...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...FORECAST TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY...

 

...CENTER OF FRED MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...

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11:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 13
Location: 22.3°N 78.4°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

 

...FRED HUGGING THE NORTHERN CUBAN COAST STRUGGLING T0 STRENGTHEN...

 FRED HUGGING THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA STRUGGLING TO STRENGTHEN.  THIS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST, DRY AIR IN THE AREA AND WIND SHEAR FROM A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR THIS STORM TO BENEFIT FROM THE VERY WARMS WATERS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

SEEMS LIKE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS DIPPED FURTHER SOUTH SHOVING FRED FURTHER SOUTH OVER CUBA.  SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPEN TO MAJOR HURRICANE IRMA.  ANYHOW FRED IS STILL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM CUBA AND TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN GULF.

RTW

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...CENTER OF FRED MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...

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11:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 13
Location: 22.3°N 78.4°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

 

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO CENTER...PROXIMITY TO NORTHERN CUBAN COAST HINDERING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...FRED CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

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5:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 12
Location: 21.3°N 75.3°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

 

STORM INVEST 95L GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED

 

INVEST 95L NOW HAS A MED 60% FOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 48 HOURS AND A HIGH 70% CHANCE WITHIN 5-DAYS.

• THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN DRY AIR BUT SEEMS TO BE HOLDING TO ITS MOISTURE AS IT TRACKS WEST.

• THIS AREA HAS NO WESTERLY WIND SHEAR TO BLOW THE COLD CLOUD TOPS AWAY FOR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION, SO CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER LEVELS ARE GOOD FOR DEVELOPMENT AT HIS TIME.

• SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE WARM, SO ENVIRONMENTALLY IT LOOKS GOOD FOR DEVELOPMENT ACCEPT FOR THE DRY AIR.

RTW