Tropical wave associated with the remnants of TD Four that have been flaring up thunderstorms to the north of the waves access. This is most likely due to the interaction with a mid to upper level low near 30° North Longitude and 57° West Latitude. The thunderstorm associated with this wave will pass north of the northern Leeward Islands Sunday evening and there could be some squally conditions moving through the northern Islands if the showers and storms expand southward.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
Saturday, July 8, 2017
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 8, 2017 0259 PM EDT
Monitoring the coast of Africa for possible development next week. The remnants of TD FOUR remain disorganized as it tracks west to a west-northwest. This system could bring showers and storms along with squally conditions to the Northern Leeward Islands this evening as the wave passes to the north. The east Bahamas will see their share of showers, storms in squalls on Monday. http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST
Today Jul 8, 2017
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs
around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F-104°F.
Southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:
Lows around 79°F. East southeast wind to 7 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Sunday Jul 9
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs
around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F-104°. East
southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:
Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East
southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Monday Jul 10
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs
around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain
40 percent.
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:
Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East
wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tuesday Jul 11
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs
around 90°F. Heat index around 95°F. East wind
to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:
Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 90°F. East
wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday Jul 12
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs
around 90°F. Heat index around 95°F. East
northeast wind 8 to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:
Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East
northeast wind to 12 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Thursday Jul 13
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs
around 88°F. Heat index around 93°F. East wind
to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:
Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 90°F. East
wind to 12 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Friday Jul 14
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs
around 88°F. Heat index around 93°F. East
northeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 8, 2017 0100 PM EDT
Other than the remnant low of tropical depression four the tropics remain quiet for now. I will continue to monitor whats left of Four as the remnants will pass over the Southern half of Florida next week. I will also be monitoring off the African coast for development next week. http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
Friday, July 7, 2017
DEPRESSION DEGENERATES TO AN OPEN WAVE LAST POST ON THIS SYSTEM
JULY 7, 2017 0500 PM EDT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DEGENERATES INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE ONCE AGAIN. DRY AIR AND FAST FORWARD MOTION DID THIS SYSTEM IN. THIS WILL BE THE LAST POST ON THIS WEATHER SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DEGENERATES INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE ONCE AGAIN. DRY AIR AND FAST FORWARD MOTION DID THIS SYSTEM IN. THIS WILL BE THE LAST POST ON THIS WEATHER SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 7, 2017 1215 PM EDT
Tropical Wave # 1 west of the African Coast has a lot of dry air and Sahara dust intruding into the surrounding of this wave. This minimizes the development of thunderstorms along the northern axis of the wave. However there seems to be some thunderstorms along the southern axis of the wave at present.
Tropical Wave # 2 over the East Caribbean is also encountering dry air, Sahara dust and wind shear. The likelihood of development is not likely at this. time
Tropical Wave# 3 is is encountering wind shear and this wave is moving over the Yucatan.
Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next couple of days. I will be monitoring to coast of Africa next week for another possible strong wave.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
Tropical Wave # 2 over the East Caribbean is also encountering dry air, Sahara dust and wind shear. The likelihood of development is not likely at this. time
Tropical Wave# 3 is is encountering wind shear and this wave is moving over the Yucatan.
Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next couple of days. I will be monitoring to coast of Africa next week for another possible strong wave.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 JULY 7, 2017 1051 AM EDT
Tropical Depression 4 is still moving too fast and is presently still moving through dry air. Neither of these conditions are favorable for this system to continue to develop. More than likely this system will have to be downgraded to an open wave as it continues to track toward the west-northwest.
I am working on the Tropical Weather Outlook maps and should have it posted here within an hour or so. Sorry for the inconvenience its just me doing all this.
RTW
I am working on the Tropical Weather Outlook maps and should have it posted here within an hour or so. Sorry for the inconvenience its just me doing all this.
RTW
Thursday, July 6, 2017
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 UPDATE JULY 6 2017 0500 PM EDT
As of 0500 PM EDT Tropical Depression Four remains disorganized as it tracks through dry air and speeds across the Atlantic near 23 mph forward speed. This speed for tropical cyclone does not help in the development process and the storm produces its own wind shear of over the cloud structure.
The depression is tracking almost due west, however, according to 18z model XTRP the direction of travel is west of due north while the Invest previous and present track is directly westward.
Not much change is expected unless it slows down but that does not look likely, as a 1029 mb High pressure system near 35° N. Long. and 35° W. Lat. is helping to steer this system quickly across the Central Atlantic.
Remember what I mentioned yesterday a weak system always tends to track west to west-northwest. A tropical cyclones path are governed by trough and low pressure weakening the High pressures ridge. As the High pressure ridge is weaken it opens a passage way for a well organized tropical cyclone to move into. However, in the case of an Andrew storm the High pressure got stronger and the ridge built westward over the cyclone strengthening it and turning it westward. There was no strong low pressure system or trough to prevent that westward track. So this depression could remain on the westward or west-northwest track until it weakens further and dissipates.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
The depression is tracking almost due west, however, according to 18z model XTRP the direction of travel is west of due north while the Invest previous and present track is directly westward.
Not much change is expected unless it slows down but that does not look likely, as a 1029 mb High pressure system near 35° N. Long. and 35° W. Lat. is helping to steer this system quickly across the Central Atlantic.
Remember what I mentioned yesterday a weak system always tends to track west to west-northwest. A tropical cyclones path are governed by trough and low pressure weakening the High pressures ridge. As the High pressure ridge is weaken it opens a passage way for a well organized tropical cyclone to move into. However, in the case of an Andrew storm the High pressure got stronger and the ridge built westward over the cyclone strengthening it and turning it westward. There was no strong low pressure system or trough to prevent that westward track. So this depression could remain on the westward or west-northwest track until it weakens further and dissipates.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 6, 2017 0416 PM EDT
Other than weak tropical depression four the tropical Atlantic remains quiet for now. Sahara dust and dry air over off the African coast affecting wave number one and wave number three is also being affected by dry and African dust that has made its way toward the Lesser Antilles. This dry air limits the development of thunderstorms along these waves axis. Some wind shear is also present over the west Caribbean that is also affecting tropical wave number 4. Elsewhere all remains quiet.
I will have an update on TD Four as soon as the data is released.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
I will have an update on TD Four as soon as the data is released.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 6, 2017 1100 AM EDT
RTW: Ralph's Tropical Weather
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR LOOKING ILL DEFINE THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE CONVECTION (THUNDERSTORMS) HAVE DIMINISHED.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING THROUGH DRY AIR AND IS PRESENTLY MOVING TO FAST 21 MPH FORWARD SPEED.
THIS PRODUCES SHEAR OVER THE THUNDERSTORMS AND THEY BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR INTENSITY. ON VISIBLE SATELLITE YOU CAN SEE FEATHERING OF THE CLOUD SURROUNDING THE DEPRESSION. THAT IS WIND SHEAR OVER THE STORM.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IT MAY HAVE TO BE DOWNGRADED TO AN OPEN WAVE AGAIN...RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR LOOKING ILL DEFINE THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE CONVECTION (THUNDERSTORMS) HAVE DIMINISHED.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING THROUGH DRY AIR AND IS PRESENTLY MOVING TO FAST 21 MPH FORWARD SPEED.
THIS PRODUCES SHEAR OVER THE THUNDERSTORMS AND THEY BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR INTENSITY. ON VISIBLE SATELLITE YOU CAN SEE FEATHERING OF THE CLOUD SURROUNDING THE DEPRESSION. THAT IS WIND SHEAR OVER THE STORM.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IT MAY HAVE TO BE DOWNGRADED TO AN OPEN WAVE AGAIN...RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
Wednesday, July 5, 2017
TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE JULY 5, 2017 04:14 PM EDT
RTW:
The center of circulation of 94L is remains exposed to the right of the convection (thunderstorms) ahead of the low level circulation. Most of the models keep this system weak and some even show it diminishing as it nears the Eastern Bahamas. This system has its own moisture surrounding the low but there is a wide area of dry air that this system has to track through and moderate easterly shear is also affecting the low/wave. It still has a chance for development before it runs into a more unfavorable environment. As for the track a weak system will tend to track west-to a west-northwest. However, this system has been generally tracking toward the northwest per model and past position/track issued for this invest during each model run. Some models still have that left bias and once again this could be that the Atlantic high will build westward in time or we will be dealing with a weak disorganized system that will not be influenced by any troughs moving off the east coast... Stay tuned here daily for the latest update on 94L.
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
The center of circulation of 94L is remains exposed to the right of the convection (thunderstorms) ahead of the low level circulation. Most of the models keep this system weak and some even show it diminishing as it nears the Eastern Bahamas. This system has its own moisture surrounding the low but there is a wide area of dry air that this system has to track through and moderate easterly shear is also affecting the low/wave. It still has a chance for development before it runs into a more unfavorable environment. As for the track a weak system will tend to track west-to a west-northwest. However, this system has been generally tracking toward the northwest per model and past position/track issued for this invest during each model run. Some models still have that left bias and once again this could be that the Atlantic high will build westward in time or we will be dealing with a weak disorganized system that will not be influenced by any troughs moving off the east coast... Stay tuned here daily for the latest update on 94L.
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
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