FRED TOOK A BEATEN OVER DOMINICAN...NOW TRACKING NORTH OF DUE WEST AS OF THE 0800 AM EDT ADVISORY. THIS IS MORE THAN LIKELY TEMPORARY, BUT IF FRED TRACKING CONTINUES NORTH OF DUE WEST, THEN NHC WILL HAVE TO ADJUST TRACK TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS. WATER TEMPS ARE STILL WARM AROUND THE WEST BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS, SO WE HAVE TO MONITOR FRED CLOSELY AS IT TRACKS OVER THE WARM WATERS.
STORM SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY DISORGANIZED WITH THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER DOMINICAN. AS LONG AS THIS PERSIST STRENGTHENING WOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME. A VOID CENTER OF CIRCULATION WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT A HEALTHY TROPICAL SYSTEM.
AS OF 11 AM UPDATE AIR FORCE RECON PLAN DID NOT FIND FRED ANY BETTER ORGANIZED. CENTER IS STILL VOID OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. INTENSITY MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING A HURRICANE AT THIS TIME. A LOWER LEVEL TROPICAL STORM. PLEASE NOTE THAT INTENSITY IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST AND THERE COULD BE ERROR IN THE FORECASTING OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER, AS IT LOOKS NOW A LOWER LEVEL TROPICAL STORM IS POSSIBLE. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND REMEMBER TO ALWAYS BE STORM READY!
RTW
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT FRED REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...
11:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 12
Location:
20.9°N 74.4°W
Moving:
WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure:
1013 mb
Max sustained:
35 mph
