..TAMMY 11 AM UPDATE 0CT. 23, 2023..

 

STRONG HIGH WILL HELP STEER A WEAK TAMMY BACK TO THE WEST.  HOWEVER, SOME MODELS SHOW A TEMPORARY TRACK TO THE WEST AND THEN A BRIEF TURN BACK TO THE EAST.  UNCERTAIN FUTURE FOR TAMMY BUT SOME MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKER TAMMY IN THE COMING DAYS.  I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TAMMY, AND FUTURE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AVISORIES.

RTW

...TAMMY MOVING NORTHWARD... ...HEAVY RAINS LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 23 Location: 21.9°N 63.9°W Moving: N at 7 mph Min pressure: 993 mb Max sustained: 80 mph

TAMMY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. BUT FOR NOW TAMMY IS IN A FAVORBLE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231131
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Tammy, located a few hundred miles north of the northern Leeward 
Islands. 

Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in 
association with a low pressure system located over the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for 
development, and a short-lived tropical depression could form before 
the system moves inland over Nicaragua by early Tuesday. Regardless 
of development, this system could produce heavy rains over portions 
of Central America during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

..HURRICANE TAMMY 200 PM EDT UPDATE OCT. 21, 2023..

 

Seems that the ensemble models are picking up on a blocking high pressure, and a turn back to the west.  The end of the ensemble model run seems uncertain at this time.  I will continue to watch this in the coming days.

RTW

...TAMMY VERY NEAR GUADELOUPE AND ANTIGUA... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

2:00 PM AST Sat Oct 21 Location: 16.6°N 61.2°W Moving: NW at 8 mph Min pressure: 988 mb Max sustained: 85 mph

..TAMMY TO BRING FLOODING RAINS TO MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND POSSIBLY PUERTO RICO..0500 PM UPDATE OCT. 20, 2023..

 

...TAMMY MOVING CLOSER TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...

5:00 PM AST Fri Oct 20 Location: 14.3°N 59.2°W Moving: WNW at 7 mph Min pressure: 991 mb Max sustained: 75 mph