UPDATE ON TODAYS GULF LOW AND COLD FRONT STORM PROBABILITY

After review the water vapor satellite/radar imagery, this system does not have the characteristics of producing severe weather.  I will continue to monitor, but so far it looks to be more of a rain event that severe storms.  You can never rule out the possibility of strong the severe storms as this system moves inland, but so far it seems to be a benign system.  Dry air behind the front in the brown color so the rains should be out of here later this evening and Thursday's rain chance are looking to be less than previously anticipated in yesterdays  forecast.  Were looking at about a 20 percent chance if at all.

RTW

  Hazardous Weather Outlook Text

FLUS42 KMFL 221329
HWOMFL

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
829 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
230130-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
829 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

...Scattered Thunderstorms Across South Florida Today...
...High Risk of Rip Currents for the Atlantic Beaches...
...Hazardous Marine Conditions Possible...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a High Risk of rip currents for the Atlantic 
Beaches today.

Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms will overspread the region from the 
Gulf of Mexico this morning and continue through the early evening 
hours. The main threats will be lightning, gusty winds, and locally 
heavy rainfall.

Waterspouts: Waterspouts will be possible with showers and 
thunderstorms over all South Florida waters.

Wind: South-southeasterly wind of around 20 knots are expected over 
the local Atlantic waters through this evening. A Small Craft 
Advisory is in effect. 

Flooding: There is a slight chance of some urban flooding along both
the Gulf and Atlantic coasts today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in Miami 
website at www.weather.gov/miami.

UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY FORECAST 0615 PM EST

Tonight Feb 21, 2017

Isolated Showers Partly cloudy with isolated showers.  Lows around 70°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Feb 22

Heavy rains and storms possible during the day: Highs around 77°F.  Southeast wind 9 to 15 MPH. Chance of rains 90 percent. Some storms could become strong to severe and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. 

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers night:  Lows around 63°F.  South southwest wind to 7 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Feb 23

Partly cloudy with isolated showers during the day: Highs around 81°F. West northwest wind to 7 MPH. After frontal boundary passage chance rain decreases to 20 percent.

Partly cloudy with isolated showers during the night:  Lows around 64°F. West southwest wind to 8 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday Feb 24

Mostly Sunny during the day:  Highs around 82°F. Southwest wind to 8 MPH.

Partly Cloudy  Night:  Lows around 66°F.  West wind to 7 MPH.

Saturday Feb 25

Mostly Sunny during the day:  Highs around 84°F. Northwest wind to 8 MPH.

Mostly Clear during the night:  Lows around 64°F.  West southwest wind to 11 MPH.

Sunday Feb 26

Mostly Sunny during the day:  Highs around 79°F. North wind to 15 MPH.

Partly Cloudy during the night:  Lows around 64°F.  Northeast wind to 13 MPH.

Monday Feb 27

Mostly Sunny during the day:  Highs around 81°F. East wind 9 to 15 MPH.

Mostly Clear during the night: Lows around 70°F.  East wind to 14 MPH.

 

 

RAINS AND STORMS FOR FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING!

A cold front and a developing low in the Gulf of Mexico will drag a prefrontal squall line across the Florida Peninsula Wednesday and Thursday.  

Although most of the models suggest a weak squall line by the time it gets to Southern Florida, some cells could become strong to severe in nature.  Since this is a fast moving line of storms you can't rule out isolated water spouts and tornado in the stronger cells.  

Rain chances have increased to 90 percent tomorrow during the day and 50 percent during the not.

 

UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY FORECAST

Today Feb 21, 2017

Partly Cloudy during the day: Highs around 81°F.  North northeast wind to 13 MPH.

Partly cloudy with scattered showers during the night:  Lows around 70°F.  East southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Feb 22

Windy with rain showers/storms likely during the day: Highs around 79°F. Windy, with a southeast wind 9 to 21 MPH, gusting to 26 MPH. Chance of rain 70 percent.  Approaching Cold From and low pressure development from the gulf will increase rains and storm chance for South Florida.  Some storms could be strong to may be severe as a squall line is forecast to move over the area.

Mostly cloudy with showers during the night:  Lows around 64°F.  Southeast wind to 19 MPH, gusting to 25 MPH. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Thursday Feb 23

Partly cloudy with scattered showers during the day:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 79°F. West wind 6 to 11 MPH.  Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Partly cloudy with isolated showers during the night:  Lows around 64°F.  West southwest wind to 10 MPH.  Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday Feb 24

Partly Cloudy during the day:  Highs around 82°F. West southwest wind to 7 MPH.

Partly Cloudy during the night:  Lows around 66°F.  West wind to 8 MPH.

Saturday Feb 25

Partly Cloudy during the day:  Highs around 82°F. Northwest wind to 7 MPH.

Partly Cloudy during the Night:  Lows around 64°F.  West northwest wind to 9 MPH, gusting to 17 MPH.

Sunday Feb 26

Partly Cloudy during the day:  Highs around 81°F.  North wind to 11 MPH, gusting to 19 MPH.

Partly Cloudy during the night:  Lows around 70°F.  East northeast wind to 10 MPH.

Monday Feb 27

Mostly Sunny during the day: Highs around 82°F.  East wind 8 to 14 MPH.