RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE 01:08AM EDT JULY 14, 2021

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS

GULF OF MEXICO

NOTHING GOING ON IN THE GULF AT THIS TIME.

CARIBBEAN 

A STRONG WAVE PUSHING WEST STILL ENHANCING STORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN WAVES AXIS AND THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN AND EXTENDS SOUTH OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF.  THIS WAVE IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS REGION.

NORTH ATLANTIC 

THERE IS A NEW INVESTIGATION IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH A 10% CHANCE FOR FORMATION THROUGH 48 HRS AND 5-DAYS.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND AFRICA COAST

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING 56°-55° WEST IS INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA.

AFRICA HAS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS INLAND MORE THAN LIKELY A NEW WAVE THAT IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS REGION.

A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALONG THE WAVES AXIS.

RTW

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE 0335AM EDT... JULY 13, 2021

 

JUST TO LET YOU WHY THE DELAY UPDATES.  I AM ON VACATION CELEBRATING MY BIRTHDAY THIS WEEK AND MY DAUGHTERS BIRTHDAY ON THE 19TH.  THANK GOD AND ALL YOUR PRAYERS I AM GRADUALLY FEELING BETTER.  SO HERE IS THE LATEST UPDATE THIS MORNING.

GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA

• THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS TO SURFACE TROUGH ONE OFF THE MEXICO SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST, AND THE OTHER IS NEAR THE NORTHEAST GULF.  BOTH OF THESE TROUGHS ARE ENHANCING SHOWER AND STORMS ACTIVITY.

• FLORIDA: THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND PROMPTED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS YESTERDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON HAS MOVED NORTH OVER THE CAROLINA'S.

CARIBBEAN

• THE CARIBBEAN HAS A LARGE WAVE WITH A LONG AXIS THAT EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL CUBA SOUTH OVER WESTERN COLOMBIAN COAST.

• THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING STORMS NORTH OF CUBA AND OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA AS THE THE SOUTHERN AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS REGION.

• THERE ARE ALSO SOME STRONG TO NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER AND NORTH OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

NORTH ATLANTIC

• ALL IS QUIET IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND AFRICAN COAST

• CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS TWO WAVE ONE NEARING SOUTH AMERICA AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS.

• THESE WAVES HAS SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM AND ITS MAINLY DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS REGION.

THE TROPICS ARE QUIET FOR NOW.

RTW

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JULY 11, 2021

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS:

GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA

GULF REMAINS QUIET AT THIS TIME.  FLORIDA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER LOW THAT IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND STORMS.  SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE HEAVY AT TIME WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

CARIBBEAN HAS TWO TROPICAL WAVES TRACKING WEST. 

WAVE # 1 IS NEAR 82° WEST AND IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS REGION.

WAVE # 2 IS NEAR 61° WEST  AND IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE EAST CARIBBEAN AND GREATER ANTILLES.

NORTH ATLANTIC

NORTH ATLANTIC REMAINS QUIET AT THIS TIME.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND AFRICAN COAST

CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS TWO WAVES, WAVE #3 IS NEAR 43° WEST AND 42° WEST THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.

WAVE #4 IS NEAR 28° AND 26° WEST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT EXTEND TO THE AFRICAN COAST MAINLY INTERACTION WITH MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS REGION. 

THE AFRICAN COAST AND INLAND HAS STRONG TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THERE IS A STRONG WAVE ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE COAST INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS REGION.

RTW

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JULY 10 2021 1055 PM EDT

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS:

GULF OF MEXICO

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE GULF AND SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER FLORIDA BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL LOW.

CARIBBEAN 

QUIET WITH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MONSOON REGION.

NORTH ATLANTIC 

HAS AN INVEST BUT I AM NOT WATCHING IT.  IT IS HEADED NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND AFRICAN COAST

TROPICAL WAVES ONE LARGE WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THIS WAVE COULD ENHANCE RAIN AND STORM CHANCE FOR A PORTION OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK IF IT REMAINS THIS LARGE.  ANOTHER SMALLER IN SIZE IS TRACKING WEST IN THE LOWER LATITUDES.

AFRICAN COAST 

SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION.

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME.

RTW

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS:

GULF OF MEXICO

THE GULF IS QUIET FOR NOW.  THERE IS STILL HEAVY TO MODERATE RAINS AND STORM THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES AND OVER FLORIDA.  

THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS IS PRODUCING HAVE RAINS INLAND WITH FLASH FLOODS.  NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE GULF FOR NOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA 

THE CARIBBEAN IS ALSO QUIET WITH SOME THE USUAL MONSOON HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS INTERACTION WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVES

THERE TWO WAVES IN THE CARIBBEAN FIRST 1 IS OVER NICARAGUA AND EXTEND INTO THE EAST PACIFIC.  THAT HAS EXIT THE CARIBBEAN AND WILL BE MONITORED IN THE EAST PACIFIC.

THE SECOND WAVE IS OVER COLUMBIA AND IS NO CONCERNS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.

NORTH, CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND AFRICAN COAST

THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS QUIET AS WELL FOR NOW.  THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS QUIET DOWN CONSIDERABLY FOR NOW AS WELL WITH TWO WAVES.

ONE OF THESE WAVES HAS A LARGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS NORTH A SOUTH BETWEEN 5° NORTH AND 24° NORTH AND ALONG 46° WEST THE CENTER AXIS AND BENDS BACK TO 45° WEST NORTH AXIS.  THIS WAVE IS RAIN AND STORM FREE AT THIS TIME.  MOVING THROUGH DRY SAHARA AIR AND DUST..

THE OTHER WAVE HAS A SHORT AXIS AND IS NEAR 32° AND 30° WEST.  SOME MODERATE SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE.  THERE IS NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.

RTW

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...05:41PM EDT JULY 8, 2021

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS:

I HAVE REVIEWED THE AFRICAN COAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC, NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN AND ALL SEEMS QUIET FOR NOW.  A FEW WAVES TRACKING WEST.

THERE IS A NEW STORM INVEST OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH A LOW 0% FORMATION CHANCE, THROUGH 48HRS AND 5-DAYS.  THIS LOW'S CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING STRONG STORMS OFF SHORE AND ALONG THE THE COAST SINCE YESTERDAY.  

RADAR SHOWED A TORNADO WARNING EARLIER ALONG THE COAST AND THERE IS A LARGE AREA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  THERE HAS BEEN FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ISSUED TODAY.  AS LONG AS THIS LOW SITS IN THIS AREA, IT IS BEING FED BY THE WARM WATER OF THE WESTERN GULF AND TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE ALONG A PORTION OF THE TEXAS COAST.

THE HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS FROM THIS LOW EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN, CENTRAL GULF TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND THE LOUISIANA COAST IS SEEING SOME OF THE HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS OFF SHORE.  SOME CAN MAKE THEIR WAY INLAND THERE AS WELL.  NORTHERN GULF CAN'T RULE OUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SEVERE STORMS FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.

AS FOR ELSA THIS SLOW MOVING PESKY STORM IS STILL PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS OVER VIRGINIA.  A TORNADO WATCH BOX IS STILL IN EFFECT.

RTW

 

ELSA

I HOPE TO RESUME TROPICAL OUTLOOK TOMORROW

 

BEEN OUT SICK AND WENT TO DOCTOR TODAY FOR TREATMENT.  DEPENDING ON HOW I FEEL TOMORROW I WILL GIVE IT MY BEST AND UPDATE ON THE TROPICS.

THERE AND HUGH MESO-CYCLONE TYPE STORM MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ASSOCIATED A WITH  A TROPICAL WAVE AND A LOW PRESSURE SWIRL OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  NONE OF THE MODEL SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT, BUT I WILL KEEP AND EYE ON THEM BOTH.

RTW

ELSA 0500PM EDT UPDATE

 

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

...ELSA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA GULF COAST... 

 5:00 PM EDT Tue Jul 6
Location: 25.8°N 83.0°W
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

 

...ELSA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALMOST A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR CENTRAL WEST COAST...

 

AS I MENTIONED EARLY DURING THE 0800 AM ADVISORY YOU CAN'T RULE A HURRICANE AND NOW ELSA IS JUST ABOUT TO BECOME ONE AGAIN.  HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED BY NHC FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WEST COAST.

ELSA HAS TAKEN A PATH TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS MODEL RUN AND THIS IS  CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM THAT HURRICANE CHARLEY AND OTHER STORMS THAT DEVELOPED QUICKLY TRACKED OVER. 

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

2:00 PM EDT Tue Jul 6
Location: 25.4°N 83.0°W
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

Special Advisory products have been issued.  Use links below for details.

...ELSA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...