..TODAYS SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK AND RAIN AND STORM CHANCE FOR FLORIDA..

TODAYS THERE IS A SLIGHT/MARGINAL CHANCE FOR A LARGE AREA  FROM FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHWARD.  REFER TO AREAS AT RISK ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICITION CENTER.

SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK AREAS AT RISK:

• SLIGHT RISK: San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Waco, TX...

• MARGINAL RISK: Dallas, TX...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...Wichita, KS...Plano, TX...

TORNADOO PROBABILITY AREAS AREAS AT RISK:

• 2% PROBABILITY: Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Edmond, OK...

DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY RISK AREAS:

• 5% PROBABILITY: San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...

DAMAGING HAIL PROBABILITY RISK AREAS:

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Killeen, TX...Round Rock, TX...Cedar Park, TX...

• 15% PROBABILITY: San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Waco, TX...

• 5% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...Wichita, KS...Plano, TX...

NATIONAL FORECAST CHARTS COURTESY OF WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER.

LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS FOR FLORIDA WILL BE SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  SATURDAY IS NOT LOOKING TO BAD THERE IS A CHANCE, BUT NOT A WASHOUT.

FRONT ANALYSIS CHARTS COURTESY OF WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER.

A DRY COLD FRONT FINALLY CLEARED FLORIDA AND THIS MORNING IT WAS COOL AND PLEASANT.  HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF IS IN CONTROL FOR NOW.  THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND THEN A TROUGH FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL SETTLE IN ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ENHANCING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.

..TOMORROWS SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND FLORIDA'S SHOWER AND STORM OUTLOOK..

 

THERE IS A SLIGHT TO MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TEXAS, OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.  

MAKE SURE YOU STAY UP TO DATE WITH STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.  

• THERE IS A 2% PROBABILITY FOR TORNADO IN NORTHERN TEXAS NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA.

• THERE IS A CHANCE FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS FROM TEXAS NORTH TO SOUTHERN KANSAS.

• THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR A PORTION OF TEXAS AND A 15% CHANCE FROM TEXAS NORTH TO SOUTHERN KANSAS.  

REFER TO THE GRAPHS BELOW OR VISIT SPC FOR THE LATEST.

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY: 

SLIGHT RISK: Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...

MARGINAL RISK: San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...

THE FOLLOWING AREA HAS A 2% PROBABILITY FOR A TORNADO ON THURSDAY:

• 2% PROBABILITY: Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...

THE FOLLOWING AREA HAS A RISK FOR DAMAGING HAIL ON THURSDAY:

• SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Abilene, TX...San Angelo, TX...Del Rio, TX...Eagle Pass, TX...Kerrville, TX...

• 15% PROBABILITY: Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...

• 5% PROBABILITY: San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...

THE FOLLOWING AREA HAS A RISK FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS ON THURSDAY:

• 15% PROBABILITY: Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...

• 5% PROBABILITY: San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...

NATIONAL FORECAST CHART COURTESY OF WEATHER PREDICITION CENTER.

• A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF SHORE OUR EAST COAST HERE IN FLORIDA.  THIS TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED WEST ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC.  THIS WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  

• FRONT ANALYSIS CHARTS WILL SHOW THE FRONT CLEARING FLORIDA ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO SETTLE IN ALONG OUR COAST.

..LOOKING AT TODAYS SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK AND AHEAD TO THURSDAYS..

 

TODAYS OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG WESTERN TEXAS.

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT RISK: Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Hobbs, NM...West Odessa, TX...

MARGINAL RISK: Amarillo, TX...Clovis, NM...Big Spring, TX...Plainview, TX...Hereford, TX...

HAIL PROBABILITY OF TODAY:

5% PROBABILITY: Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Clovis, NM...

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGING WINDS:

15% PROBABILITY: Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Hobbs, NM...West Odessa, TX...

5% PROBABILITY: Amarillo, TX...Clovis, NM...Big Spring, TX...Plainview, TX...Hereford, TX...

THERE IS A SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY FROM SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS, CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL KANSAS.   FOLLOW STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES:

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS:

SLIGHT RISK: Oklahoma City, OK...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...

MARGINAL RISK: San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Tulsa, OK...

PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS:

15% PROBABILITY: Oklahoma City, OK...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...

5% PROBABILITY: San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Tulsa, OK...

NATIONAL FORECAST MAP COURTESY OF WEATHER PREDICITION CENTER.

FRONT ANALYSIS CHARTS COURTESY OF WEATHER PREDICITION CENTER.

NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINS AND STORMS IN FLORIDA WILL BE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MAY 1 2023 COURTESY OF STORM PREDICTION CENTER..

 

AFTER A STORMY CONDITION THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND PAST FEW DAYS WE ARE SEEING A BREAK IN SEVERE WEATHER. 

SEVERAL GULF LOWS/ MESOSCALE TYPE SYSTEMS CAUSED HAVOC AS THEY TRACKED EAST ACROSS OVER TEXAS AND OTHER STATES PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.  

FLORIDA HAD THEIR SHARE OF SEVERE STORMS AS THESE SYSTEM MADE THEIR WAY ACROSS FLORIDA PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN FORT LAUDERDALE, TO GULF BALL SIZE HAIL IN CENTRAL FLORIDA, TORNADO DAMAGE IN THE PANHANDLE AND SATURDAY'S APRIL 29, 2023 EF-2 WHICH CAUSED CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE IN WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA.  

FLORIDA RANKS NUMBER THREE IN TORNADOS AND NOW THAT WE ARE IN AN EL NINO WE GET TO SEE MORE OF THESE STRONG FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND OVER FLORIDA.  

THESE PREFRONT SQUALL LINES USUALLY SPLIT UP INTO SMALLER CELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP SUPERCELLS AND DROP LARGE HAIL, HEAVY FLOODING RAINS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND ISOLATED TORNADOS. 

NEXT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TEXAS AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST COULD PRODUCE MORE SEVERE STORMS. 

REMEMBER ALWAYS BE PREPARED! 

RTW

BELOW IS TODAYS SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK COURTESY OF STORM PREDICTION CENTER: 

MARGINALRISK FOR: Fernley, NV...Winnemucca, NV...

DAY 1 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGING WINDS:

5% PROBABILITY FOR: Fernley, NV...Winnemucca, NV...

DAY 4 OUTLOOK A 15% PROBABILITY:

NATIONAL FORECAST CHARTS COURTESY OF WEATHER PREDICITION CENTER.

FRONT ANALYSIS CHARTS COURTESY OF  WEATHER PREDICITION CENTER.

..FRIDAY SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK, ENHANCED/SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK..

 

STORM PREDICITION CENTER SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ENHANCED/SLIGHT TO A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVR TEXAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADO, SIGNIFICANT SEVERE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL, AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGING WINDS.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, AND LOCAL MEDIA.

RTW

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY:

ENHANCED RISK: San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...

SLIGHT RISK: Houston, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Pasadena, TX...

MARGINAL RISK: Jacksonville, FL...Charlotte, NC...Miami, FL...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR TORNADO TODAY:

5% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

2% PROBABILITY: San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Laredo, TX...Denton, TX...Tyler, TX...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM DAMAGING WINDS TODAY:

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...

30% PROBABILITY: San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...

15% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...Laredo, TX...

5% PROBABILITY: Jacksonville, FL...Charlotte, NC...Miami, FL...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR DAMAGING HAIL TODAY:

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...

30% PROBABILITY: San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...

15% PROBABILITY: Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...College Station, TX...Longview, TX...

5% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...Jacksonville, FL...Charlotte, NC...Miami, FL...Raleigh, NC...

..THURSDAY SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK.. ..SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS..

 

HERE IS STORM PREDICTION CENTER SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS:

SLIGHT RISK: Jacksonville, FL...Memphis, TN...New Orleans, LA...Corpus Christi, TX...Orlando, FL...

MARGINAL RISK: Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR TORNADO:

5% PROBABILITY: New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...

2% PROBABILITY: Jacksonville, FL...Memphis, TN...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Baton Rouge, LA...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS:

15% PROBABILITY: Jacksonville, FL...New Orleans, LA...Corpus Christi, TX...Orlando, FL...Mobile, AL...

5% PROBABILITY: Memphis, TN...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR DAMAGING HAIL:

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Corpus Christi, TX...Brownsville, TX...Harlingen, TX...Mission, TX...Pharr, TX...

15% PROBABILITY: Jacksonville, FL...Memphis, TN...Corpus Christi, TX...Orlando, FL...Brownsville, TX...

5% PROBABILITY: New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...

..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR A LARGE AREA OF FLORIDA FOR TODAY...

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 168
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   210 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     The Florida Peninsula
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 210 PM
     until 900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 3 inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
   intensity this afternoon, while posing a threat for very large hail
   and damaging winds.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
   statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east of
   Gainesville FL to 10 miles south southwest of Miami FL. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
   29020.

   ...Gleason/Hart

000
FLUS42 KMFL 261312
HWOMFL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
912 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
271315-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
912 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023

...Severe Thunderstorms Possible Today...
...Localized Flooding Possible Over East Coast...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic, Biscayne Bay, South
Florida, Gulf of Mexico and Lake Okeechobee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible
today across South Florida. The strongest storms could contain
strong gusty winds, hail, and heavy downpours.

Wind: Severe wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible within the
strongest storms that develop today.

Hail: Hail up to golf ball size will be possible with the strongest
severe thunderstorms that develop today.

Tornado: Funnel clouds or a brief tornado will be possible in
association with thunderstorm activity today.

Excessive Rainfall: Localized flooding and ponding of roadways will
be possible in association with thunderstorm activity today.

Waterspouts: A few waterspouts may develop over the Atlantic waters
as well as Lake Okeechobee through today.

Rip Currents: An elevated risk for rip currents exists along coastal
Palm Beach County.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible through the remainder of
the week. A few storms may become strong to marginally severe in
nature; however coverage and intensity will diminish compared to
prior days. The strongest storms could contain heavy downpours,
hail,and gusty winds. Flooding from excessive rainfall will also be
a concern through the week.

An elevated rip current risk will develop by the middle of this
week, particularly for coastal Palm Beach where a high risk for rip
currents may be warranted.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

CENTRAL FLORIDA

1139 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. .THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... Severe storms are expected today, with the Storm Prediction Center highlighting much of east central Florida in an Enhanced Risk. Convection is expected to begin along the coast through early afternoon, as the sea breeze develops. Then, activity will spread inland through the afternoon, with a sea breeze collision over the interior helping to further enhance any storms. Storms are expected to move southeast at around 10 to 15 mph. Main threats today will be hail one to two inches in diameter or larger, gusty to locally damaging winds up to around 60 mph, and frequent lightning strikes. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Locally heavy rainfall up to around 2 inches could produce ponding on roadways or in low-lying or poor drainage areas. .RIP CURRENT IMPACT... A Moderate risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at area beaches. Check with the local beach patrol for additional information about ocean hazards and always heed the advice of lifeguards. Swim only within sight of a lifeguard and never enter the ocean alone. .MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT... Strong to severe storms are expected to impact inland lakes and the Intracoastal Waterway, and possibly even the nearshore Atlantic waters through the afternoon. Storms are expected to move southeast at around 10 to 15 knots. Main threats will be hail one to two inches in diameter or larger, gusty winds up to around 50 to 55 knots, and frequent lightning strikes. .WATERSPOUT IMPACT... Storms containing brief funnel cloud spinups or waterspouts will be possible within coastal areas, especially into early afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Storms will be present daily through at least the the weekend. A few strong to severe storms will once again be possible on Friday. Main threats will be wind gusts and hail. Ponding water will be an increasing hazard through this period, as rounds of rainfall accumulate each day. At least a moderate risk of rip currents looks to continue through the weekend. Poor boating conditions will be possible this weekend, especially on Sunday, as southerly to southeasterly winds increase. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed. $$ Schaper/Leahy