I am monitoring the Central Caribbean for low-pressure development and possible flood potential for Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and possibly Puerto Rico.
So far, it looks like the bulk of the heavy rains will more than likely occur off shore, where the low pressure develops.
This moisture is associated with a deep-layer trough that extends southward over South America and the Southern Caribbean. Cold fronts moving over the eastern U.S. that are tracking off the east coast will help pull this trough and the moisture north-northeast into the Atlantic.
This will enhance the storms over Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and possibly Puerto Rico through Friday. Strong storms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall are the major concern for these areas, as they could produce flooding and deadly mudslides in those mountainous areas.
Development is not expected at this time due to unfavorable upper-level conditions. Although the shear tendency model seems to show decreasing wind shear south of Haiti and Dominican Republic, it also shows upper-level shear increasing north of Dominican Republic in the coming days. So for now, it is a possible rain threat that can be deadly for those who live in flood-prone areas. Stay alert and stay ready!
The first tropical wave has been observed in the latest 12z surface map, approaching 40 west.
I will monitor it since it can interact with any moisture or lows in the South Caribbean as it moves through in the coming week. The Global Tropics Hazard Outlook latest update hints at a greater than 20% probability of tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean from June 5–11.
RTW
.png)
Euro is showing the bulk of the rainfall accumulation off the Haiti southwest coast.
GFS shows heavier rainfall accumulation also off shore over Jamaica and Eastern Cuba with accumulation of 2 to 6 inches or more over Haiti, Dominican Republic and a portion of Puerto Rico.
000
AXNT20 KNHC 221035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed May 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep layered trough currently digging southward over the western Caribbean will lift slowly northeastward across central Caribbean Thu through Fri. This feature is expected to combine with abundant tropical moisture to support widespread deep convection across eastern Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico through Fri. Latest computer model guidance suggests the highest rainfall accumulations to be across Hispaniola. Residents in all the above locations should remain alert for significant rainfall and potential flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather office for more specific information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the southern Senegal coast near 14N16.5W then curves southwestward to 07N21W. An ITCZ continues westward from 07N21W across 08N35W to 05N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09.5N between 10W and 34W, and from 06N to 10.5N between 35W and 41W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Fair and hazy skies prevail across the entire Gulf early this morning, as smoke from agricultural fires across Mexico and Central America continues to disperse across the basin. Earlier observations and satellite imagery indicated visibilities to between 4 and 6 nm across large portions of the western and central Gulf. A surface ridge extends from the eastern seaboard of the U.S. southwestward into the NE Gulf. This pressure pattern is producing gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin W of 85W, except moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the waters of the western Yucatan, including the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas are 2 to 5 ft to the W of 85W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail for the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. For the forecast, hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico will continue across all but NE portions of the Gulf through tonight. High pressure will remain NE of the basin through the end of the week, producing moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds across the waters W of 90W, and gentle to moderate winds E of 90W. Winds will become SE to S Thu night through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about the Significant Rainfall Event. A sharp mid to upper-level trough extends from the western Atlantic along 74W S-SW across west-central Cuba to the coastal waters of Panama. Meanwhile, a surface trough extends from the southwest basin NE to the east coast of Jamaica and through the Windward Passage. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring N of 14N and along and east of this surface trough to the Mona Passage and 68W, and is supported by the upper trough. Fresh to strong E to SE winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are present at the central basin N of 14N. Moderate to fresh ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are seen across the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Latest observations along with earlier satellite imagery indicate haze and smoke produced by agricultural fires in Central America are causing reduced visibilities, down to 3 to 5 nm across the the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, the deep layer trough will continue to dig southward across the western Caribbean through tonight, then lift out to the NE Thu through Sat. This feature will support active weather across the central portions of the basin, which will gradually shift NE and into the Atlc through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds in the central Caribbean today will shift northeastward tonight through Thu while diminishing to mostly fresh speeds. A broad and weak trough will prevail across the north-central Caribbean Thu night through Sat, yielding moderate trade winds across the E portions and moderate to fresh winds across NW portions of the basin. Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across the Gulf of Honduras, and spreads NW to the Yucatan coast. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A sharp mid to upper-level trough extends from 31N74W southward across the northwest Bahamas to beyond west-central Cuba. A trough extends from 31N63W to 1013 mb low pressure near 28N74.5W then continues to the Florida Keys. To the southeast, a surface trough extends through the Windward Passage to the SE Bahamas. Convergent low level wind flow to the east of this trough is producing scattered moderate convection from north of the Greater Antilles to beyond 31N, between 65W and 74W, including waters near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the NE coastal waters of Cuba. Light to gentle winds generally prevail NW of the trough across the SE Bahamas, where seas of 3 to 4 ft in NE swell. Otherwise, the Atlantic Ridge extends from NW of the Azores W-SW to the central Atlantic and then westward along 25N to 70W. The ridge is supporting gentle anticyclonic winds between 20N and 30N, to the west of 30W, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. South of the ridge and 20N, moderate trade winds prevail from the Cabo Verde Islands to the Lesser Antilles. Seas across this zone are 4 to 7 ft. Light to gentle with locally moderate monsoonal and southerly winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft in southerly swell prevail elsewhere E of 30W in the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough through the NW Bahamas will drift SE and weaken through tonight. Another trough has developed across the Windward Passage and SE Bahamas, and will drift eastward through Thu night. Weak low pressure is expected to develop along the trough just N of Hispaniola Thu night and shift N-NE through Sat night, accompanied by moderate to fresh winds and active weather. $$ Stripling
.gif)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.jpg)
.jpg)
