..TROPICAL OUTLOOK AUG 3, 2026..

 

According to the National Hurricane Center, tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next seven days. Three tropical waves are being monitored, but at this time none are showing signs of organization or development.

Upper-level winds have once again relaxed over the Gulf of America and east coast. Areas within the green lines indicate favorable upper-level wind conditions for tropical development, yellow denotes neutral or only marginally favorable conditions, and within the red hostile, unfavorable upper-level wind conditions. I will keep an eye on the Gulf and along the eastern seaboard since most of the models show development.

Google DeepMind's AI Ensemble models shows some signs of potential weakness in development, but nothing significant at this point.

 

This Google DeepMind Ensemble models shows the potential for stronger system development in the Caribbean and along the U.S. East Coast. Note these forecast and are subject to change and are questionable. 

The GEFS American Ensemble models also showing possible development.

The Euro Ensemble models show development as well. Seems like activity will pick the latter half of this month.  

The EURO AI model is showing several possible developments in the Atlantic. I guess we'll all have to wait and see!

An unsettled weather pattern across the southeastern United States and the adjacent Atlantic is enhancing showers and thunderstorms along the Southeast coast, across Florida, and extending southward over Cuba.

...BERTHA MORNING UPDATE JULY 22, 2026...

 

This morning's satellite analysis indicates that Bertha's low-level center remains exposed and largely devoid of deep convection. Three primary atmospheric factors continue to negatively impact the system:

• Bertha's center of circulation remains in close proximity to the coastline and is tracking over cooler, shallow coastal waters.
• Dry air continues to be entrained into the center of circulation.
• Persistent upper-level northerly wind shear is inhibiting convective development.

However, the latest CIMSS wind shear tendency analysis indicates that vertical wind shear has decreased somewhat over the past 24 hours. As of 1200 UTC, the analysis shows marginally favorable conditions extending from eastern Louisiana to the Texas coast, with favorable conditions present from northern Louisiana into northern Texas and Oklahoma. This reduction in shear could allow Bertha to maintain tropical storm intensity until it reaches the Texas coast.

Regardless of its intensity at landfall, heavy rainfall is expected to be Bertha's primary hazard across portions of Texas.

RTW

Spanish version;

El análisis satelital de esta mañana indica que el centro de circulación de Bertha permanece expuesto y prácticamente desprovisto de convección profunda. Tres factores atmosféricos continúan afectando negativamente al sistema:

• El centro de circulación de Bertha permanece muy cerca de la costa y se desplaza sobre aguas costeras poco profundas y más frías.
• El aire seco continúa infiltrándose en el centro de circulación.
• La cizalladura vertical del viento del norte en niveles altos sigue inhibiendo el desarrollo de la convección.

Sin embargo, el análisis de la tendencia de la cizalladura del viento del CIMSS indica que la cizalladura vertical ha disminuido ligeramente durante las últimas 24 horas. A las 1200 UTC, el análisis muestra condiciones marginalmente favorables desde el este de Luisiana hasta la costa de Texas, y condiciones favorables desde el norte de Luisiana hacia el norte de Texas y Oklahoma. Esta disminución de la cizalladura podría permitir que Bertha conserve la intensidad de tormenta tropical hasta alcanzar la costa de Texas.

Independientemente de su intensidad al tocar tierra, las lluvias intensas serán, con toda probabilidad, la principal amenaza asociada con Bertha para amplias zonas de Texas.

RTW

The brown and darker maroon colors in this water vapor imagery indicate dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere.

Los colores marrón y granate oscuro en esta imagen de vapor de agua indican aire seco en los niveles medios de la atmósfera.

National Hurricane Center

...CENTER OF BERTHA WOBBLING SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...

10:00 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 Location: 29.8°N 88.6°W Moving: WNW at 6 mph Min pressure: 998 mb Max sustained: 50 mph

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO AFTERNOON UPDATE...

 

Tropical Depression Two remains in a weak steering environment and is drifting slowly toward the northwest. The latest upper-level wind guidance indicates that conditions over the northern Gulf are currently unfavorable for significant development.

The CIMSS Shear Tendency model also suggests that wind shear will increase across the Gulf of America. Despite these unfavorable factors, several intensity models continue to forecast strengthening to tropical storm intensity. If that occurs, the system is expected to be named Bertha later this afternoon or evening.

I have shared several model solutions that depict the system eventually turning westward while weakening before reaching Texas, if it reaches the Texas coast at all. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts and advisories from the National Hurricane Center for the most up-to-date information.

RTW

Spanish Version;

La Depresión Tropical Dos permanece en un entorno con corrientes de dirección débiles y continúa desplazándose lentamente hacia el noroeste. Los modelos más recientes de vientos en niveles altos indican que las condiciones sobre el noreste del Golfo de América son actualmente desfavorables para un fortalecimiento significativo.

El modelo Shear Tendency del CIMSS también sugiere un aumento de la cizalladura vertical del viento en el Golfo de América. A pesar de estas condiciones poco favorables, varios modelos de intensidad continúan pronosticando que el sistema alcanzará la categoría de tormenta tropical. De ocurrir, se espera que sea nombrado Bertha durante la tarde o noche de hoy.

He compartido varios modelos que muestran un giro gradual hacia el oeste, con un debilitamiento del sistema antes de llegar a Texas, si es que finalmente alcanza esa zona. Continúe monitoreando los pronósticos y avisos más recientes del Centro Nacional de Huracanes para obtener la información más actualizada.

RTW