...SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK...

 

DAY 1-3 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

(CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS)

DAY 5 TUESDAY SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED

(SLIGHT RISK)

DAY 6 WEDNESDAY SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED

(SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK)

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

DAY 2-3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

(MARIGINAL RISK)

NATIONAL FORECAST CHART ANIMATION

...INVEST 99L REMAINS DISORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPS...

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
840 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for 
subtropical development over the central Atlantic.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A non-tropical low pressure area located about 925 miles 
east-southeast of Bermuda continues to produce an extensive area
of showers and thunderstorms.  However, the system remains 
embedded within a frontal zone, which is expected to become even 
more pronounced later today as the low begins to move 
east-northeastward at 20 to 25 mph toward colder waters and 
interacts with a mid-latitude trough.  Therefore, it is unlikely 
that the low will transition to a subtropical or tropical cyclone. 
Nevertheless, significant non-tropical development of this low is 
expected during the next couple of days, and additional information, 
including hurricane-force wind warnings, can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on 
this system.  Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will 
resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks 
will be issued as necessary during the off-season. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Brown

...SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK...

 

DAY 1-3 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

(CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS)

SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK DAY 4-8 ANIMATION

NOTE DAYS 6-7 SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS NEED TO KEEP MONITORING IN THE COMING WEEK!

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

(10%-40%)

(10%-40%)

(10%)

ANIMATED MAPS

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

...STORM INVESTIGATION 99L DEC 07, 2022...

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for 
subtropical development over the central Atlantic.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A large non-tropical area of low pressure located over the central 
subtropical Atlantic about 900 miles northeast of the northern 
Leeward Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and 
thunderstorms. This activity has become somewhat better organized 
this morning, though frontal features remain attached to the low.  
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development 
and a subtropical or tropical storm could form within the next day 
or so.  By Friday, the low will move northeastward over cooler 
waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting the chance 
for additional subtropical or tropical development of the system.  
Additional information on this low, including warnings, can be found 
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  The 
next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued 
by 9 PM EST Wednesday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Papin

 

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK...

 

STORM PREDICITION CENTER

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAYS 1

(CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS) AND (MARGINAL RISK)

DAY 1 HAIL OUTLOOK LESS THAN 5% ALL AREAS

DAY 1 TORNADO OUTLOOK

(2% RISK)

DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND OUTLOOK 

(5% RISK)

DAY 2 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

(CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS)

SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK DAY 3

(CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS)

DAY 7 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK 

(SLIGHT RISK 15%)

THUNDERSTORM OUTOOK ANIMATION

WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

(MARGINAL AND A SLIGHT RISK)

NATIONAL FORECAST CHARTS ANIMATED