and in the 
approaches to the Windward Passage, during the evening and 
nighttime hours. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow will 
continue N of 23N, while mainly moderate easterly wind flow will 
prevail S of 23N.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
era/mt 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
-----------------------------------------------------------------
STORM INVESTIGATION
112 
ABNT20 KNHC 131134
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical broad area of low pressure is located a little more
than 600 miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.
Conditions could become somewhat favorable for subtropical or
tropical development during the next 2 or 3 days, and if formation
occurs, the system should move toward the northeast over the
north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila
------------------------------------------------------------------
 The tropics reamin quiet just that one swirl with a low chance
for development within the next few days... RTW 
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/ 
  

Sunday, August 12, 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 12, 2018... 1212 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
420 
AXNT20 KNHC 121205
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sun Aug 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF 
VENEZUELA...

NE-to-E GALE-FORCE WINDS are being experienced from 11N to 13N 
between 70W and 76W, including in the Gulf of Venezuela. Expect
sea heights to range from 9 feet to 13 feet, in the Caribbean Sea
but not in the Gulf of Venezuela. Expect the GALE-FORCE wind
conditions to continue for the next 12 hours or so, before slowing
down to less than gale-force. GALE-FORCE wind conditions will
start again Monday morning in the same areas, and last for 12
hours or so, ending during the early afternoon hours. Please read
the High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the WMO/AFOS 
headers, as FZNT02 KNHC/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 16W/17W from 19N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 04N to 11N between land and 20W. 
It is easily possible that some of this precipitation also
is related to the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 21N 
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 02N to 17N 
between 34W and 42W. It is easily possible that some of this 
precipitation also is related to the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/50W from 21N 
southward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 08N to 10N between 48W and 56W. Isolated moderate to locally 
strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 06N to 10N between 44W and 
60W. It is easily possible that some of this precipitation also is
related to the monsoon trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W from 21N 
southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 14N in the Caribbean Sea to 24N in the Atlantic Ocean between
66W and 72W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 15N17W, to 12N37W, and 08N46W. The ITCZ is along 10N40W
08N45W 08N48W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 04N to 10N between 20W and 34W. Other broken
to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are 
elsewhere, away from the precipitation that is attributed to the 
tropical waves, from 10N southward from 40W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb
high centered near 27N87W. With this, a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow prevails across the area. To the southwest, a
surface trough extends over the Bay of Campeche from 22N94W to
19N94W. Abundant cloudiness and scattered showers prevail across
the west Gulf mainly west of 93W. An area of upper level
diffluence prevails across the southeast Gulf waters enhancing
scattered showers currently affecting the Florida Straits and
Keys. 

A nocturnal trough moving off the Yucatan peninsula
will induce a surge of fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Bay
of Campeche each night. Otherwise, high pressure ridging will
prevail across the area, supporting moderate to locally fresh SE
winds over the west-central and NW Gulf most of the forecast
period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean. 
Refer to the section above for details. An upper-level low is 
centered near 18N75W. This feature is enhancing convection across 
the northwest Caribbean waters mainly north of 20W and west of 
74W. A tropical wave extends its axis along 66W. For more 
information, refer to the section above. The monsoon trough 
extends along 10N between 76W-82W. Scattered showers are noted 
across Panama and Costa Rica due to this.

High pressure, that is to the north of the area, will support 
fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through 
Tuesday. It is possible that sustained wind speeds may reach 
gale force along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela from tonight into Monday morning. The winds and seas
in the Caribbean Sea will subside during the middle of the week, 
as the surface ridge that is in the western Atlantic Ocean weakens
slightly.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level low is centered over the northwest Caribbean near
18N75W. This feature is also enhancing convection across the west
Atlantic, mainly over the Bahamas. Two tropical waves are moving
across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge,
anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 29N54W and a 1030 mb high
near 35N35W.

The current surface ridge will remain in place during the next 
several days. The ridge will help to maintain gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic wind flow N of 23N, and mainly moderate easterly 
wind flow will prevail S of 23N. This scenario will support fresh
to locally strong winds along the N coast of Hispaniola and the 
approaches to the Windward Passage during the evening and 
nighttime hours. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
912 
ABNT20 KNHC 121143
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system located about 500 miles south
of Cape Race, Newfoundland is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms to the south of its center of circulation.  This low
could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics
through the middle of the week while it meanders over the central
subtropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch 

--------------------------------------------------------- 
  
The INVEST that was in the Central Atlantic has been removed
since there were no longer signs of any development.  The INVEST
in the North Atlantic remains and development if any will be short lived.
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/ 

 

Saturday, August 11, 2018

TROPICAL UPDATE AUG 11, 2018... 0713 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
925 
AXNT20 KNHC 111720
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 PM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA...

The 12-hour forecast, meaning on Saturday night, consists of 
frequent gusts to GALE-FORCE, near the coast of Colombia and in 
the Gulf of Venezuela. Expect NE to E winds 20 to 30 knots, from 
11N to 13N between 70W and 76W. Sea heights will range from 9 feet
to 12 feet. The 36-hour forecast, meaning on Sunday night,
consists of GALE-FORCE NE winds within 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia, and frequent gusts to GALE-FORCE winds in the Gulf of
Venezuela. The sea heights are forecast to range from 9 feet to 13
feet. Please read the High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the
WMO/AFOS headers, as FZNT02 KNHC/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W from 21N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 10N to 16N between 30W and 40W. It is easily
possible that some of this precipitation also is related to the
monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 21N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 09N to 12N between 40W and 43W. It is easily
possible that some of this precipitation also is related to the
monsoon trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W/63W from 21N southward.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
18N to 23N between 60W and 65W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea between 60W and 67W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 19N16W, to 13N30W, and 08N46W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N46W to 04N50W. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere, away from the precipitation that is attributed to the
tropical waves, from 18N16W 16N33W 12N60W southward. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N87W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W
eastward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the east of the
line that runs from SE Louisiana to the Florida Keys, and from
26N northward from 90W westward.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, along
92W/94W, from 22N southward into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Gulf of Mexico from 26N southward from 90W westward. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are along the coast of
Mexico from 26N southward from 94W westward. Other broken 
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 
26N southward from 88W westward.

A surface ridge passes across the NW Bahamas, to a 1018 mb high
pressure center that is near 27N88W, and it continues to the lower
Rio Grande Valley of Texas. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind
flow covers much of the Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle winds 
cover the NE part of the area. The sea heights are in the range of
1 foot to 2 feet in the NE corner of the area, and in the range 
of 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere. 

The current surface ridge will prevail across the area through 
early next week. The ridge will support moderate to fresh SE 
winds in the west-central and NW Gulf. A nocturnal trough moving 
off the Yucatan peninsula will induce a surge of fresh to strong 
NE to E winds in the Bay of Campeche each night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N73W in the
Atlantic Ocean. A trough extends from the 23N73W cyclonic center 
to 14N76W in the Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind flow 
covers the Caribbean Sea from 14N northward between 63W and 84W. 
Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 15N northward between the 
Mona Passage and 83W.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N, from 73W in Colombia beyond 
southern Costa Rica. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 12N southward from 80W westward, in the
coastal plains/coastal waters from Panama to Costa Rica to
Nicaragua.

High pressure, that is to the north of the area, will support 
fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through 
Tuesday. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the Gulf of 
Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia tonight and Sunday night.
It is possible that sustained wind speeds may reach gale force 
along the coast of Colombia on Sunday night. One tropical wave is 
entering the eastern Caribbean Sea. The next tropical wave will 
enter the Caribbean Sea on Monday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N73W. A
trough extends from the 23N73W cyclonic center to 14N76W in the
Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean
Sea from 14N northward between 63W and 84W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from the
Greater Antilles northward elsewhere from 60W westward.
Rainshowers that are associated with a 62W/63W tropical wave are
from 18N to 23N between 60W and 65W. 

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 36N49W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 28N
northward between 40W and 58W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
from 28N northward between 44W and 57W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center that 
is near 35N30W, through 32N42W, to 27N56W 27N73W, across the south
Florida peninsula, to a Gulf of Mexico 1020 mb high pressure 
center that is near 25N87W. 

The current surface ridge will remain in place during the next 
several days. The ridge will help to maintain gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic flow N of 22N, and mainly moderate easterly winds 
will prevail S of 22N. This scenario will support fresh to 
locally strong winds along the N coast of Hispaniola and the 
approaches to the Windward Passage during the evening and
nighttime hours. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
----------------------------------------------------------------
STORM INVESTIGATION
055 
ABNT20 KNHC 111725
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is located about
midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Some slight
development of this disturbance is possible during the next day or
two while it remains nearly stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
central Atlantic in a few days. After it forms, the low could
gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while it
meanders over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
------------------------------------------------------------------
The tropics remain quiet for now!
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/  


Friday, August 10, 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 10, 2018... 0337 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
276 
AXNT20 KNHC 101731
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
131 PM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W S of 20N. The
position is in line with the long-loop satellite imagery and the
model diagnostics. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 04N to 
17N between 20W and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W S of 12N, moving
W 15 knots. This is a low amplitude and low latitude wave. Any 
nearby precipitation is probably more related to the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W S of 19N, moving
W 15 to 20 knots. A well-defined inverted V surface pattern is 
apparent in satellite imagery. Widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong rainshowers are from 14N to 18N between 57W and 
63W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea from 
16N southward between 60W and 67W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 18N16W to 12N30W to 07N41W. The ITCZ is along 
07N45W 05N52W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong 
rainshowers cover the area that is from 06N to 11N between 50W and
54W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 05N
to 10N between 33W and 50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico,
except for the SW corner of the area. A 1019 mb high pressure 
center is near 26N85W in the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico 
near 26N86W.

Broad surface low pressure covers the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are from 27N southward between 90W and land. 

A weakening upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
25N85W. The cyclonic center was comparatively much more well-
defined 24 hours ago. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are to the north of the line from 27N81W in
Florida, to 28N88W in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of the
Florida Panhandle, to 28N96W off the coast of Texas.

A surface ridge will prevail across the area through early next 
week. The ridge will support moderate to fresh SE winds in the 
western and central Gulf of Mexico. A nocturnal trough moving off
the Yucatan peninsula will induce a surge of fresh to strong NE 
to E winds in the Bay of Campeche each night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from a 23N68W Atlantic Ocean 
cyclonic circulation center, across Hispaniola, to 15N71W. Upper 
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N 
northward between 63W and 80W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover
the Caribbean Sea, in parts of Hispaniola, and in the Atlantic 
Ocean from 17N northward between 60W and 76W.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 74W in Colombia beyond
southern Costa Rica. Rainshowers are possible from 13N southward
from 76W westward.

High pressure, that is to the north of the area, will support 
fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through 
early next week. One tropical wave, moving into the eastern
Caribbean Sea today, will reach the central Caribbean Sea late on
Saturday, and then pass to the west of the region on Tuesday.
A second tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on
Monday. The winds will approach gale force on Sunday night and 
Monday morning along the coast of Colombia as the pressure 
gradient tightens. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface cyclonic wind flow is from 30N northward between Bermuda
and the U.S.A. A frontal boundary is to the north of the area.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic
Ocean from 25N northward between Bermuda and the U.S.A.

An upper level trough extends from a 33N50W cyclonic circulation
center to 28N55W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
cover the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward between 44W and 63W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N39W to 30N46W 27N63W, beyond
Lake Okeechobee in south Florida.

The current 32N39W-30N46W-27N63W-to-Lake Okeechobee surface ridge
will shift southward today, ahead of a surface trough that is 
forecast to move off the southeast coast of the U.S.A. on
Saturday. The ridge then will move N to 28N through early next 
week.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
------------------------------------------------------------------
STORM INVESTIGATIONS
396 
ABNT20 KNHC 101743
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of disturbed weather is located about midway between Africa
and the Lesser Antilles. Strong upper-level winds are likely to
limit development of this system for the next day or two, but some
gradual development is possible after that time while the system
moves slowly westward through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
central Atlantic in a few days. The low could gradually acquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics while moving slowly
northeastward for couple of days thereafter.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The tropics remains about the same but there are two areas
being monitored now.   One of them is an area of showers and storms
over the Central Atlantic and a mid-to upper level swirl of low pressure
over the north Atlantic. Development of the Central Atlantic system
if any should be short lived and also with the N. Atlantic system...RTW
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/ 

    

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 10, 2018... 1017 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center
077 
AXNT20 KNHC 101204
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W S of 20N, moving
W 10 to 15 knots. This wave is associated with a 700 mb trough. 
Isolated moderate rainshowers are possible from 04N to 17N 
between 20W and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W S of 12N, moving
W 15 knots. This is a low amplitue and low latitude wave. Any
nearby precipitation is probably more related to the monsoon
trough/ITCZ. 

An E Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 60W/61W S of 19N, 
moving W 15 to 20 knots. A well-defined inverted V surface 
pattern is apparent in satellite imagery. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are within 180 nm on either side of the line that runs
from 21N56W 16N59W 10N65W, from the Atlantic Ocean to the coast of
Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 17N16W to 10N30W to  
07N42W. The ITCZ is along 06N45W 03N51W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 06N to
10N between 35W and 43W, and from 08N to 11N between 48W and 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high is centered over the E Gulf of Mexico near 26N86W.
10 kt anticyclonic surface winds are over the E Gulf. A surface
trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N93W to 17N93W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the trough axis

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N84W, over 
the SE Gulf. Scattered showers remain over S Florida. Another 
upper level cyclonic circulation center is over Mexico near 
20N101W. Upper level diffluence is over the Bay of Campeche
enhancing convection. 

A surface ridge will prevail across the area through early next 
week, supporting moderate to fresh SE winds over the western and 
central Gulf. A nocturnal trough moving off the Yucatan peninsula 
will induce a surge of fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Bay of
Campeche each night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above. Scattered
showers remain over Hispaniola. More scattered showers are over
the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala, and El Salvador. 

The eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough extends over
Costa Rica, Panama, and N Colombia along 09N. Scattered moderate
convection is from 07N-11N between 75W-86W. 

The base of an upper level low is over the NE Caribbean enhancing
showers. A large upper level high is centered over the Gulf of 
Honduras near 17N86W. Anticyclonic upper level winds are W of 75W.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh
to strong winds over the south central Caribbean through early
next week. A tropical wave moving over the Lesser Antilles will 
reach the central Caribbean Sat night, and pass W of the region 
Tue. Another tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean 
on Mon. Winds will approach gale force Sun night and Mon morning 
along the coast of Colombia as the pressure gradient tightens. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A small area of scattered moderate convection is over the W
Atlantic from 29N-32N between 72W-75W due to the southern extent
of a surface trough. The remainder of the Atlantic is under high
pressure ridging from a 1030 mb high centered over the E Atlantic
near 38N23W to the W Atlantic near 25N63W. 

An upper level low is centered N of the Leeward Islands near
23N67W. Elsewhere, the base of an upper level low is over the
central Atlantic N of 27N between 45W-60W enhancing showers.

Ridging along 26N will shift southward today ahead 
of a trough moving off the southeast coast of the U.S. through 
Fri. The ridge will then move N to 28N through early next week. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
---------------------------------------------------------------
NEW STORM INVEST
808 
ABNT20 KNHC 101151
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of disturbed weather is located about midway between Africa
and the Lesser Antilles.  Environmental conditions are expected to
become conducive for some gradual development while the system moves
slowly west over the next few days.  By the middle of next week,
stronger upper-level winds could limit the chance for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
----------------------------------------------------------------
There is a new storm investigation in the Central Atlantic.  Same
strong wave I had circled on the website and mentioned in previous
post on blog.  Models suggest some development, but they are
suggest that it will weaken and dissipate before reaching the 
east Caribbean.  Elsewhere the tropics are quiet...RTW
 
 

Thursday, August 9, 2018

POST TROPICAL STORM DEBBY UPDATE AUG 9, 2018...0513 PM EDT (LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY NHC)

389 
WTNT34 KNHC 092036
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018
500 PM AST Thu Aug 09 2018

...DEBBY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...LIKELY TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.5N 40.5W
ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM NW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby
was located near latitude 45.5 North, longitude 40.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37
km/h).  This general motion is expected to continue for the next
few hours until the cyclone dissipates later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast until Debby dissipates later
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Debby.  Additional information can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
--------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 9, 2018...0354 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
770 
AXNT20 KNHC 091747
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Tropical Storm Debby...

The center of Tropical Storm Debby, at 09/1500 UTC, is near 44.5N
43.1W. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Debby 
is moving NE or 55 degrees, 15 knots. The maximum sustained wind 
speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 42N to 44N
between 42W and 45W. Debby is expected to continue moving 
northeastward while weakening. Debby is forecast to dissipate on 
Friday. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W/24W from 20N 
southward, moving W 15 knots, across the Cabo Verde Islands.
Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers in the monsoon trough 
are from 10N to 12N between 23W and 28W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N to 14N
between 18W and 20W.  

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W from 12N 
southward, moving W 15 knots. Widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong rainshowers are from 08N to 10N between 35W
and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W from 18N 
southward, moving W 20 knots. A well-defined inverted V surface 
pattern is apparent in satellite imagery. Isolated moderate to 
locally strong rainshowers are within 180 nm on either side of
the line that runs from 20N51W to 14N56W to 09N60W.

A tropical wave is inland, from the eastern part of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico southward, through Guatemala, into
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Rainshowers are possible within 60 nm
on either side of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania
near 17N16W, to 12N24W, 10N31W, and 09N37W. The ITCZ continues 
from 09N39W to 08N50W. Rainshowers are possible from 08N southward
between 30W and 55W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge extends from central Florida near 28N82W,
southwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico, toward the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. 

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N84W, in the
SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. Isolated moderate 
rainshowers cover the area from 25N northward from 90W eastward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in interior Mexico
near 20N100W. 

Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the waters, to the north of
the line that runs from 22N97W at the coast of Mexico, to SE
Louisiana along 90W.

A surface trough will develop in the Yucatan Peninsula from the 
early evenings to overnight hours during the next several days.
The surface trough will be accompanied by a surge of fresh to 
occasionally strong winds. A surface ridge will prevail elsewhere
across the area into early next week. The ridge will support 
moderate to fresh SE flow in the west central Gulf of Mexico, and
off the coast of Texas early next week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 16N
northward between SE Cuba and 60W. An upper level trough passes
through 22N67W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 16N66W in the Caribbean
Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 09N73W in Colombia, through NW Panama,
and beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. 
Scattered strong rainshowers are to the north of the line that
runs from 03N78W at the coast of Colombia, to 06N86W, and 10N88W,
in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Rainshowers are possible from 12N
southward from 74W westward.

High pressure that is to the north of the area will support fresh
to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through early
next week. One tropical wave will approach the Windward Islands 
and the Leeward Islands today, moving through the central 
Caribbean Sea by Sunday, and west of the region early next week.
A second tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean Sea 
and the central Caribbean Sea on Monday. The winds will approach
approach minimal gale force again on Sunday night NW of the Coast
of Colombia as the pressure gradient tightens temporarily.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical storm Debby is in the north-central Atlantic Ocean.
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details. 

An upper level trough extends from Bermuda to 22N67W to 16N66W in
the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 20N
northward between 60W and 70W. 

An upper level trough extends from a 34N50W cyclonic circulation
center to 30N51W and 27N58W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are within 60 nm to 90 nm on either side of the line
that runs from 28N59W to 29N52W beyond 32N48W.

A surface trough passes through 33N74W to 31N77W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 27N northward from 70W westward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center that
is near 39N23W, through 32N36W, to 28N49W, to 28N74W, to Florida
near 28N81W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic
Ocean from 20N northward between Africa and the eastern coast of 
the U.S.A.

The current 28N surface ridge will shift southward to 25N today. 
The ridge will be to the east of a trough, that will be moving off
the southeastern coast of the U.S.A. through Friday. The ridge 
then will move N to 28N through Monday. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
------------------------------------------------------------------
Cool seas surface temps and upper level shear and Sahara dust keeping
the Atlantic Basin quiet...RTW 
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/
  

NOAA'S UPDATED 2018 HURRICANE FORECAST

3h3 hours ago

COLORADO STATE UNIV. REVISED 2018 HURRICANE FORECAST

Revised 2018 Hurricane forecast by CO State Univ. calls for a below average remainder of the season. El Nino conditions in place to make this a calmer season...RTW

Although a calmer season expected, all it takes is one storm to ruin the day.  Remember Andrew in 1992 came during a strong EL Nino season.  So always be prepared!

http://www.iii.org/insuranceindustryblog/revised-2018-hurricane-season-forecast-august-2-2018/

TROPICAL OUTLOOK AUG 9, 2018... 1109 AM EDT


National Hurricane Center
431 
WTNT34 KNHC 091433
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 09 2018

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.5N 43.1W
ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 44.5 North, longitude 43.1 West.  Debby is
moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and it is
expected to accelerate northeastward through the day today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast, and Debby will likely dissipate later
today or tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
-------------------------------------------------------------------
107 
AXNT20 KNHC 091205
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Tropical Storm Debby...

The center of Tropical Storm Debby, at 09/0900 UTC, is near 43.6N
45.1W. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Debby is,
moving northeastward 15 kt. The maximum sustained wind speeds are
40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Debby is expected to continue 
moving northeastward while weakening. Debby is forecast to 
dissipate on Friday. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory 
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W/23W from 21N 
southward, moving W 15 knots. The wave is associated with a 700 mb
trough, and an embedded 700 mb low centered near 13N20W. SSMI TPW
shows a moist area S of 14N, and dry air N of 14N. Scattered 
moderate to strong rainshowers in the monsoon trough area, from 
10N to 13N between 20W and 25W. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 12N 
southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. This is a low amplitude and 
low latitude wave with Saharan dry air N of the wave. SSMI TPW 
shows a moist area along the wave axis. Widely scattered moderate 
to isolated strong rainshowers are from 07N to 10N between 32W and
38W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W from 18N
southward, moving W 20 knots. This wave has a well defined 
inverted V surface pattern noted on satellite imagery. The wave 
also has a large 700 mb trough associated with the wave. The wave 
is affected by Saharan dry air intrusion W of the wave axis and N 
of 12N. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within
180 nm on either side of the line that runs from 20N51W to 13N55W
to 08N60W. 

A tropical wave is inland, in central America, along 89W/90W from
18N southward, from Guatemala southward. Scattered strong
rainshowers are from 16N to 19N between 86W and 88W, in the
coastal plains/coastal waters. isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere from 15N to 22N between 85W and 89W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania
near 17N16W, to 10N29W and 07N40W. The ITCZ continues from 07N40W
to 07N50W, to 08N56W, and into northern sections of Guyana near
08N60W.  enters the eastern Atlantic near 18N16W and extends 
southwestward to 10N28W to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to
07N52W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave 
section, scattered showers are observed within 180 nm S of the 
ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An area of high pressure extends from the western Atlantic into 
the basin. A surface trough extends over the Bay of Campeche from
21N90W to 17N93W with scattered moderate convection within 120 nm
of the trough. An upper-level low is centered over the SE Gulf
near 27N84W. Another small upper level low is centered near Tamico
Mexico at 23N98W. 

A surface trough will develop in the Yucatan Peninsula from the 
early evenings to overnight hours during the next several days.
The surface trough will be accompanied by a surge of fresh to 
occasionally strong winds. A surface ridge will prevail across 
the area through into early next week, supporting moderate to 
fresh SE flow over the west central Gulf of Mexico, and off Texas
early next week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is exiting the basin. Refer to the section above 
for details. Gale force winds are along the coast of N Colombia. 
Please read the Special Features section above for details.

The monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean supports scattered moderate
convection south of 10N and west of 80W. This pattern will 
continue through the week. The next tropical wave is forecast to 
reach the waters east of the Lesser Antilles by early Friday, and
move across these islands this weekend. 

High pressure that is to the north of the area will support fresh
to strong trades in the central Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave 
will approach the Windward and Leeward Islands later today, moving
through the central Caribbean Sea by Sunday. A second tropical 
wave will move into the eastern Caribbean Sea and the central 
Caribbean Sea on Monday. The winds will pulse to fresh in the 
Gulf of Honduras through the week, reaching fresh to strong 
tonight. Winds will approach minimal gale force again on Sunday 
night NW of the Coast of Colombia as the pressure gradient 
tightens temporarily.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical storm Debby is in the north-central Atlantic Ocean.
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details. 

A 1021 mb high is centered over the west Atlantic near 26N74W. 
A small surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 29N64W to
26N65W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. The 
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, 
anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 41N24W. Little change is
expected through the next 24-48 hours.

A 27N surface ridge will shift southward to 25N today. The ridge
will be to the east of a trough, that will be moving off the 
southeastern coast of the U.S.A. through Friday. The ridge then will
move N to 28N through Monday. The wind speeds will pulse to fresh
to strong offshore of the northern coast of Hispaniola through 
the next several days.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
------------------------------------------------------------------
Debby is quickly dissipating as it tracks quickly east northeast.
Elsewhere a large wave off the coast of Africa is prodcuing
showers and storms along the monsoon trough.  So far the tropics
remain quiet in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/ 


 
 

Wednesday, August 8, 2018

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY UPDATE AUG 8, 2018... 0448 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
502 
WTNT34 KNHC 082031
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018
500 PM AST Wed Aug 08 2018

...DEBBY MOVING OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.0N 47.2W
ABOUT 1100 MI...1770 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 47.2 West.  Debby is
moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue today and tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Debby is forecast to dissipate on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to
the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
------------------------------------------------------------------



 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 8, 2018... 0357 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
962 
AXNT20 KNHC 081725
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
125 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Tropical Storm Debby...
Debby is located near 41.2N/48.3W as of 08/1500 UTC. Estimated 
minimum pressure is 1003 mb, moving northeast at 10 kt. Maximum 
sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Debby is expected 
to continue moving northeast through tomorrow while weakening. See
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...
Gale force winds will develop once again by 09/00Z over the area
north of Colombia from 11N-13N between 70W-76W. These conditions
will continue through Thursday morning. Please see the Atlantic 
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC 
for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis in the eastern Atlantic extends from 20N31W 
to 06N35W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The northern part of the wave is
affected by Saharan dry air intrusion. Scattered showers are noted
in the area where the wave meets the monsoon trough along 10N. 

A tropical wave axis in the central Atlantic extends from 19N47W 
to 07N49W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave has a well defined 
inverted V surface pattern noted on satellite imagery. The wave 
also has a large 700 mb trough associated with the wave. The 
wave is affected by Saharan dry air intrusion. No significant 
convection is observed with this wave at this time. 

A low amplitude tropical wave has entered Venezuela, extending 
its axis from 11N63W to 04N64W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave 
continues to be affected by intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust.
No significant convection is observed with this wave at this 
time. 

A tropical wave axis in the W Caribbean extends from 19N85W to 
05N85W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a moist environment 
as indicated by SSMI TPW imagery. It is also under an upper-level
diffluent environment. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 13N-21N between 83W-89W, and in the vicinity of the monsoon 
trough mainly south of 10N. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 22N17W and 
extends southwestward to 10N33W. The ITCZ begins W of a tropical 
wave near 08N37W and continues to 09N46W. Besides the convection 
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered showers are 
observed within 300 nm S of the monsoon trough east of 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An area of high pressure extends from the western Atlantic into 
the basin. A surface trough extends over the Bay of Campeche from
24N97W to 20N96W with scattered showers prevailing mainly west of
94W. An upper-level low centered over the Straits of Florida near
24N82W, enhancing convection across the Yucatan Channel.

A thermal trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula from the
early evenings to overnight hours for the next several days. A 
surge of fresh to occasionally strong winds will be associated 
with this trough. High pressure ridging will prevail across the 
area through the week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. Gale force winds will develop again
tonight. Please read the Special Features section above for 
details.

The monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean supports scattered moderate
convection south of 10N and west of 80W. This pattern will 
continue through the week. The next tropical wave is forecast to 
reach the waters east of the Lesser Antilles by early Friday, and
move across these islands this weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical storm Debby is over the north-central Atlantic. Refer to
the section above for details. Two tropical waves are moving 
across the basin. See the section above for details. 

A 1021 mb high is centered over the west Atlantic near 26N72W. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge,
anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 43N27W. Little change is
expected through the next 24-48 hours.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Other than Debby and a large wave about to move off the coast
of Africa, the tropics remain quiet for now... RTW
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/
   

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TODAY AUG 8, 2018

30m30 minutes ago
Today's Updated Thunderstorm Outlook.

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY UPDATE AUG 8 2018... 1056 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center
073 
WTNT34 KNHC 081434
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 08 2018

...DEBBY FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY OVER THE COLD WATERS OF
THE NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.2N 48.3W
ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 41.2 North, longitude 48.3 West. Debby is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue today and tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Debby is forecast to dissipate on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
----------------------------------------------------------------------
 




TROPICAL OUTLOOK AUG 8, 2018...10

National Hurricane Center
932 
AXNT20 KNHC 081159
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
759 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Sub-tropical Storm Debby is located near 40.8N/48.8W as of 
08/0900 UTC. Estimated minimum pressure is 1003 mb moving north 
at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. 
A turn toward the northeast is expected by Wednesday night. See 
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean from 
11N-13N between 70W-76W. The gale is forecast to end on 08/1500 
UTC. The gale is forecast to resume on 09/0000 UTC, and then end 
again on 09/1500 UTC. Please see the Atlantic High Seas Forecast 
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis in the eastern Atlantic extends from 20N28W 
to 06N31W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The northern part of the wave is 
affected by Saharan dry air intrusion. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 10N-13N between 28W-34W. 

A tropical wave axis in the central Atlantic extends from 19N45W 
to 07N47W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave has a well defined 
inverted V surface pattern noted on satellite imagery. The wave 
also has a large 700 mb trough associated with the wave. The 
northern part of the wave is affected by Saharan dry air 
intrusion. No significant convection is observed with this wave at
this time. 

A low amplitude tropical wave has entered the southeast 
Caribbean extending its axis from 12N62W to 04N62W, moving W at 
10-15 kt. The wave continues to be affected by intrusion of 
Saharan dry air and dust. This wave is forecast to dissipate over 
South America today. No significant convection is observed with 
this wave at this time. 

A tropical wave axis in the W Caribbean extends from 20N83W to 
05N83W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a moist environment at 
the lower levels as indicated by SSMI TPW imagery. It is also 
under an upper-level diffluent environment. Scattered moderate  
convection is noted from 13N-20N between 80W-89W, and in the
vicinity of the monsoon trough mainly south of 10N. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 15N18W and 
extends southwestward to 07N36W. The ITCZ begins W of a tropical 
wave near 07N36W and continues to 09N44W, then resumes from 08N48W
to 06N57W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave 
section, scattered showers are observed within 180 nm S of the 
monsoon trough east of 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An area of high pressure extends from the western Atlantic to the
NE Gulf of Mexico waters. A surface trough is over the SE Gulf
from 27N83W to 23N85W with scattered showers within 120 nm of the
trough. Another surface trough is inland over the Yucatan
peninsula. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is 
centered over the Straits of Florida near 24N81W. Another upper 
level low is centered over the NW Gulf near 28N94W. 

A thermal trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula from the
early evenings to overnight hours for the next several days. A 
surge of fresh to occasionally strong winds will be associated 
with this trough. The SE Gulf trough is forecast to move westward
over the tonight and Wed while dissipating. Otherwise, high 
pressure ridging will prevail across the area through the week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. A Gale Warning is also in effect. 
Please check the Special Features section above for details.

The monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean supports scattered moderate
convection south of 13N and west of 80W. This pattern will 
continue through midweek. The next tropical wave is forecast to 
reach the waters E of the Lesser Antilles late Thu, and move 
across these islands on Fri. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Sub-tropical storm Debby is over the central Atlantic. Refer to 
the section above for details. Two tropical waves are moving 
across the basin. See the section above for details. A 1020 mb 
high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N68W. A small surface
trough is also located over the W Atlantic from 29N66W to 26N66W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. The E Atlantic
is under the influence of a broad area of high pressure 
supporting fair weather. In the upper levels, a large upper level
trough is over the central Atlantic N of 26N between 40W-60W. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Formosa/ERA
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
------------------------------------------------------------------
Other than Debby, the tropics remain quiet for now...RTW 
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/