...FRED HUGGING THE NORTHERN CUBAN COAST STRUGGLING T0 STRENGTHEN...

 FRED HUGGING THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA STRUGGLING TO STRENGTHEN.  THIS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST, DRY AIR IN THE AREA AND WIND SHEAR FROM A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR THIS STORM TO BENEFIT FROM THE VERY WARMS WATERS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

SEEMS LIKE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS DIPPED FURTHER SOUTH SHOVING FRED FURTHER SOUTH OVER CUBA.  SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPEN TO MAJOR HURRICANE IRMA.  ANYHOW FRED IS STILL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM CUBA AND TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN GULF.

RTW

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...CENTER OF FRED MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...

---

11:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 13
Location: 22.3°N 78.4°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

 

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO CENTER...PROXIMITY TO NORTHERN CUBAN COAST HINDERING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...FRED CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

---

5:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 12
Location: 21.3°N 75.3°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

 

STORM INVEST 95L GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED

 

INVEST 95L NOW HAS A MED 60% FOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 48 HOURS AND A HIGH 70% CHANCE WITHIN 5-DAYS.

• THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN DRY AIR BUT SEEMS TO BE HOLDING TO ITS MOISTURE AS IT TRACKS WEST.

• THIS AREA HAS NO WESTERLY WIND SHEAR TO BLOW THE COLD CLOUD TOPS AWAY FOR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION, SO CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER LEVELS ARE GOOD FOR DEVELOPMENT AT HIS TIME.

• SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE WARM, SO ENVIRONMENTALLY IT LOOKS GOOD FOR DEVELOPMENT ACCEPT FOR THE DRY AIR.

RTW

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE INVEST 95L

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121144
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Fred, located about 40 miles west-southwest of Great 
Inagua, Bahamas.

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a 
tropical wave located about 1400 miles east of the Lesser 
Antilles.  Environmental conditions are expected to gradually 
become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression 
could form by early next week while the system moves generally 
westward at about 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic.  This system 
is expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands late Saturday 
or early Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

...FRED TOOK A BEATEN OVER DOMINICAN...NOW TRACKING NORTH OF DUE WEST AS OF THE 08:00 AM EDT ADVISORY... AS OF 11 AM EDT FRED STILL DISORGANIZED...

 

FRED TOOK A BEATEN OVER DOMINICAN...NOW TRACKING NORTH OF DUE WEST AS OF THE 0800 AM EDT ADVISORY.  THIS IS MORE THAN LIKELY TEMPORARY, BUT IF FRED TRACKING CONTINUES NORTH OF DUE WEST, THEN NHC WILL HAVE TO ADJUST TRACK TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS.  WATER TEMPS ARE STILL WARM AROUND THE WEST BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS, SO WE HAVE TO MONITOR FRED CLOSELY AS IT TRACKS OVER THE WARM WATERS.

STORM SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY DISORGANIZED WITH THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER DOMINICAN.  AS LONG AS THIS PERSIST STRENGTHENING WOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME.  A VOID CENTER OF CIRCULATION WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT A HEALTHY TROPICAL SYSTEM. 

AS OF 11 AM UPDATE AIR FORCE RECON PLAN DID NOT FIND FRED ANY BETTER ORGANIZED.  CENTER IS STILL VOID OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.  INTENSITY MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING A HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.  A LOWER LEVEL TROPICAL STORM.  PLEASE NOTE THAT INTENSITY IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST AND THERE COULD BE ERROR IN THE FORECASTING OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.  HOWEVER, AS IT LOOKS NOW A LOWER LEVEL TROPICAL STORM IS POSSIBLE.  WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND REMEMBER TO ALWAYS BE STORM READY!

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT FRED REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...

---

11:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 12
Location: 20.9°N 74.4°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph