RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...05:41PM EDT JULY 8, 2021

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS:

I HAVE REVIEWED THE AFRICAN COAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC, NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN AND ALL SEEMS QUIET FOR NOW.  A FEW WAVES TRACKING WEST.

THERE IS A NEW STORM INVEST OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH A LOW 0% FORMATION CHANCE, THROUGH 48HRS AND 5-DAYS.  THIS LOW'S CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING STRONG STORMS OFF SHORE AND ALONG THE THE COAST SINCE YESTERDAY.  

RADAR SHOWED A TORNADO WARNING EARLIER ALONG THE COAST AND THERE IS A LARGE AREA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  THERE HAS BEEN FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ISSUED TODAY.  AS LONG AS THIS LOW SITS IN THIS AREA, IT IS BEING FED BY THE WARM WATER OF THE WESTERN GULF AND TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE ALONG A PORTION OF THE TEXAS COAST.

THE HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS FROM THIS LOW EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN, CENTRAL GULF TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND THE LOUISIANA COAST IS SEEING SOME OF THE HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS OFF SHORE.  SOME CAN MAKE THEIR WAY INLAND THERE AS WELL.  NORTHERN GULF CAN'T RULE OUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SEVERE STORMS FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.

AS FOR ELSA THIS SLOW MOVING PESKY STORM IS STILL PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS OVER VIRGINIA.  A TORNADO WATCH BOX IS STILL IN EFFECT.

RTW

 

ELSA

I HOPE TO RESUME TROPICAL OUTLOOK TOMORROW

 

BEEN OUT SICK AND WENT TO DOCTOR TODAY FOR TREATMENT.  DEPENDING ON HOW I FEEL TOMORROW I WILL GIVE IT MY BEST AND UPDATE ON THE TROPICS.

THERE AND HUGH MESO-CYCLONE TYPE STORM MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ASSOCIATED A WITH  A TROPICAL WAVE AND A LOW PRESSURE SWIRL OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  NONE OF THE MODEL SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT, BUT I WILL KEEP AND EYE ON THEM BOTH.

RTW

ELSA 0500PM EDT UPDATE

 

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

...ELSA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA GULF COAST... 

 5:00 PM EDT Tue Jul 6
Location: 25.8°N 83.0°W
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

 

...ELSA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALMOST A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR CENTRAL WEST COAST...

 

AS I MENTIONED EARLY DURING THE 0800 AM ADVISORY YOU CAN'T RULE A HURRICANE AND NOW ELSA IS JUST ABOUT TO BECOME ONE AGAIN.  HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED BY NHC FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WEST COAST.

ELSA HAS TAKEN A PATH TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS MODEL RUN AND THIS IS  CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM THAT HURRICANE CHARLEY AND OTHER STORMS THAT DEVELOPED QUICKLY TRACKED OVER. 

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

2:00 PM EDT Tue Jul 6
Location: 25.4°N 83.0°W
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

Special Advisory products have been issued.  Use links below for details.

...ELSA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...

...TROPICAL STORM ELSA DRENCHING THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH FLOODING RAINS...ELSA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS FURTHER NORTH...

 

AS ELSA TRACKS NORTH THE STORM HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP A BIT WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE.  THESE FLOODING RAINS ALONG WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS HAMMERING THE FLORIDA KEYS AS WE SPEAK.  RADAR HAS BEEN INDICATING WATERSPOUTS IN SOME OF THE CELLS.  YOU CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADO IF A WATERSPOUT MAKES ITS WAY ON SHORE.

ELSA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS THE STORM TRACKS NORTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.  LAST NIGHT ELSA WAS A 58 MPH AND NOW 60 MPH STORMS, SO YOU CAN'T RULE OUT A CAT 1 STORM IF ELSA MANAGES TO ORGANIZE FURTHER.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

...ELSA JUST WEST OF KEY WEST... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...

 

...TROPICAL STORM ELSA DUMPING HEAVY RAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

 

ELSA HAS DUMPED HEAVY RAINS GUSTY WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA PROMPTING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING AN ARIEL FLOOD ADVISORY, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING AND TORNADO WARNING.  

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

5:00 PM EDT Mon Jul 5
Location: 22.7°N 81.9°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

TROPICAL STORM ELSA INTERMEDATE ADVIASORY 0200 PM EDT

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 ...ELSA MAKING LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA WHILE BRINGING FLOODING RAINS... 

2:00 PM EDT Mon Jul 5
Location: 22.2°N 81.6°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

 

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National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather