..MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LATITUDE STORM SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING STORMY CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA..

 

Models are forecasting an upper level low/winter storm system that will produce storm rainy flooding rains for the southeast and a portion of Florida on Sunday and into Monday. This same system will track a broken squall line over Florida, and some areas could see strong to maybe severe thunderstorms as it tracks toward the east coast Sunday night.

CORRECTION TO FRONTS ARRIVAL BELOW!

Due to this system, Florida will see a brief warm up, Friday through Monday.  Then as this storm system moves over the Atlantic it will drag a cold front Sunday through Monday morning colder/cooler temps will return.

RTW

Excessive rainfall will be possible for the California coast as a strong winter low called pineapple express as the circulation of moisture from this low will draw in a river of moisture along a portion of the coast.  The low will also help to draw in moisture from  the Gulf as it track east and the southeast Louisiana could see flash flooding once again.  Monitor the Weather Prediction Center for the latest.

Surface Fronts and Sea-Level Pressures

..COLD TO COOL TEMPS WILL REMAIN OVER FLORIDA THROUGH THE SECOND WEEK OF FEBRUARY..

 

COLD TO COOL TEMPS WILL REMAIN OVER FLORIDA THROUGH THE SECOND WEEK OF FEBRUARY, WITH BRIEF WARM UPS IN BETWEEN AS A NEW FRONT MOVES IN TOO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR.

EL NIÑO WINTER IS TRUELY HERE, FEBRUARY SHOULD BE COLDER THAN JANUARY.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM, THE STORM PREDICITION CENTER IS NOT FORECASTING SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AND IS KEEPING THE ENVIRONMENT STABLE.  THERE WILL BE MIXED PRECIPITION SNOW/ ICE FOR SOME AREAS AS THE COLD FRONT KEEP TRACKING SOUTHEAST.  SO THOSE OF YOU WHO TRAVEL MONITOR THE WEATHER DAILY.

RTW

FORECAST TEMP MODELS

FORECAST MAP FOR THE NEXT TRHEE DAYS 

FROM WEATHER PREDICITION CENTER

FRONT ANALYSIS FORECAST MAPS SHOWS FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UNITED STATES, WHICH WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION, SNOW, ICE, RAIN, FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN STATES. 

BY SATURDAY THUNDERSTORMS  ARE POSSIBLE  FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THIS SAME FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OVER FLORIDA MAKING THE TEMPS A TAD WARMER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, INCREASING THE RAIN CHANCE FOR THE STATE, THEN COOL US DOWN OVER NIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF THE NEXT WEEK.

RTW

..SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK AND AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK..

 

MORE FLOODING POTENTIAL STAY TUNED TO WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER.

RTW

DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFAL OUTLOOK (MARGINAL/SLIGHT)

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK (GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS)

DAY 2 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK (MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK)

DAY 2 HAIL PROBABILITY (5%)

DAY 2 TORNADO PROBABILITY (2%-5%)

DAY 2 DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY (5%-15%)

..MORE FLOODING FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS EAST..

 

There is no moderate risk for excessive rainfall today, however there is a slight risk and this system still has the potential for flash floods to occur.  Visit the Storm Prediction Center and the Weather Prediction Center for the latest updates.

RTW

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK (MARGINAL RISK)

RISK AREAS:

SLIGHT	19,877	835,833	Tuscaloosa, AL...Hattiesburg, MS...Meridian, MS...Northport, AL...Selma, AL...
MARGINAL	94,397	10,397,908	New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...

DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY

RISK AREAS:

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

5 %	19,690	828,961	Tuscaloosa, AL...Hattiesburg, MS...Meridian, MS...Northport, AL...Selma, AL...
2 %	81,807	9,014,610	New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...

DAY 1 DAMAGING WINDS  PROBABILITY

RISK AREAS:

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

15 %	18,987	740,880	Hattiesburg, MS...Meridian, MS...Selma, AL...Laurel, MS...
5 %	95,093	10,451,608	New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (SLIGHT RISK)

..SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK FOR TODAY AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK..

 

There is a slight risk for severe storms today and a Moderate risk for Excessive rainfall which will produce flash floods.  Stay tuned to local media, the Storm Prediction Center and the Weather Prediction Center for the latest updates.

RTW

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK (SLIGHT RISK)

RISK AREAS

SLIGHT	25,917	3,256,414	New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Metairie, LA...Lafayette, LA...Kenner, LA...
MARGINAL	105,346	12,502,276	Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Mobile, AL...

DAY 1 HAIL PROBABILITY

RISK AREAS

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

5 %

47,577

8,770,174

Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Pasadena, TX...

DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY

RISK AREAS

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

5 %	23,761	3,181,011	New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Metairie, LA...Lafayette, LA...Kenner, LA...
2 %	21,614	1,358,030	Mobile, AL...Gulfport, MS...Hattiesburg, MS...Biloxi, MS...Prichard, AL...

DAY 1 DAMAGING WINDS PROBABILITY

RISK AREAS

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

15 %	25,886	3,255,026	New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Metairie, LA...Lafayette, LA...Kenner, LA...
5 %	87,653	10,187,878	Houston, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...Pasadena, TX...

DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK