Wednesday, June 17, 2020

RTW TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK


THE TROPICS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIT FOR NOW AS SAHARA DUST COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND IT TRACKS WEST.

THERE IS ONE STRONG WAVE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF VENEZUELA AND OVER TRINIDAD AND TABAGO.  AS THIS WAVE MOVES WESTWARD THE HEAVY RAINS ARE SPREADING INLAND, AND COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS, AND MUDSLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

RTW





...STORM INVEST 94L DROPPED OFF THE MAP...SYSTEM NEAR TRINIDAD HAS A 0% CHANCE...

INVEST 94L WAS DROPPED FROM MAP AND THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO THAT REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES. 

UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.

RTW

645 
ABNT20 KNHC 171237
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms across Trinidad and Tobago and the 
northeastern coastal sections of Venezuela are associated with a 
westward moving tropical wave.  Although upper-level winds are 
forecast to be unfavorable for further development, this system 
could produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall over these locations 
during the next day or so. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto
 

 

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

STORM INVEST 94L AND NEW INVEST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS

STORM INVESTIGATIONS

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161735
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure area located about 150 miles 
south-southeast of the North Carolina-South Carolina border 
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over 
portions of southeastern and eastern North Carolina, including the 
Outer Banks, and adjacent Atlantic waters. The low has moved little 
today, but a slow northward motion is forecast to begin by this 
evening. Environmental conditions are expected to remain 
unfavorable for significant development through tonight when the low 
should move inland over eastern North Carolina.  Regardless of 
development, heavy rainfall could occur over portions of 
northeastern South Carolina and southeastern and eastern North 
Carolina through Wednesday. For additional information, see products 
from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles east of 
Trinidad and Tobago are associated with a westward-moving tropical 
wave. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next 
couple of days before upper level winds become less conducive and 
the system begins to interact with the landmass of South America. 
Regardless of development, this system could produce gusty winds and 
heavy rainfall over Trinidad and Tobago and the northeastern 
coastal sections of Venezuela through the middle of the week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto
 

  





 

STORM INVEST 94L UPDATE

STORM INVESTIGATION

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161123
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure area located about 150 miles 
south-southeast of the North Carolina-South Carolina border is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of 
southeastern and eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks, 
and adjacent Atlantic waters. The low is moving slowly toward the 
north-northeast, and a gradual turn toward the north is forecast 
later today.  Environmental conditions are expected to remain 
unfavorable for significant development through tonight when the low 
should move inland over eastern North Carolina.  Regardless of 
development, heavy rainfall could occur over portions of 
northeastern South Carolina and southeastern and eastern North 
Carolina through Wednesday. For additional information, see products 
from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
 










 

Monday, June 15, 2020

NEW STORM INVEST AS OF 0200 PM EDT

NEW STORM INVEST ISSUED BY NHC 0200 PM EDT

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small non-tropical low pressure system located east of the Georgia 
coast is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms over 
the Atlantic waters. The low is expected to move northward overnight 
and be located offshore near the South Carolina-North Carolina 
border by Tuesday morning. Although environmental conditions are 
forecast to be unfavorable for any significant development, this 
system could briefly acquire some subtropical characteristics before 
it moves inland Tuesday afternoon or evening.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could over portions of 
northeastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina from 
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. For additional information, see 
products from your local National Weather Service office.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
 

 




 

A BRIEF RTW TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

I A M GOING TO BE BRIEF WITH THESE TROPICAL OUTLOOKS.  IF I SEE SOMETHING OF INTEREST THAT YOU MAY NEED TO HEAR ABOUT, I WILL ELABORATE FURTHER AND GIVE YOU IN DEPTH INFORMATION ABOUT WHAT I SEE.

THERE ARE 5 WAVES AT PRESENT IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN WHICH INCLUDES THE CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF.  SOME HAVE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF THE WAVE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERSION ZONE.  NONE OF THESE WAVE ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS THIS TIME.

RTW



Friday, June 12, 2020

RTW TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK


1.  A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL JUST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 17° WEST IS MOSTLY VOID OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THE ONLY PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THIS WAVES AXIS.

2. A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 35°/34° WEST HAS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  STORMS ALONG THE CENTER AND SOUTH AXIS OF THIS WAVE.  MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ (INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE)

3.  A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 47° WEST IS ALSO SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

4.  A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 62°/61° WEST HAS A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS STORMS ALONG THE CENTER AXIS OF THIS WAVE.

5.  A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 82°/81° WEST HAS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF THIS WAVE.  THIS IS ASSOCIATED A MONSOONAL TROUGH IN THIS AREA.

NONE OF THESE WAVE ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.

RTW



Thursday, June 11, 2020

STORM INVEST FORMATION CHANCE LOW 0%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of disorganized showers located about 200 miles east of the 
Windward Islands is associated with a tropical wave.  Significant 
development is not anticipated due to inhibiting environmental 
conditions while the system moves over the Windward Islands later 
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Roberts 
 
 
 

MONITORING A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA

ITS STILL TO EARLY FOR ATLANTIC STORMS BUT A NEW SMALL CLUSTER OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF AFRICA IN THE LOW LATITUDES SEEMS TO HAVE A WEAK ROTATION.  THIS CLUSTER IS WITHIN THE ITCZ (INTER-TROPICAL CONVERSION ZONE) AND IS SOUTH OF THE SAHARA DUST NOT AFFECTED BY THE DRY AIR AT THIS TIME.

THIS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE NOT YET SHOWN ON THE SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP.  NHC MAY BEGIN WATCHING THIS AREA IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER IN THE COMING DAYS.

RTW