Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW

Monday, November 20, 2017

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NOV 20 2017 0952 AM EST

HURRICANE SEASON IS WINDING DOWN AND THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET AT THIS TIME.

I NEED TO KNOW FROM THOSE THAT VISIT THE TROPICAL WEBSITE IF YOU ARE HAVING PROBLEMS OPENING THE SITE. YOUR INPUT WILL DETERMINE IF I KEEP THE TROPIC SITE ONLINE OR CLOSE IT DOWN. THANKS FOR YOUR COOPERATION...RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

Saturday, November 18, 2017

LONG SEVERE SQUALL LINE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS

This long line of severe storms ahead of a cold front has been producing severe weather in its path and damage in some counties have been reported...RTW

‏ @TScott1323

@weswyattweather sent from my sister from Florence Alabama. It was advanced auto

‏ @MaggieWZDX

Damage to field house at Brooks High School in Killen @AustinWZDX #alwx

‏ @ao4au

@spann Tree down in Oneonta.

‏ @gostormchasevid

Tornado in Celina, Mercer County , severe weather in ,Ohio, USA, storm , winds, https://goo.gl/Xnu5WS #wx

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NOV 18, 2017 0817 PM EST

The tropics remain quiet and there are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time. http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

NON-TROPICAL LOW TO FORM IN THE GULF COULD DAMPEN THANKSGIVING IN FLORIDA

CMC AND GFS ARE HINTING ON A WET THANKSGIVING AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF AND TRACKS OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA...RTW

Friday, November 17, 2017

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 0105 PM EST NOV 17, 2017

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea.  Strong
upper-level winds should limit development of this system while it
drifts northward or northeastward during the next few days.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions
of the northwestern coast of Colombia, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico
through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 0341 PM EST NOV 15, 2017

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time. There still is a trough of low pressure that extends from the Southern Caribbean over Haiti, Dominican Republic, and into the Atlantic that has been producing heavy rains over the Southern Caribbean, and adjacent land area, Haiti and Dominican Republic. This moisture is gradually shifting east toward Puerto Rico as well. This is due to fronts that move over the Atlantic that tap into the moisture in the Caribbean and it begins to stream northeastward. Flash floods are possible if the rains train over the same area for long periods of time....RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

INVEST 96L MODEL UPDATE 0438 PM EST NOV 14, 2017

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have not become any better organized
today in association with a broad area of low pressure located about
250 miles south-southwest of the Azores. This system still has some
potential to become a subtropical cyclone during the next day or
so before upper-level winds become unfavorable. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo
France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin.

Forecaster Brennan

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NOV 14, 2017 1223 PM EST

There still is a trough of low pressure in the southern Caribbean. Development is not likely at this time. A series of cold fronts that will dip south in the coming weeks will prevent this system from tracking northwest or into the Gulf. We are looking good.

Correct to last:
As for INVEST 96L South-Southwest of the Azores will be short lived as upper level wind shear increases over the area in the coming days.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization during
the past several hours in association with an area of low pressure
located about 300 miles south-southwest of the Azores. This system
still has the potential to become a subtropical cyclone during the
next couple of days before upper-level winds become unfavorable.
Regardless of development, this low is expected to produce winds to
near gale force during the next day or two while it moves slowly
northeastward. For additional information on this system, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin.

Forecaster Brennan

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

COLD AIR BLAST STILL FORECAST FOR THE WEEK OF THANKSGIVING AND MONTH END

GFS AND EURO MODEL STILL INDICATING CANADIAN COLD AIR TO INVADE THE EAST, NORTHEAST AND SOUTH.

TRAVEL DISRUPTION LIKELY THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS DIP EAST AND SOUTH.

Monday, November 13, 2017

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NOV 13, 2017 1218 PM EDT

Other than INVEST 96L that the tropics remain quiet...RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131141
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of
organization in association with a low pressure system located about
600 miles southwest of the Azores.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some additional development, and the
system could become a subtropical cyclone during the next few days
while it moves slowly northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

Friday, November 10, 2017

GFS STILL HINTING ON A COLD END TO NOVEMBER

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SERVICE!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1006 AM EST NOV 10, 2017

The tropics remain quiet looks like it may stay this way according to long range models. Lets hope they are correct.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

Thursday, November 9, 2017

MORE ON THIS POSSIBLE COLD AIR FOR END OF NOVEMBER FROM OTHER SOURCE

‏ @weatheroptics

12z GFS not backing down on a cold and stormy end to November -- The pattern being portrayed would be ideal for some kind of big end of the month winter storm.. -EPO, -AO, W-Based -NAO, +PNA w/ a lobe of our PV breaking down into the eastern US. Good timeframe to watch.

GFS HINTING ON ANOTHER DIP IN THE JET STREAM IN THE COMING WEEKS

GFS IS ONCE AGAIN HINTING ON A DIP IN THE JET STREAM MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER AND THE WEEK OF THANKSGIVING. STILL TO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS FORECAST WILL HOLD BUT IF IT DOES IT WILL BE A COLD ONE ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INCLUDING FLORIDA.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1032 AM EST NOV 9, 2017

The tropics remain quiet! Rina is now post tropical and NHC will no longer be issuing advisories on this storm system as of 11 AM EST advisory.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

Wednesday, November 8, 2017

RINA UPDATE AND TROPICAL PAGE UPDATE 0500 PM EST NOV 8, 2017

...RINA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY THURSDAY MORNING...

000
WTNT34 KNHC 082031
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017
500 PM AST Wed Nov 08 2017

...RINA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY THURSDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.9N 48.6W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was
located near latitude 40.9 North, longitude 48.6 West. Rina is
moving toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected overnight, followed by a rapid
northeastward motion on Thursday and an east-northeastward motion
on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Rina is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by
early Thursday morning.

Rina is becoming a larger tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km), mainly to the east
of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net