..DAY 2 SATURDAY SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK AND PROBABILITIES..

 

TOMORROWS SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS:

ENHANCED RISK: Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Columbia, MO...Bossier City, LA...North Little Rock, AR...

SLIGHT RISK: Memphis, TN...St. Louis, MO...Jackson, MS...Springfield, MO...Springfield, IL...

MARGINAL RISK: Houston, TX...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR TORNADO:

5% PROBABILITY: Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Columbia, MO...Bossier City, LA...North Little Rock, AR...

2% PROBABILITY: Memphis, TN...New Orleans, LA...St. Louis, MO...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND:

30% PROBABILITY: Little Rock, AR...Columbia, MO...North Little Rock, AR...Jonesboro, AR...Pine Bluff, AR...

15% PROBABILITY: Memphis, TN...St. Louis, MO...Shreveport, LA...Jackson, MS...Springfield, MO...

5% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND:

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Columbia, MO...Longview, TX...

30% PROBABILITY: Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Columbia, MO...Bossier City, LA...North Little Rock, AR...

15% PROBABILITY: Memphis, TN...St. Louis, MO...Jackson, MS...Springfield, MO...Springfield, IL...

5% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...

..SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL..

 

KANSAS HAS A SEVERE WEATHER SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  SO FAR THERE IS LESS THAN A 2% RISK FOR TORNADO PER STORM PREDICITION CENTER.  HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND DAMAGING HAIL.

RTW

THE FOLLOWING AREA ARE IN THE RISK AREAS FOR SEVERE STORMS:

SLIGHT RISK: Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...

MARGINAL RISK: Charlotte, NC...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...

THE FOLLOWING AREA ARE IN THE RISK AREAS FOR DAMAGING WINDS:

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Lincoln, NE...Salina, KS...Hutchinson, KS...Junction City, KS...Great Bend, KS...

Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...

Charlotte, NC...Kansas City, MO...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...

THE FOLLOWING AREA ARE IN THE RISK AREAS FOR DAMAGING HAIL:

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Salina, KS...Hutchinson, KS...Great Bend, KS...

Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...Hutchinson, KS...

Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...

NATIOANL FORECAST CHARTS

..SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPGRADED SO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TODAY..

 

TODAY SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPGRADED BY THE STORM PREDICITION CENTER.  ENHANCE, AN A SLIGHT RISK.  STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FROM SPC, LOCAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST.

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY:

ENHANCED RISK: Albany, GA...Valdosta, GA...Thomasville, GA...Americus, GA...Tifton, GA...

SLIGHT RISK: Jacksonville, FL...Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...

MARGINAL RISK: Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Orlando, FL...Amarillo, TX...Hollywood, FL...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY:

10% PROBABILITY: Albany, GA...Valdosta, GA...Thomasville, GA...Americus, GA...Tifton, GA...

5% PROBABILITY: Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Dothan, AL...Warner Robins, GA...Auburn, AL...

2% PROBABILITY: Jacksonville, FL...Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Hialeah, FL...Orlando, FL...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK OF THUNDERSTORM DAMAGING WINDS TODAY:

15% PROBABILITY: Jacksonville, FL...Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...

5% PROBABILITY: Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Orlando, FL...Amarillo, TX...Gainesville, FL...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK OF HAIL TODAY:

5% PROBABILITY: Jacksonville, FL...Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 133
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   540 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southeast Alabama
     Florida Panhandle
     Southwest Georgia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 540 AM until
     100 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms will gradually move northward from
   the Gulf of Mexico into the Florida Panhandle and parts of southeast
   Alabama and southwest Georgia.  A couple of tornadoes are possible
   with the more intense supercell thunderstorms.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 15 miles southwest of Crestview FL to
   20 miles east of Tallahassee FL. For a complete depiction of the
   watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
   storm motion vector 14535.

   ...Smith

EXCESSIVE RAINDALL OUTLOOK:

 A BIT OF GOOD NEWS FLORIDA IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR DAYS 2-3 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.   

TODAY

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

THIS GULF LOW WILL CAUSE FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER PROBLEMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NATIONAL FORECAST MAP!

..SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK..

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY.

MARGINAL RISK: Mobile, AL...Pensacola, FL...Panama City, FL...Ferry Pass, FL...Prichard, AL...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADO TODAY.

2% PROBABILITY: Mobile, AL...Pensacola, FL...Panama City, FL...Ferry Pass, FL...Prichard, AL...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS TODAY.

5% PROBABILITY; Mobile, AL...Pensacola, FL...Panama City, FL...Ferry Pass, FL...Prichard, AL...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK DAY 1-4

SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR A SMALL AREA ALONG TO THE COAST OF BROWARD TO SOUTH MIAMI DADE.  MARGINAL RISK FOR THOSE AREAS IN THE GREEN. 

DAYS 1-3 (WED-SUN) RAINFALL OUTLOOK

FRONT ANALYSIS CHARTS

NATIONAL FORECAST CHARTS