...SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK...

A WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT IS TRACKING EAST FROM THE WEST COAST WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ITS PATH.  BY TUESDAY THIS SAME STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS, WILL LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS.

30% ENHANCED RISK FOR ...SHREVEPORT, LA...BOSSIER CITY, LA...MONROE, LA...ALEXANDRIA, LA...GREENVILLE, MS...

15% SLIGHT RISK FOR ...NEW ORLEANS, LA...BATON ROUGE, LA...GARLAND, TX...LITTLE ROCK, AR...JACKSON, MS...

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL WEATHER AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR UPDATES.

RTW

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

MARGINAL RISK FOR THE FOLLOWING:

...HOUSTON, TX...COLLEGE STATION, TX...SUGAR LAND, TX...THE WOODLANDS, TX...BRYAN, TX...

DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY

A 2% RISK FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

...HOUSTON, TX...COLLEGE STATION, TX...SUGAR LAND, TX...THE WOODLANDS, TX...LAKE CHARLES, LA...

DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY

A 5% RISK FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

...HOUSTON, TX...COLLEGE STATION, TX...SUGAR LAND, TX...THE WOODLANDS, TX...LAKE CHARLES, LA...

 

DAY 2 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

MARGINAL RISK FOR THE FOLLOWING:

...BATON ROUGE, LA...LAFAYETTE, LA...ALEXANDRIA, LA...OPELOUSAS, LA...SULPHUR, LA...

 

DAY 2 DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY

A 5%  FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

...BATON ROUGE, LA...LAFAYETTE, LA...LAKE CHARLES, LA...ALEXANDRIA, LA...OPELOUSAS, LA...

DAY 3 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

MARGINAL RISK FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

...FORT WORTH, TX...OKLAHOMA CITY, OK...TULSA, OK...NORMAN, OK...WICHITA FALLS, TX...

DAY 3 PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPING

A 5% FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

...FORT WORTH, TX...OKLAHOMA CITY, OK...TULSA, OK...NORMAN, OK...WICHITA FALLS, TX...

IMPORTANT SEVERE STORM PROBABILITY FOR TUESDAY DAY 4

AN ENHANCED 30% FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

SHREVEPORT, LA...BOSSIER CITY, LA...MONROE, LA...ALEXANDRIA, LA...GREENVILLE, MS...

A SLIGHT 15% RISK FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

...NEW ORLEANS, LA...BATON ROUGE, LA...GARLAND, TX...LITTLE ROCK, AR...JACKSON, MS...

SEVERE STORM FOR DAY 5 

A SLIGHT 15% RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

NEW ORLEANS, LA...MOBILE, AL...METAIRIE, LA...GULFPORT, MS...KENNER, LA...

DAY 1-5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ANIMATED)

NATIONAL FORECAST MAPS (ANIMATED)

...CHANGES TO THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY 13 AND WEDNESDAY 14...

 

STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MADE CHANGES TO ARRIVAL OF THE SEVERE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.  YESTERDAY WE WERE SEEING A SLIGHT RISK ON TUESDAY AND A SLIGHT AND ENHANCED RISK ON WEDNESDAY.  

NOW THE LATEST DAY 5-6 CALLS FOR A SLIGHT AND ENHANCED RISK FOR TUESDAY INSTEAD OF WEDNESDAY.  

DAY 5 TUESDAY ENHANCED RISK AREA:  30% Shreveport, LA...Bossier City, LA...Monroe, LA...Greenville, MS...Texarkana, TX...

DAY 5 TUESDAY SLIGHT RISK AREA: 15% Memphis, TN...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...

DAY 6 WEDNESDAY STILL HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:  15% New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...

DAYS 1-3 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

(NORMAL THUNDRSTORM CHANCE)

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FROM

(15% CHANCE)

THUNDERSTORM CATEGORIES

WEATHER PREDICITION CENTER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

DAY 1 

MARGINAL RISK NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST

DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

MARGINAL RISK, 

CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHERN TEXAS, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS

DAY 3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

MARGINAL AND A SLIGHT RISK,

SOUTHEAST CALIFONIA COAST AND INLAND AREAS.

DAY 5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

SLIGHT RISK,

FOR CENTERL AND NORTH ARAKNSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CATEGORIES

WPC NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST MAPS (ANIMATED)

...SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK...

 

DAY 1-3 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

(CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS)

DAY 5 TUESDAY SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED

(SLIGHT RISK)

DAY 6 WEDNESDAY SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED

(SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK)

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

DAY 2-3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

(MARIGINAL RISK)

NATIONAL FORECAST CHART ANIMATION

...INVEST 99L REMAINS DISORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPS...

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
840 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for 
subtropical development over the central Atlantic.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A non-tropical low pressure area located about 925 miles 
east-southeast of Bermuda continues to produce an extensive area
of showers and thunderstorms.  However, the system remains 
embedded within a frontal zone, which is expected to become even 
more pronounced later today as the low begins to move 
east-northeastward at 20 to 25 mph toward colder waters and 
interacts with a mid-latitude trough.  Therefore, it is unlikely 
that the low will transition to a subtropical or tropical cyclone. 
Nevertheless, significant non-tropical development of this low is 
expected during the next couple of days, and additional information, 
including hurricane-force wind warnings, can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on 
this system.  Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will 
resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks 
will be issued as necessary during the off-season. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Brown

...SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK...

 

DAY 1-3 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

(CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS)

SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK DAY 4-8 ANIMATION

NOTE DAYS 6-7 SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS NEED TO KEEP MONITORING IN THE COMING WEEK!

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

(10%-40%)

(10%-40%)

(10%)

ANIMATED MAPS

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK