...IDA WILL BE MOVING OVER A VERY WARM LOOP CURRENT THAT WILL FUEL IDA INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...

 IDA TRACKING OVER A VERY WARM LOOP CURRENT AND THIS WILL HELP THE STORM RAPIDLY INTENSIFY.  OCEAN TEMPERATURE MAPS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI SHOW THESE WARM OCEAN TEMPS A DEPTH THAT THE UP WELLING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CANNOT AFFECT.  

AS THESE STORMS TRACK ACROSS THE OCEAN THEY TEND TO UP WELL (BRING UP) COOLER OCEAN WATER FROM THE DEPTH, AND THIS COOLS THE SURFACE OF THE OCEAN.  IN THIS CASE THIS LOOP CURRENT OR WARM WATER EDDY IS A SMALL POCKET WHERE THE COOL WATER HAS BEEN REPLACED BY VERY WARM OCEAN WATER THUS MAKING IT VERY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  SOME GOOD NEWS IS THAT AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE COAST WATER IS SHALLOW AND CAN COOL RATHER QUICKLY.  

HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND PREPARE QUICKLY BECAUSE SUNDAY MORNING IDA ARRIVES ALONG THE COAST.  REMEMBER IF TOLD TO EVACUATE, DO SO AND DON'T STAY BEHIND, WATER WILL RISE QUICKLY.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...IDA NOW ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

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11:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 27
Location: 23.0°N 84.0°W
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

 

LOOP CURRENT

DEEP WARM WATER

...IDA CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AS IT TRACKS CLOSER TO CUBA...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS IDA TRACKS TOWARD THE NORTH GULF COAST...

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...CENTER OF IDA APPROACHING WESTERN CUBA... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

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5:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 27
Location: 22.1°N 83.2°W
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

 

MODEL TREND

...IDA MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE ISLAND OF YOUTH AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...NEXT STOP WESTERN CUBA...

 

IDA CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTHEN AND MAKES LANDFALL AS A CAT 1 OVER THE ISLAND OF YOUTH.  WATERS OVER THE GULF WILL HELP IDA TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS TRACKS NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTH GULF COAST.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...IDA MAKES LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE ON THE ISLE OF YOUTH...

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2:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 27
Location: 21.6°N 82.7°W
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

 

...IDA STRENGTHENING AS SHE HEADS TOWARD ISLANDS OF YOUTH AND WESTERN CUBA...COULD BECOME HURRICANE AT ANYTIME...

 

IDA STRENGTHENING AS SHE MOVES OVER WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER WESTERN CUBA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT FOR A LANDFALL OVER LOUISIANA.  WHAT'S CONCERNING ARE THE VERY WARM WATERS SOUTH OF LOUISIANA THAT ARE PERFECT FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IDA MAKES LANDFALL SUNDAY MORNING.  RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA AND BEGIN PREPARATIONS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MAJOR HURRICANE IDA. 

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

...IDA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND WESTERN CUBA...

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11:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 27
Location: 20.7°N 82.1°W
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph