HURRICANE JOSE UPDATE 0500 PM EDT 9/12/17

...JOSE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2017

...JOSE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 67.4W
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 67.4 West.  Jose is moving
toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn to the southeast
and south at a slow forward speed is expected over the next couple
of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Jose will remain well
to the east-northeast of the Bahamas through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch 

FINALLY HAD A CHANCE TO UPDATE MY WEBSITE 0353 PM EDT SEPT 12, 2017

MONITORING A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND JOSE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC.  JOSE STUCK IN A WEAK STEERING CURRENT BUT MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOT LOOPING BACK LIKE BEFORE.  I BELIEVE JOSE WITH TRACK BEHIND A 985 MB GALE CENTER SOUTHEAST NOVA SCOTIA WHICH IS TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST.  I WIL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT...RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

JOSE UPDATE FROM WORK NO ELECTRICTY AT HOME FOR UPDATES 1258 PM EDT 9/12/2017

Jose continues in a weak steering environment with no place to go.  It seems that this season has been this way.  First it was Harvey, now Jose.  High Pressure in the northeast Atlantic and the northwest with fronts becoming stationary north of cyclone has prevented Jose from tracking north and east by sweeping cold fronts.  

This is due to the jet stream being very active to help push cold fronts across the U.S. and turn these storms out to sea like previous years.  

Could Jose come toward the east coast?  Anything is possible if high pressure decides to strengthen over Jose and steers it back toward the west.  

The good new is that, Jose has been meandering in the same general area and this has caused cooling of the sea surface temps.  This has helped to weaken the cyclone to a Cat 1 from a Cat 4.  However, I been seeing on satellite very cold cloud tops near the center of circulation which is an indication that Jose is holding strong as a Cat 1.  I will keep you posted on the progress of Jose... RTW


...JOSE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

000
WTNT32 KNHC 121446
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2017

...JOSE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 68.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 68.3 West. Jose is moving toward
the east near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a turn to the southeast and south
at a slow forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the center of Jose will remain well to the
east-northeast of the Bahamas through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some slight weakening is forecast, and Jose could become a
tropical storm by tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch