National Hurricane Center
190
AXNT20 KNHC 131753
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
153 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 20N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are in the monsoon trough area, from 07N to 10N
between 26W and 34W. It is possible that any precipitation may be
more related to the monsoon trough than to just the tropical wave.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W from 21N
southward, moving west 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 10N to 13N between 40W and 44W.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 21N
southward. It is possible that any precipitation may be more
related to the ITCZ than to just the tropical wave.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from 22N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are between Jamaica and SE Cuba. It is possible that
this precipitation may be more related to the current upper level
cyclonic wind flow than to just the tropical wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 15N17W, to 10N24W 09N29W and 10N41W. The ITCZ is along 08N46W
to 09N59W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 09N
to 11N between 60W and 62W, near Venezuela and Trinidad. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere
from 08N to 12N between 58W and 64W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 07N to 11N between 46W and
56W. Other isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 44W
eastward. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, for Trinidad, that
is listed for the period that ended at 13/1200 UTC...according to
the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.81.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 24N southward from 90W
westward. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest
of the area.
A surface trough extends from the Florida Big Bend to 25N85W in
the SE part of the Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 26N to 29N between Florida
and 91W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N
northward from 92W eastward.
A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 27N89W.
A nocturnal trough will develop during the evening hours in the
Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each
night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will
accompany this trough. The trough will become weaker by the middle
of the week, and it will allow the wind speeds to subside. A
surface ridge generally will support light to moderate E to SE
winds in the remainder of the basin through Friday night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow across the
Caribbean Sea from 14N northward from the Windward Passage
westward, including to 90W in the Yucatan Peninsula and in Central
America. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover
the area that is from 15N northward between 75W and 90W. The areas
of the comparatively greatest concentration of precipitation are:
from the coast of Honduras to 20N in the Yucatan Peninsula between
84W and 90W, and between Jamaica and SE Cuba.
Broken low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover
the areas that are from 17N to 21N between 58W and the Windward
Passage, and from 12N to 18N between 65W and 74W.
The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N between 73W in Colombia and
85W in Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are within 45 nm on either side of the line that runs
from 09N80W at the coast of Panama, to 12N85W in south central
Nicaragua.
Surface high pressure, that is to the north of the area, will
maintain fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea
through Tuesday. Earlier strong to minimal gale force winds, that
were being experienced along the coast of Colombia and in the
Gulf of Venezuela, have begun to subside. The wind speeds and the
sea heights in the Caribbean Sea will subside during the middle of
the week, as the western Atlantic Ocean high pressure center
gradually weakens.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Upper level cyclonic wind flow, from an upper level trough, covers
the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba and Hispaniola northward from 70W
westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in
the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 22N northward between 35W and 60W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 28N
northward between 45W and 56W. A low pressure center and a surface
trough are to the north of the area, along 50W.
A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N34W, to 28N50W, to a second 1024 mb high pressure
center that is near 30N63W, to the NW Bahamas.
The surface ridge will remain in place during the next several
days. This ridge will help to maintain fresh to locally strong
winds along the northern coast of Hispaniola and in the
approaches to the Windward Passage, during the evening and
nighttime hours. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow will
continue N of 23N, while mainly moderate easterly wind flow will
prevail S of 23N.
For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
$$
MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
-----------------------------------------------------------------
STORM INVESTIGATION
049
ABNT20 KNHC 131713
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad
non-tropical area of low pressure located a little more than 600
miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Some development
could occur within this complex low pressure area while it moves
toward the northeast during the next 2 to 3 days before it reaches
the colder waters of the North Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Avila
------------------------------------------------------------------
