SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #38

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 38
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   635 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Southeast Indiana
     East-central Kentucky
     Western and central Ohio
     Lake Erie

   * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 635 PM
     until 200 AM EST.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms should continue to increase
   and organize through the evening hours in association with
   strengthening forcing and vertical shear ahead of a cold front and
   approaching upper-level trough.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
   statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of
   Cleveland OH to 60 miles south southeast of Louisville KY. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 37...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   24040.

   ...Guyer

 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #38

 AVIATION SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 

SVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 37
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   345 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Much Of Indiana
     Southern Lower Michigan
     Northwest Ohio

   * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
     1000 PM EST.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing over western Indiana along a
   cold front.  These storms will spread across the watch area this
   afternoon and evening, posing a threat of locally damaging winds and
   hail.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
   statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northeast
   of Flint MI to 35 miles southwest of Bloomington IN. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
   24035.

   ...Hart

 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOX 

 AVIATION SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOX

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS

917
WUUS53 KDTX 241957
SVRDTX
MIC161-242045-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0002.170224T1957Z-170224T2045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
257 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2017

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Washtenaw County in southeastern Michigan...

* Until 345 PM EST

* At 257 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Clinton, or
  near Tecumseh, moving northeast at 60 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near,
  Saline and Milan around 315 PM EST.
  Willis around 320 PM EST.
  Ypsilanti around 325 PM EST.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Ann
Arbor, Ypsilanti, Saline, Milan, Manchester, Dixboro, Willis, Salem,
Pittsfield Township and Whittaker.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4243 8360 4243 8355 4209 8354 4207 8413
      4220 8413
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 243DEG 52KT 4206 8402

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

Mann
----------------------------------------------------------

707
WUUS53 KDTX 242019
SVRDTX
MIC099-125-163-242130-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0004.170224T2019Z-170224T2130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
319 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2017

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Wayne County in southeastern Michigan...
  Southeastern Oakland County in southeastern Michigan...
  Southern Macomb County in southeastern Michigan...

* Until 430 PM EST

* At 319 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Canton to near Dundee, moving northeast at 55
  mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Severe thunderstorms will be near,
  Canton around 330 PM EST.
  Livonia around 335 PM EST.
  Belleville around 340 PM EST.
  Southfield, Flat Rock and Royal Oak around 345 PM EST.
  Warren and Romulus around 350 PM EST.
  Taylor, Wyandotte and Trenton around 355 PM EST.
  St. Clair Shores, Sterling Heights and Clinton around 400 PM EST.
  Mount Clemens and Downtown Detroit around 405 PM EST.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Livonia, Southfield, Taylor, Mount Clemens, Warren, Flat Rock, Grosse
Pointe, Downtown Detroit, St. Clair Shores and Romulus.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4253 8282 4244 8283 4236 8288 4232 8306
      4224 8313 4204 8315 4200 8313 4199 8315
      4200 8318 4203 8317 4202 8319 4201 8319
      4204 8320 4209 8329 4209 8354 4241 8354
      4264 8277 4254 8277
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 240DEG 48KT 4230 8356 4200 8373

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
-------------------------------------------------------------------

189
WUUS53 KDTX 242011
SVRDTX
MIC115-242045-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0003.170224T2011Z-170224T2045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
311 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2017

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northern Monroe County in southeastern Michigan...

* Until 345 PM EST

* At 311 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Britton, or
  near Milan, moving northeast at 60 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near,
  Dundee around 315 PM EST.
  Milan around 320 PM EST.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
Carleton, Dundee, Maybee, Azalia, Cone, Scofield, South Rockwood,
Oakville, Milan and Rockwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4190 8377 4208 8377 4209 8329 4207 8327
      4207 8326 4204 8321
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 241DEG 51KT 4202 8377

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH

UPDATED THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

Hail Point®‏@HailPoint 2m2 minutes ago

Tomorrow's Severe Thunderstorm Outlook. #Hail #PDR #Roofing #Insurance #HailPoint

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

Hail Point®‏@HailPoint

Today's Updated Thunderstorm Outlook. #Hail #PDR #Roofing #Insurance #Hailpoint

UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY FORECAST

Tonight Feb 23, 2017

Partly cloudy. Lows around 64°F.  West wind to 8 MPH.

Friday Feb 24

Partly Cloudy during the day:  Highs around 82°F.  Northwest wind to 8 MPH.

Mostly Clear during the night:  Lows around 66°F.  Northeast wind to 6 MPH.

Saturday Feb 25

Mostly Sunny during the day:  Highs around 82°F. West southwest wind to 8 MPH.

Partly Cloudy during the night:  Lows around 66°F.  South wind to 6 MPH, gusting to 11 MPH.

Sunday Feb 26

Partly Cloudy during the day:  Highs around 81°F.  East northeast wind to 11 MPH.

Partly Cloudy during the night:  Lows around 70°F.  East northeast wind to 14 MPH.

Monday Feb 27

Partly Cloudy during the day:  Highs around 82°F.  East southeast wind to 18 MPH.

Partly Cloudy during the night:  Lows around 70°F.  East southeast wind to 14 MPH.

Tuesday Feb 28

Partly Cloudy during the day:  Highs around 82°F.  East southeast wind 10 to 15 MPH.

Partly Cloudy during the night:  Lows around 72°F.  East southeast wind to 13 MPH.

Wednesday Mar 1

Partly Cloudy during the day:  Highs around 84°F.  East southeast wind 10 to 16 MPH.

Partly Cloudy during the night:  Lows around 73°F.  Southeast wind 5 to 11 MPH.

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK IN THE COMING DAYS

Hail Point®‏@HailPoint

Today's Updated Thunderstorm Outlook. #Hail #PDR #Roofing #Insurance #Hailpoint

EL Niño SEEMS TO BE MAKING A COME BACK!

Latest Sea Surface temperatures over the Pacific suggest that waters are warming.  Could this mean that EL Niño could be making a come back, and what will this means for this hurricane season? 

Well what this means is that the vertical upper level winds will increase from west to east across the Atlantic against the easterly trade wind currents that tropical waves travel on to cross the Atlantic from the African coast.  This all depends if in deed ENSO does return for the up coming season.

These vertical winds would shear the coldest thunderstorms cloud tops causing warming of the clouds and a disruption of tropical cyclone formation.  This would reduce the amount of storms developing in the Atlantic to a below average season.  

A good example of the vertical shear affecting cloud structure is, think of a sitting train from the old days with no wind on a clear day.  The smoke of that trains smoke stack would go straight up.  This is how thunderstorms accumulate around a low pressure area to form a tropical cyclone.  Now if that train began to move forward, the smoke would be blown behind the train.  That is the same principle of vertical westerly wind shear blowing against towering clouds around a tropical disturbance.  

This is why at times when a tropical storm is developing but is moving to fast, like 20 to 25 mph forward speed, it has a hard time keeping its cloud structure intact.  The coldest cloud tops which are the strongest storm clouds get blown behind the tropical cyclone causing the cold clouds to warm and weakening the thunderstorms. So this gives you an idea of what occurs.

However, all it takes is one storm to mess up your day.  A good example of that was Hurricane Andrew that developed during an EL Niño year.  Regardless of this you always need to be ready for any type of disaster, so always have a plan of action, and have a kit ready in case something occurs in your area.

RTW