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RTW
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms persist in association with a trough of low pressure located in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development of this system over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend as the system starts moving northeastward across the western and central part of the Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains that could result in flash flooding and mudslides over portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles through this weekend. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. 2. Offshore Southeast Coast of United States: A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form near southern Florida along a frontal boundary by tomorrow. This system is then forecast to move quickly northeastward across the Bahamas and offshore of the east coast of the U.S. through the weekend. Although development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely, this system is expected to produce gusty winds and heavy rains across portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas during the next couple of days. For more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Papin
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Miami FL 225 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 FLZ067-068-071>074-174-161800- /O.EXA.KMFL.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-231116T1800Z/ Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County- Inland Broward County-Metro Broward County-Inland Miami- Dade County-Metropolitan Miami Dade-Far South Miami-Dade County- Including the cities of Lion Country Safari Park, Wellington, Caloosa, Royal Palm Beach, The Acreage, Belle Glade, Boynton Beach, Delray Beach, Lake Worth, Palm Beach Gardens, Florida Gardens, Greenacres City, Sandalfoot Cove, Miccosukee Indian Reservation, Hollywood, Pembroke Pines, Coral Springs, Sawgrass Mills Mal, Sunrise, Davie, Miramar, Kendale Lakes, Homestead, Hialeah, Kendall, Carol City, Mahogany Hammock, and Royal Palm Ranger 225 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...East winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. * WHERE...Inland Palm Beach County, Metro Palm Beach County, Inland Broward County, Metro Broward County, Inland Miami-Dade County, Metropolitan Miami Dade and Far South Miami-Dade County. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.Mesoscale Discussion 2269NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Areas affected...portions of the Florida Keys Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 151751Z - 152015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A brief tornado/waterspout is possible over the Florida Keys over the next few hours. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been percolating in intensity over the past few hours around the FL Keys, some of which have shown occasional instances of transient low-level rotation. Mid-level lapse rates remain poor over the region. However, the combination of surface heating amid mid 70s F surface dewpoints should support 500-1000 J/kg of tall and thin SBCAPE through the afternoon. Coinciding the buoyancy axis should be increasing 850 mb flow, which would support modestly curved low-level hodographs. As such, the stronger, more persistent thunderstorms should continue to exhibit at least brief periods of low-level rotation and a tornado (or tornadic waterspout) remains possible around the FL Keys through the afternoon hours. The tornado threat however is quite sparse, so a Tornado Watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 11/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
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