..MONITORING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR DEVELOPMENT 10/09/2023..

NHC is monitoring the BOC (Bay of Campeche) for tropical cyclone formation.  at this time there is a low chance for development within 48 hrs. and 7 days.  You can see some of the models suggesting low pressure and disorganized and showers and storms tracking across the northern Gulf and the Florida Pan Handle.  

See below post from NHC.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091737
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A low-latitude tropical wave located several hundred miles 
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a 
large area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has become a 
bit more concentrated this afternoon, and environmental conditions 
appear conducive for additional development of this system during 
the next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form in 
the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward or 
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization 
in association with a small area of low pressure over the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear only 
marginally favorable for some additional development while the 
system moves slowly northward before the low merges with a frontal 
system over the western Gulf of Mexico by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

..MONITORING THE EAST PACIFIC SYSTEMS OCT 10, 2023..

 

You are probably wondering why I am monitoring the East Pacific storm systems. Some of the models are hinting that the remnant low from one of these systems could get caught up in the sub-tropical jet flowing over the Gulf of Mexico and develop some as it tracks across the northern Gulf. So as it is right now, we watch and monitor. This is for midweek if it does move into the Gulf.

RTW

..PHILIPPE ALMOST EXTRA-TROPICAL OCT. 6, 2023

...PHILIPPE BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON BERMUDA...

8:00 AM AST Fri Oct 6 Location: 29.9°N 64.9°W Moving: NNE at 18 mph Min pressure: 1003 mb Max sustained: 50 mph

..PHILIPPE WILL BE MOVING INTO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT..

 

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND PHILIPPE A LITTLE STRONGER BUT STILL IN A STATE OF DISORGANIZATION...

8:00 AM AST Thu Oct 5 Location: 24.9°N 66.3°W Moving: N at 10 mph Min pressure: 1005 mb Max sustained: 45 mph

I hope this track to the left over Canada will bring plenty of precipitation, so it can put out those fires that have been ongoing for a few months now.

Philippe will be moving through unfavorable upper level environment. in the coming days.