TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 15 2018... 0339 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic, with axis extending from 
13N29W to 03N30W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave shows up well as a
low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. The GOES-16 
Geocolor RGB imagery shows the presence of the Saharan dust and 
dry air N of the wave at 15N. Isolated moderate convection is 
noted where the wave meets the ITCZ. 

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, with axis extending 
from 14N46W to 03N47W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well
depicted in the TPW product. Shallow moisture and isolated 
showers are near the wave's axis. 

A tropical wave is moving westward across the eastern Caribbean.
Its axis extends 61W/62W. African dust also surrounds the wave. 
As a result, shallow moisture with embedded showers is associated
with the wave. Moisture related to this system will reach Puerto 
Rico late today into tonight, and Hispaniola early on Sun,
increasing the likelihood of showers and isolated tstms.

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean, with axis along 82W
from 10N-19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstms 
are seen over the SW Caribbean, likely a combination of the wave 
and the proximity of the Monsoon Through. The wave will move 
westward into Central America through Sat, helping to induce some
shower and tstm activity. The GFS model indicates plenty of
moisture over Central America this upcoming weekend. 

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ralphstropicalweather.com

Days 1-5 Rainfall Outlook 

NEW STORM INVEST IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN JUNE 15, 2018...0141 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151718
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula is associated
with a surface trough.  While significant development of this system
is not anticipated, heavy rain and strong gusty winds are occurring
across the Yucatan Peninsula today, and will overspread the central
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and reach portions of the Texas and
southwestern Louisiana coasts by Sunday.  For more details on this
system please see products issued by your local weather office and
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Blake 

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Looks rather interesting on visible and water vapor satellite with a bit 

of circulation and some outflow.  None of the models are suggesting 

development in this region, but I will continue to monitor it closely...RTW 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 15, 2018... 1018 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis extending from 
13N28W to 03N29W, moving W at 10 kt. The TPW shows moderate 
moisture associated with the wave. The GOES-16 Geocolor RGB 
imagery shows the presence of the Saharan dust and dry air N of 
the wave at 15N. Isolated moderate convection is noted where the 
wave meets the ITCZ. 

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending 
from 13N45W to 03N46W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The Saharan Air 
Layer from CIMSS shows the wave has dry air and dust N of 13N. 
Isolated moderate convection is behind the wave's axis and N of 
the ITCZ from 7N-10N between 37W-45W. 

A tropical wave is just E of the Windward Islands with axis 
extending from 15N60W to 07N61W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The Saharan
Air Layer dust and dry air is N of 10N. Shallow moisture with
embedded showers is associated with the wave, and will affect the
Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean today. 

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean with axis along 82W from
10N-19N. Scattered showers and tstms are over the SW Caribbean,
likely a combination of the wave and the proximity of the Monsoon 
Through. The wave will move westward into Central America through 
Sat. 

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The tropics remain quiet for now...RTW 

ralphstropicalweather.com