Mesoscale Discussion 0144 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0559 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2017 Areas affected...Central and southeastern Louisiana...much of southern Mississippi...far southwest Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 071159Z - 071400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms should increase through the day. Very large damaging hail is possible over Louisiana into southern Mississippi, with isolated tornadoes as well. The threat will develop from west to east, affecting Alabama later in the day. DISCUSSION...Very cold air aloft will continue to spread eastward across the region today with upper trough axis near the Mississippi river by 18Z. At the surface, substantial low-level moisture is already in place from Texas into Louisiana, with mid 60s dewpoints. This has created an unstable environment with MUCAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range. A more stable air mass currently resides roughly half way across Mississippi and points east, but gradual destabilization is expected there as well. Low-level winds will remain veering with height, with 0-3 km SRH on the order of 200-300 m2/s2 throughout the day. Winds around 850 mb will tend to veer as the upper trough approaches, but at the same time, intense upper-level flow will spread southeastward across Louisiana into southern Mississippi, lengthening hodographs aloft and resulting in an increasingly favorable environment for very large hail. While tornadoes may not be the primary threat, a few will be possible due to supercell storm mode and sufficient low-level shear. The greatest severe risk overall is likely to exist from Louisiana into southern Mississippi in closer proximity to the more unstable air, which is not forecast to spread east very quickly. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 02/07/2017
Tuesday, February 7, 2017
IMPENDING SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTION OF THE MID SOUTH
Monday, February 6, 2017
UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY FORECAST
Tonight Feb 6, 2017
Partly Cloudy.
Lows around 70°F. East
northeast wind 5 to 10 MPH.
Tuesday Feb 7
Partly cloudy
with isolated showers during the day: Highs
around 84°F. East southeast wind 5 to 11
MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Partly Cloudy
during the night: Lows around 68°F. Southeast wind to 5 MPH.
Wednesday Feb 8
Mostly Sunny during
the day: Highs around 86°F. East wind to 7 MPH.
Mostly Clear
during the night: Lows around 66°F. South wind to 5 MPH.
Thursday Feb 9
Partly cloudy
with isolated showers during the day: Highs
around 82°F. West southwest wind to 11
MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Mostly Clear
during the night: Lows around 63°F. West northwest wind 11 to 19 MPH.
Friday Feb 10
Mostly Sunny
during the day: Highs around 75°F. North wind to 19 MPH.
Partly Cloudy
during the night: Lows around 63°F. Northeast wind 9 to 17 MPH.
Saturday Feb 11
Partly Cloudy during the day: Highs around 75°F. East wind 8 to 13 MPH.
Partly Cloudy
during the night: Lows around 64°F. East wind to 7 MPH, gusting to 13 MPH.
Sunday Feb 12
Partly Cloudy
during the day: Highs around 77°F. East wind to 11 MPH.
Sunday, February 5, 2017
UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY FORECAST
Tonight Sunday Feb 5, 2017
Mostly Clear.
Lows around 68°F.
East wind to 9 MPH.
Monday Feb 6
Partly Cloudy
during the day: Highs around 81°F. East northeast wind 9 to 16 MPH, gusting to 21
MPH.
Partly cloudy
with isolated showers during the night: Lows
around 70°F. East wind 6 to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday Feb 7
Partly cloudy
with isolated showers during the day: Highs
around 81°F. East wind 6 to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Partly cloudy
with isolated showers night: Lows around 68°F. Southeast
wind to 6 MPH.
Chance of
precipitation 20 percent.
Wednesday Feb 8
Mostly Sunny during
the day: Highs around 82°F. South wind
to 8 MPH.
Mostly Clear
during the night: Lows around 66°F. South
southeast wind to 8 MPH.
Thursday Feb 9
Partly cloudy
with isolated showers during the day: Highs
around 82°F. West southwest wind to 11
MPH.
Partly Cloudy
during the night: Lows around 63°F. West wind to 15 MPH.
Friday Feb 10
Mostly Sunny
during the day: Highs around 75°F. North
wind to 18 MPH.
Partly Cloudy
during the night: Lows around 63°F. Northeast wind 12 to 17 MPH.
Saturday Feb 11
Partly Cloudy
during the day: Highs around 75°F. East northeast wind to 13 MPH.
Partly Cloudy
during the night: Lows around 63°F. East wind 8 to 13 MPH.
Forecast maps are courtesy of NWS Miami Florida
Saturday, February 4, 2017
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