TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 6 2024

 

Nothing going out for now in the tropics. Some of the GFS seems to be the only one hinting at possible tropical cyclone formation in the middle to latter half of June. The Climate Prediction Center gives these areas greater than a 20% chance for formation. see below image.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061705
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Jelsema

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350 
ACCA62 KNHC 061706
TWOSAT

Perspectiva del Tiempo Tropical
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL Miami FL
200 PM EDT viernes 6 de junio de 2025

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de América:

No se espera la formación de ciclones tropicales durante los
próximos 7 días.

$$
Pronosticadora Cangialosi/Jelsema

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***

TROPICAL OULOOK JUNE 4 2025

 

I do update from my phone on Facebook. If you don't see an update here on the blog, go to this link to see the latest. If you have an account then look up Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW. If you do not have an account then try this link, you should be able to get my updates. https://www.facebook.com/letschatweather/

Not much to mention here, other than this pesky rain lingering from this low along the Carolina coast. No threat just the potential for heavy rains if these storms cells develop inland. Deep tropical moisture is being funnel in from the Caribbean due to an upper level low near the Florida Panhandle. There are no signs of organization.

RTW

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Actualizo desde mi teléfono en Facebook. Si no ves ninguna actualización aquí en el blog, ve a este enlace para ver las últimas. Si tienes una cuenta, busca Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW. Si no tienes una cuenta, prueba este enlace; deberías poder ver mis actualizaciones: https://www.facebook.com/letschatweather/

No hay mucho que mencionar, aparte de esta molesta lluvia persistente proveniente de esta baja presión a lo largo de la costa de Carolina. No hay amenaza, solo la posibilidad de fuertes lluvias si estas células de tormenta se desarrollan tierra adentro. La humedad tropical profunda se está canalizando desde el Caribe debido a una baja presión en niveles superiores cerca del Panhandle de Florida. No hay indicios de organización.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Near the Southeastern U.S. Coast:
Showers and thunderstorms located over the Florida peninsula, 
the southeastern U.S. coast, the northwestern Bahamas, and the 
adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters are associated with a broad trough 
of low pressure.  A non-tropical low pressure area is forecast to 
form from this system on Thursday, but it is becoming increasingly 
likely that this development will occur inland over South Carolina 
and North Carolina.  As a result, the low's chances of acquiring 
subtropical or tropical characteristics have diminished.  Regardless 
of development, heavy rainfall could cause some flash flooding 
along portions of the southeastern U.S. coast today and on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.


Forecaster Berg

AWAY CELEBRATING OUR 45TH ANNIVERSARY!

 

I will do brief updates from phone or laptop when possible.

Flood watch is in effect

Flood Watch

A developing area of low pressure will bring more rounds of heavy
rainfall across south Florida today. While this pattern tends to
come with a great deal of uncertainty regarding timing and placement
of the highest rain amounts, given yesterday's rainfall and the
potential for the same areas to be impacted today, the probability
of localized flash flooding is high enough to warrant a watch.

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast and southwest Florida, including the
following areas, Coastal and Metro Broward, Miami Dade, Collier,
and Mainland Monroe Counties.

* WHEN...Through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Widespread 2 to 4 inches of rain yesterday, with isolated
areas nearing 8 inches. Similar amounts are expected today
and could impact areas hit hardest yesterday.

NHC IS NOW MONITORING A NON-TROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.. ..NOT RELATED WITH THE TROPICS BUT HEAVYS RAINS EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW.

The National Hurricane Center has posted an investigation for a non-tropical low off the southeast U.S. coast. See below for the latest. 

I do have to mention heavy rainfall is possible for today and tomorrow due to a stalled frontal boundary north of Lake Okeechobee. This boundary is enhancing storms on the Gulf and Atlantic sides over the Bahamas and over a portion of Florida today and tomorrow. Some showers and storms could be severe at times with heavy rains that can produce localized flooding in poor drainage areas. This will begin later this afternoon and into the evening hours. Please don't drive through flooded roads that seem to be too deep. If you're not sure, "turn around and don't drown!"

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021721
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Offshore of the Southeastern U.S. Coast
A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form near or 
offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast during the next couple of 
days. If the system remains offshore, the low could gradually 
develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics later this 
week while moving northeastward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

----------------------------------------------------------------

720 
ACCA62 KNHC 021723
TWOSAT

Perspectiva del Tiempo Tropical
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
200 PM EDT lunes 2 de junio de 2025

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de América:

Mar adentro de la costa sureste de los Estados Unidos Se pronostica
que un área no tropical de baja presión se formará cerca o en alta
mar de la costa sureste de los Estados Unidos durante los próximos
dos días. Si el sistema permanece en alta mar, la baja podría
desarrollar gradualmente algunas características subtropicales o
tropicales más tarde esta semana mientras se mueve hacia el noreste
a 10 a 15 mph.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...cerca del 0 por
ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...baja...10 por ciento.

$$
Pronosticador Reinhart

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***

STILL MONITORING THE MODELS FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING MID JUNE!

 

The tropics remain quiet for now, but all indicators are suggesting that it will be another busy hurricane season. So we need to enter this season prepared and ready for whatever Mother Nature sends our way. Being that we live in the path of these storms, eventually one will come our way, and not being ready will make it much more difficult to recover quickly. Get to know your neighbors and make plans in the event a disaster strikes our area. Learn first aid and CPR/AED and how to triage an injured victim. There are CERT (Community Emergency Response Team) classes that will teach disaster first aid and triage. Call your local fire department and ask them if they offer these classes. There usually are three classes, but some are finishing them up in two days. I am not liking the idea of entering this season not being prepared. We are not immune to hurricanes, so don't become complacent. LET'S BE STORM READY!

National Hurricane Center

479 
ABNT20 KNHC 012321
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

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103 
ACCA62 KNHC 012322
TWOSAT

Perspectiva del Tiempo Tropical
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
800 PM EDT domingo 1 de junio de 2025

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de América:

No se espera la formación de ciclones tropicales durante los
próximos 7 días.

$$
Pronosticador Kelly

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***

MIDDLE OF JUNE THE EURO AND THE AMERICAN ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT!

 

Well, so far two of the ensemble models, the American and the Euro, continue to hint at development in the middle of June, between June 11 and 18. I will continue to monitor for any tropical cyclone formation during that time.

RTW

National Hurricane Center

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301128
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. 

$$
Forecaster Hagen

------------------------------------------------------------------

066 
ACCA62 KNHC 301129
TWOSAT

Perspectiva del Tiempo Tropical
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
800 AM EDT viernes 30 de mayo de 2025

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de América:

No se espera la formación de ciclones tropicales durante los
próximos 7 días.

$$
Pronosticador Hagen

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***

UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE IN THE 
CARRIBAN OR THE GULF OF AMERICA AT THIS TIME

DRY AIR IS IN THE ORANGE REDS AND MAROON COLORS.
THE DARKER THE DRYER IT IS IN THE UPPER LEVELS