Tropical Weather Discussion by NHC
042
AXNT20 KNHC 281204
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is along 25W/26W from 20N
southward. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the wave near
09N. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 05N to 19N from 30W
eastward.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/52W from 20N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 10N to 19N
between 48W and 60W.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W from 21N southward,
through the Mona Passage to Venezuela. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N to 27N between 60W and
70W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 16N to 24N between 60W
and 70W.
A tropical wave is along 88W/89W from 22N southward, from the
Yucatan Peninsula through Belize, Guatemala, and El Salvador, into
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
within 90 nm on either side of the tropical wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W, to the 1010 mb low pressure center that is along the
25W/26W tropical wave, to 09N34W and 10N40W. The ITCZ continues
from 10N40W to 11N47W and 11N51W. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are elsewhere from 20N southward from 60W eastward.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper-level trough extends from NE Florida to 23N83W. A ridge
prevails over the basin from western Florida to southern Texas.
Moist conditionally unstable air across the basin is enhancing
scattered showers. The strongest activity is north of 24N
between 86W and 92W. An upper low centered over central Cuba is
also enhancing convection over the Florida peninsula.
A surface trough will develop each evening over the
Yucatan Peninsula before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf. A
surge of moderate to fresh NE to E winds will accompany this
trough. Otherwise, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
supporting gentle to moderate winds.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. An upper low centered over central
Cuba near 20N81W, along with abundant tropical moisture, is
inducing scattered showers across Cuba. Convective activity will
gradually shift westward as the upper low tracks moves to the W.
The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough stretches
across Panama to Colombia. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are south of 14N between 79W-86W.
Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the south-
central Caribbean through Wed before diminishing. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. See the section
above for details. An upper low centered over the NW Caribbean
is enhancing convection across the western Atlantic W of 77W. A
surface trough is over Florida, and another trough was noted in
scatterometer data from 31N43W to 28N48W.
Surface high pressure will prevail through the forecast period.
For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
$$
mundell/al/mt
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Storm Investigation 5-day formation probability
479
ABNT20 KNHC 281121
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Thursday. Some development of this system is possible over the
weekend while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Avila
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Nothing for now but most of the models are suggesting development
from a strong wave that is forecast to move off the African coast
in the coming days and week. Most models suggest a re-curving
tropical cyclone over the North Atlantic. The EURO model now
suggest the same as well. Its still to early to tell, so all we can
do is monitor and be ready in case if one of the systems makes
its way further west... RTW
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/
