..DAYS 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER..

 

The Storm Prediction Center 3 day outlook shows a Marginal risk for each day as another storm system tracks east firing up showers and storms all the way into Florida by day 3.  

RTW

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

MARGINAL

344,760

46,312,009

Chicago, IL...Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...

DAY 1 DAMAGING HAIL OUTLOOK

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

5 %

344,695

46,288,262

Chicago, IL...Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...

DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND OUTLOOK

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

5 %

338,513

45,687,972

Chicago, IL...Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...

DAY 1 TORNADO OUTLOOK

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

2 %

78,569

11,457,181

New Orleans, LA...Madison, WI...Baton Rouge, LA...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...

 

DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

..SPC UPGRADED TO ENHANCED RISK AND A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT..

 

ENHANCED RISK

ENHANCED	41,214	11,603,460	Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY...Aurora, IL...Dayton, OH...Rockford, IL...
SLIGHT	135,453	29,760,424	Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Milwaukee, WI...
MARGINAL	120,409	14,125,900	St. Louis, MO...Pittsburgh, PA...Springfield, MO...Springfield, IL...Clarksville, TN...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

SIG SEVERE	24,214	3,231,071	Louisville, KY...Evansville, IN...Owensboro, KY...Fairfield, OH...Columbus, IN...
10 %	24,242	3,248,751	Louisville, KY...Evansville, IN...Hamilton, OH...Owensboro, KY...Fairfield, OH...
5 %	72,890	21,797,018	Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Cincinnati, OH...Fort Wayne, IN...
2 %	102,352	19,542,269	Detroit, MI...Milwaukee, WI...Cleveland, OH...St. Louis, MO...Toledo, OH...

HAIL THREAT

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

SIG SEVERE	66,608	17,961,678	Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Milwaukee, WI...Fort Wayne, IN...Aurora, IL...
30 %	6,724	5,648,642	Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...Naperville, IL...Elgin, IL...Kenosha, WI...
15 %	152,193	32,317,653	Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Milwaukee, WI...
5 %	137,664	17,491,421	St. Louis, MO...Pittsburgh, PA...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Akron, OH...Springfield, MO...

DAMAGING WINDS THREAT

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. 

SIG SEVERE	34,833	6,055,322	Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY...Dayton, OH...Evansville, IN...Hamilton, OH...
30 %	35,015	6,039,890	Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY...Dayton, OH...Evansville, IN...Hamilton, OH...
15 %	130,404	33,510,695	Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Cleveland, OH...
5 %	124,801	15,705,070	Milwaukee, WI...St. Louis, MO...Pittsburgh, PA...Springfield, MO...Springfield, IL...

..SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY STAY ALERT!..

 

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio local media in your areas and the Storm Prediction Center for the latest updates.

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK (SLIGHT RISK)

SLIGHT	166,284	38,913,125	Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Cleveland, OH...
MARGINAL	118,734	16,034,559	Milwaukee, WI...St. Louis, MO...Pittsburgh, PA...Akron, OH...Clarksville, TN...

DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

5 %	97,559	20,159,821	Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY...Fort Wayne, IN...
2 %	82,888	21,926,498	Detroit, MI...Columbus, OH...Cleveland, OH...St. Louis, MO...Toledo, OH...

DAY 1 HAIL OUTLOOK (SIGNIFICANT RISK IN THE BLACK HATCHED AREA )

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

SIG SEVERE	81,908	20,484,530	Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Toledo, OH...Fort Wayne, IN...Aurora, IL...
15 %	157,939	37,131,999	Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Cleveland, OH...
5 %	126,824	17,758,370	Milwaukee, WI...St. Louis, MO...Pittsburgh, PA...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Akron, OH...

DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND OUTLOOK

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

15 %	166,246	38,883,643	Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Cleveland, OH...
5 %	118,672	16,047,644	Milwaukee, WI...St. Louis, MO...Pittsburgh, PA...Akron, OH...Clarksville, TN...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

..SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW FEB 27, 2024..

 

There is a slight risk for severe storms tomorrow stay tuned to the Storm Prediction Center for the latest updates.

DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTOOK

RISK AREA:

SLIGHT	113,070	25,226,465	Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...St. Louis, MO...Toledo, OH...Fort Wayne, IN...
MARGINAL	97,867	19,337,852	Detroit, MI...Columbus, OH...Milwaukee, WI...Cleveland, OH...Cincinnati, OH...

DAY 2  HAIL OUTLOOK  (SIGNIFICANT IN BLACK HATCHED AREA BELOW MAP)

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

SIG SEVERE	35,017	11,091,073	Chicago, IL...Toledo, OH...Fort Wayne, IN...Aurora, IL...Naperville, IL...
15 %	83,317	21,296,753	Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Toledo, OH...Fort Wayne, IN...Aurora, IL...
5 %	74,224	16,841,711	Detroit, MI...Milwaukee, WI...Cleveland, OH...St. Louis, MO...Grand Rapids, MI...

DAY 2 TORNADO OUTLOOK

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.

Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

5 %	30,660	6,778,941	Fort Wayne, IN...Joliet, IL...South Bend, IN...Gary, IN...Hammond, IN...
2 %	118,403	28,379,269	Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Cleveland, OH...St. Louis, MO...

DAY 2 DAMAGING WIND OUTLOOK

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

15 %	113,095	25,196,901	Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...St. Louis, MO...Toledo, OH...Fort Wayne, IN...
5 %	97,533	19,357,223	Detroit, MI...Columbus, OH...Milwaukee, WI...Cleveland, OH...Cincinnati, OH...

MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY SOUTH FLORIDA!

 

Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 181230

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0630 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024

   Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA
   KEYS AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal
   wind/tornado threat, will be possible across part of south Florida
   and the Keys today.

   ...Synopsis...
   A generally progressive shortwave pattern is expected across most of
   the CONUS.  A northeastern Pacific cyclone -- initially centered
   near 38N137W -- is forecast to approach (but stay offshore from) the
   West Coast this period.  Associated frontal forcing and large-scale
   DCVA/cooling aloft should contribute to increasing general-
   thunderstorm potential from mid/late afternoon into tonight across
   portions of northern/central CA.

   Meanwhile, a downstream/midlatitiude shortwave trough was evident in
   moisture-channel imagery over the Mid-South and Arklatex regions,
   while a southern-stream perturbation was fairly prominent in the
   same imagery over the western Gulf.  By 00Z, the midlatitude trough
   is expected to amplify and pivot from strongly positively tilted
   initially to only slightly positive over MS and the Tennessee Valley
   region.  Overnight, this perturbation should develop a closed 500-mb
   low , reaching northern GA by 12Z, with trough south-southwestward
   across the FL Panhandle to the northeastern Gulf.  As this occurs,
   the southern-stream/Gulf perturbation will eject east-northeastward
   and deamplify, reaching the extreme eastern Gulf just west of the FL
   Peninsula by 00Z.  This perturbation should cross the peninsula and
   move over Atlantic waters by 06Z. 

   In response to those developments, a slow-moving/wavy surface
   frontal zone -- analyzed at 11Z from near TMB to about 35 nm N of
   EYW -- may oscillate northward on mesobeta to local scales while
   remaining over extreme southern mainland FL for much of the day. 
   With the approach of the Gulf shortwave trough aloft, a weak/
   frontal-wave low now drawn about 200 nm west of EYW should ripple
   along the front and across south FL by 00Z, to a position just
   offshore from the FLL-PBI corridor.  As that low proceeds east-
   northeastward just north of the Bahamas, the cold front should move
   southeastward past mainland FL and the Keys by 09Z. 

   ...South FL/Keys...
   A band of convection, with isolated to scattered embedded
   thunderstorms, is apparent in satellite, distant radar and lightning
   data over the extreme eastern Gulf west of the Dry Tortugas.  This
   activity is expected to be maintained and perhaps intensify somewhat
   while move east-northeastward, affecting parts of the southern
   mainland either side of the front, as well as the Keys, from midday
   into part of the afternoon.  This activity may be preceded by more
   isolated thunderstorms developing in the warm sector and crossing
   the front.  Marginal potential exists for supercells or embedded
   LEWP/bow formations, offering a damaging-gust or brief tornado risk.
    
   A richly moist boundary layer will persist south of the front,
   characterized by surface dewpoints from the upper 60s to the low 70s
   F.  Even then, buoyancy will be weak due to poor mid/upper-level
   lapse rates, including a couple prominent stable layers noted in the
   12Z KEY sounding, which will keep peak/preconvective MLCAPE values
   generally in the 400-800 J/kg range.  The lack of more-robust
   instability/buoyancy will be a limiting factor for severe potential
   amid favorable deep shear, and potentially favorable localized
   low-level shear.  Strong mid/upper-level winds will persist, with
   flow commonly 60-75 kt in the 500-250-mb layer.  This will
   contribute to 45-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes.  Low-level
   hodographs should be long but not particularly enlarged, with the
   possible exception of localized boundary influences, such as the
   front just east of the low.

Excessive rainfall outlook

Marginal risk for severe storms

..SOME MODELS SUGGESTING AT POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, BUT NOT ACCORDING TO THE SPC DAY 2 AND 3 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK..

Well, some of the models, like the EURO, CMC, and ICON, suggest strong to maybe severe storms for southern Florida, while the GFS suggests central Florida. I will continue to monitor and will post tomorrow afternoon, depending on how I feel.  There is also a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall for a portion of Florida east coast.  Wind model suggest gusty winds 30-40 mph on Sunday with the passing of that non-tropical low.

RTW

..RAIN FOR THIS WEEKEND, SATRUDAY INTO SUNDAY..

 

Sorry for the absence I been sick with an a nasty chest cold.  

Another weather system/cold front moving in this weekend.  Rain and maybe isolated storms will be on the increase on Sunday.  I posted a video here of the HRRR model so you can see a future forecast of what it looks like in the Gulf on Saturday. It will get gusty in the Gulf as this system tracks east.  No severe storms are forecast at this time just general thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday.  I will be turning cooler again on Sunday I to next week temps in the 50's.

RTW