Friday, April 21, 2017
ARLENE NOW IN THE HISTORY BOOK SECOND TROPICAL CYCLONE IN APRIL
NHC Atlantic OpsVerified account @NHC_Atlantic
5 hours ago
#Arlene is now in the record books as the last advisory has been issued. Here's a look at the 2017 NHC track board. http://hurricanes.gov
RAIN RELIEF ON THE WAY SOUTH FLORIDA!
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAIN AND STORM CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND.
WPLG Local 10 NewsVerified account @WPLGLocal10 47m47 minutes ago
WPLG Local 10 NewsVerified account @WPLGLocal10 47m47 minutes ago
The weekend could end with drought relief Sunday. Models indicate parts of #SOFLO could get more than 2" of rain.
SORRY I HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO UPDATE BLOG TODAY AS USUAL..
Have daughter in hospital this morning and trapped person in elevator in my building at work so its been very hepatic and now is when I am getting a chance to update blog and website. When it rains it pours.
RTW
RTW
...ARLENE A BIT STRONGER... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN GULF...
ARLENE A BIT STRONGER THIS EVENING BUT IT STILL FORECAST TO MERGE WITH EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW AND DISSIPATE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN GULF IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS TRACKING TOWARD FLORIDA AND WILL MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ENHANCE SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCE ON SUNDAY AND MAYBE MONDAY. NON OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME.
Thursday, April 20, 2017
UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY FORECAST
Tonight Apr 20, 2017
Partly cloudy:
Lows around 72°F. East wind to 14 MPH.
Friday Apr 21
Partly cloudy
during the day: Highs around 82°F. East wind 8 to 14 MPH.
Partly cloudy
during the night: Lows around 72°F. East wind to 11 MPH.
Saturday Apr 22
Partly cloudy
with isolated showers during the day: Highs
around 82°F. East southeast wind to 13
MPH.
Partly cloudy
with scattered showers night: Lows
around 73°F. East southeast wind to 11
MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Sunday Apr 23
Partly cloudy
with scattered showers during the day: Highs around 82°F. Southeast wind to 10
MPH. Chance of rain 50
percent.
Partly cloudy
with scattered showers during the night: Lows around 73°F. South wind to 9 MPH. Chance
of rain 50
percent.
Monday Apr 24
Partly cloudy
with scattered showers during the day: Highs
around 84°F. West northwest wind to 12
MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Partly cloudy
with scattered showers during the night: Lows around 70°F. West wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 30
percent.
Tuesday Apr 25
Mostly sunny during
the day: Highs around 82°F. Northwest wind to 9 MPH.
Mostly clear
during the night: Lows around 70°F. West
southwest wind to 9 MPH.
Wednesday Apr 26
Mostly sunny
during the day: Highs around 82°F. West wind to 5 MPH, gusting to 10 MPH.
Mostly clear
during the night: Lows around 73°F. South wind to 6 MPH.
FORECAST MAPS ARE COURTESY OF THE N.W.S. IN MIAMI FLORIDA
TO ME THIS IS NOT NORMAL TO SEE SUB-TROPICAL TURN TROPICAL IN 19°C TEMPS
Hmm...
this satellite imagery shows a better overall cloud pattern tropical
not sub-tropical and just check this system has transitions to a
tropical depression in 19°C sea surface temps. Geo-Storm or what, it
makes you wonder. There are no logic's behind this, when these tropical
systems are defying all meteorological standards of a tropical system
development in an unfavorable environment. You can almost begin to name
this one since it has an eye like feature.
NHC says "This transition is a common process..." I say yes it would be to see a sub-tropical system turn tropical in nature, but not in 19°C seas surface temps. This is not a normal transition folks. 19°C = 66.2°F...Tropical.
Wiki:
There are six main requirements for tropical cyclogenesis: sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures, atmospheric instability, high humidity in the lower to middle levels of the troposphere, enough Coriolis force to develop a low pressure center, a preexisting low level focus or disturbance, and low vertical wind shear.
Normally, an ocean temperature of 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) spanning through at least a 50-metre depth is considered the minimum to maintain the special mesocyclone that is the tropical cyclone.[3] These warm waters are needed to maintain the warm core that fuels tropical systems. This value is well above 16.1 °C (60.9 °F), the global average surface temperature of the oceans.
NHC says "This transition is a common process..." I say yes it would be to see a sub-tropical system turn tropical in nature, but not in 19°C seas surface temps. This is not a normal transition folks. 19°C = 66.2°F...Tropical.
Wiki:
There are six main requirements for tropical cyclogenesis: sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures, atmospheric instability, high humidity in the lower to middle levels of the troposphere, enough Coriolis force to develop a low pressure center, a preexisting low level focus or disturbance, and low vertical wind shear.
Normally, an ocean temperature of 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) spanning through at least a 50-metre depth is considered the minimum to maintain the special mesocyclone that is the tropical cyclone.[3] These warm waters are needed to maintain the warm core that fuels tropical systems. This value is well above 16.1 °C (60.9 °F), the global average surface temperature of the oceans.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISSIPATING AS IT MERGES WITH STRONGER LOW
TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE IS GRADUALLY LOSING SUB-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
MERGES WITH AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW MUCH STRONGER THAN THE DEPRESSION.
DISSIPATING RATHER FAST AND WE MAY SEE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED TONIGHT
OR TOMORROW MORNING.
RTW
PLEASE SUPPORT MY WEBSITE: http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
RTW
PLEASE SUPPORT MY WEBSITE: http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
Wednesday, April 19, 2017
SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE EXPECTED TO MERGE AND DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY
A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW TRACKING EAST TOWARD SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WILL ABSORB THE DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY. THE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT TRACKS OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. ONLY A THREAT TO SHIPPING.
RTW
RTW
UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY FORECAST
Tonight Apr 19, 2017
Partly cloudy
with isolated showers: Lows around 73°F. East wind 7 to 13
MPH, gusting to 21 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday Apr 20
Partly cloudy
with isolated showers during the day: Highs around 82°F. East wind 9 to 16
MPH, gusting to 23 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Partly cloudy Night: Lows around 72°F. East wind to 14 MPH,
gusting to 21 MPH.
Friday Apr 21
Mostly sunny
during the day: Highs around 82°F. East wind to 13 MPH.
Mostly clear
during the night: Lows around 73°F. East wind 5 to 12 MPH.
Saturday Apr 22
Partly cloudy
with isolated showers during the day: Highs
around 84°F. East southeast wind 5 to 14
MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Partly cloudy
with isolated showers during the night: Lows
around 75°F. East southeast wind to 11
MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday Apr 23
Partly cloudy
with isolated showers during the day: Highs
around 84°F. Southeast wind 6 to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Partly cloudy
with isolated showers during the Night: Lows around 73°F. South wind to 8 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Monday Apr 24
Partly cloudy
with isolated showers during the day: Highs
around 84°F. West wind to 10 MPH. Chance
of rain 30 percent.
Partly cloudy
with isolated showers during the night: Lows
around 70°F. West northwest wind 4 to 9
MPH, gusting to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tuesday Apr 25
Mostly sunny
during the day: Highs around 81°F. West northwest wind to 8 MPH.
Mostly clear
during the night: Lows around 68°F. East northeast wind to 8 MPH.
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