IMPENDING SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTION OF THE MID SOUTH

 Mesoscale Discussion 0144
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0559 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2017

   Areas affected...Central and southeastern Louisiana...much of
   southern Mississippi...far southwest Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 071159Z - 071400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms should increase
   through the day. Very large damaging hail is possible over Louisiana
   into southern Mississippi, with isolated tornadoes as well. The
   threat will develop from west to east, affecting Alabama later in
   the day.

   DISCUSSION...Very cold air aloft will continue to spread eastward
   across the region today with upper trough axis near the Mississippi
   river by 18Z. At the surface, substantial low-level moisture is
   already in place from Texas into Louisiana, with mid 60s dewpoints.
   This has created an unstable environment with MUCAPE in the
   1500-2000 J/kg range. A more stable air mass currently resides
   roughly half way across Mississippi and points east, but gradual
   destabilization is expected there as well.

   Low-level winds will remain veering with height, with 0-3 km SRH on
   the order of 200-300 m2/s2 throughout the day. Winds around 850 mb
   will tend to veer as the upper trough approaches, but at the same
   time, intense upper-level flow will spread southeastward across
   Louisiana into southern Mississippi, lengthening hodographs aloft
   and resulting in an increasingly favorable environment for very
   large hail. While tornadoes may not be the primary threat, a few
   will be possible due to supercell storm mode and sufficient
   low-level shear. 

   The greatest severe risk overall is likely to exist from Louisiana
   into southern Mississippi in closer proximity to the more unstable
   air, which is not forecast to spread east very quickly.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 02/07/2017 

UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY FORECAST

Tonight Feb 6, 2017

Partly Cloudy.  Lows around 70°F. East northeast wind 5 to 10 MPH.

Tuesday Feb 7

Partly cloudy with isolated showers during the day:  Highs around 84°F.  East southeast wind 5 to 11 MPH.  Chance of rain 20 percent.

Partly Cloudy during the night:  Lows around 68°F.  Southeast wind to 5 MPH.

Wednesday Feb 8

Mostly Sunny during the day:  Highs around 86°F.  East wind to 7 MPH.

Mostly Clear during the night:  Lows around 66°F.  South wind to 5 MPH.

Thursday Feb 9

Partly cloudy with isolated showers during the day:  Highs around 82°F.  West southwest wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Mostly Clear during the night:  Lows around 63°F.  West northwest wind 11 to 19 MPH.

Friday Feb 10

Mostly Sunny during the day:  Highs around 75°F.  North wind to 19 MPH.

Partly Cloudy during the night:  Lows around 63°F.  Northeast wind 9 to 17 MPH.

Saturday Feb 11

Partly Cloudy  during the day:  Highs around 75°F.  East wind 8 to 13 MPH.

Partly Cloudy during the night:  Lows around 64°F.  East wind to 7 MPH, gusting to 13 MPH.

Sunday Feb 12

Partly Cloudy during the day:  Highs around 77°F.  East wind to 11 MPH.

Partly Cloudy during the night:  Lows around 72°F.  East wind 6 to 12 MPH.

MIDDLE SOUTH SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

Hail Point® ‏@HailPoint 4m4 minutes ago

Today's Updated Thunderstorm Outlook. #Hail #PDR #Roofing #Insurance #Hailpoint

UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY FORECAST

Tonight Sunday Feb 5, 2017

Mostly Clear.  Lows around 68°F. East wind to 9 MPH.

Monday Feb 6

Partly Cloudy during the day:  Highs around 81°F.  East northeast wind 9 to 16 MPH, gusting to 21 MPH.

Partly cloudy with isolated showers during the night:  Lows around 70°F. East wind 6 to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Feb 7

Partly cloudy with isolated showers during the day:  Highs around 81°F. East wind 6 to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Partly cloudy with isolated showers night:   Lows around 68°F. Southeast wind to 6 MPH.

Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Wednesday Feb 8

Mostly Sunny during the day:  Highs around 82°F. South wind to 8 MPH.

Mostly Clear during the night:  Lows around 66°F.  South southeast wind to 8 MPH.

Thursday Feb 9

Partly cloudy with isolated showers during the day:  Highs around 82°F.  West southwest wind to 11 MPH.

Partly Cloudy during the night:   Lows around 63°F. West wind to 15 MPH.

Friday Feb 10

Mostly Sunny during the day:  Highs around 75°F. North wind to 18 MPH.

Partly Cloudy during the night:  Lows around 63°F.  Northeast wind 12 to 17 MPH.

Saturday Feb 11

Partly Cloudy during the day:  Highs around 75°F.  East northeast wind to 13 MPH.

Partly Cloudy during the night:  Lows around 63°F. East wind 8 to 13 MPH.

Forecast maps are courtesy of NWS Miami Florida 

 

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

Hail Point® ‏@HailPoint 51m51 minutes ago

Today's Updated Thunderstorm Outlook. #Hail #PDR #Roofing #Insurance #Hailpoint